2016年日本经济面临的三个挑战

Joshua Kennedy  2015年12月30日

在1989年日本泡沫经济达到顶峰后的25年里，日本经济一直处于泥潭中，只有几个短暂的好转，通货紧缩、资产和一些商品价格的停滞或者下跌一直严重影响日本经济。2013年，首相安倍晋三推出了有史以来结束通货紧缩最大的举措，统称为安倍经济政策的一系列刺激和改革措施。在2016年，有三个因素能决定日本经济是否能健康复苏。

工资增长

首相安倍曾向日本公司施压提高工人工资，他相信这将创造消费者消费的良性循环，提高企业利润并进一步创造工资增长的空间。相应的，执政党将会在2016年4月将公司税率从32%下降到30%。如果安倍能成功说服公司将节省下来的税金转变成员工工资，将能够刺激消费，相应的将有助经济增长。

增值税

由于2014年日本增值税的增加，消费型开支受到了干扰。日本政府债务金额巨大，约占GDP的250%，因此政府尽可能的提高其收入。计划在2017年将增值税提高到10%。2014年的增值税增加曾引起消费者的强烈反对，同时他们强烈要求延迟2017年的增值税增加。2016年的消费者开支将会被密切关注以确定经济是否能承担来年的增值税增加，这个决定将会在2016年年底之前做出。

日元的价值

自2012年以来日元的价值下跌了接近30%，这为公司盈利带来了福音。日本生产型企业的竞争对手主要来自韩国、台湾和中国大陆，日元的价值是其产品竞争力的重要因素。日元疲软使日本产品在海外的竞争力上升，获利的美元和欧元又换回了大量的日元，提高了本土货币计价的利润。

日元疲软的代价：降低许多日本进口商的购买力，尤其是食品和能源产品。而进口商品价格的上涨有助支持通胀，更高的价格也可能对需求有负面影响。日本央行必须尽其所能使疲软水平能影响生产商但是不影响消费者需求。美联储加息使这变得更加困难。

安倍经济政策必须实现

安倍经济政策已经进行了一些有意义的改革。值得注意的是电力行业的自由化、跨太平洋伙伴关系和公司治理的变化。批评家认为需要做的还有很多，尤其是劳动力管理和移民领域。因为日本的老龄化和巨大政府债务，时间非常紧迫。2016年是关键的一年，将决定日本经济是否能够复苏。

3 Economic Challenges Japan Faces in 2016 

By Joshua Kennedy | December 30, 2015 

In the 25 years since Japan's bubble economy peaked in 1989, the Japanese economy has struggled, with only a few periods of brief respite, with deflation, the stagnation or decline of prices of assets and many goods. In 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched Japan's most serious effort to end Japan's deflationary struggle, a series of stimulus and reform packages collectively known as Abenomics. In 2016, three critical factors will determine the health of Japan's economic recovery.

Wage Growth

Prime Minister Abe has pressured Japanese companies to raise wages for workers, which he believes will create a virtuous circle of increased consumer spending, resulting in higher corporate profits that will create room for further wage increases. As an enticement, the ruling coalition plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 32% to 30% in April 2016. If Prime Minister Abe is successful in convincing corporate executives to spend the tax savings on wage increases, it should goose consumer spending, which should in turn boost growth.

Value-Added Tax

Consumer spending has struggled, in part, due to the 2014 increase in Japan's value-added tax (VAT), from 5 to 8%. Japan's national debt is enormous as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), at nearly 250%, and the government needs to raise revenue where it can. The VAT is currently scheduled to increase further in 2017 to 10%. Consumers struggled mightily with the 2014 increase, and there is significant disagreement within the government as to whether the scheduled 2017 increase should be postponed. Consumer spending in 2016 will be closely watched as a determining factor of whether the economy can withstand another increase in the tax next year – a decision likely to be made before the end of 2016.

The Value of the Japanese Yen

The value of the yen has declined approximately 30% since 2012, which has been a boon for corporate profits. Japanese manufacturing competes primarily with Korean, Taiwanese and Chinese companies, and the value of the yen is a significant factor in the price competitiveness of those products. The weaker yen has made Japanese products more compelling overseas, and profits earned in U.S. dollars or euros convert back into greater amounts of yen, boosting locally denominated profits.

The weaker yen has come with a cost: reduced buying power for Japan's many imports, particularly food and energy. While higher prices for imported goods helps support inflation, higher prices can also have a chilling effect on demand. The Bank of Japan must do what it can to strike a careful balance between a yen level that is weak enough for Japanese manufacturers but not so weak that it inhibits consumer demand. The Federal Reserve's commencement of a rate-hiking cycle only complicates this task.

Abenomics Must Deliver

Abenomics has already delivered some meaningful reforms. Of note are liberalization of the electricity industry, participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and implementation of changes in corporate governance. Critics maintain there is much more to do, particularly in the areas of labor regulation and immigration. Because of Japan's graying demographic profile and enormous national debt, time is growing short. 2016 will be a critical year to determine if the economy in the Land of the Rising Sun can rise again.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/123015/3-economic-challenges-japan-faces-2016.asp