Ted Meyer  2016年1月6日

石油价格的持续下降成为了美国经济在新一年增长的部分原因，然而在俄罗斯情况却没有这么乐观。由于其经济严重依赖石油和天然气的出口，石油价格下跌已经重创俄罗斯经济。此外，俄罗斯卢布在2015年下半年持续贬值，而且俄罗斯经济在11月出现了几个月增长之后的萎缩。所有的这些消息引出一个问题：俄罗斯经济在2016年会崩溃吗？

石油价格下跌，卢布贬值

在年末，石油价格下跌到37美元每桶，而2015年春天时约60美元每桶。石油和天然气出口占俄罗斯GDP的44%，因此，卢布在全年中持续下跌。年尾时跌到73.2卢布兑1美元。最重要的是，在几个月的微小增长之后，俄罗斯经济在11月出现下跌，在第三季度末，俄罗斯GDP与上一年同期相比下降4.1%。简而言之，几乎没有俄罗斯经济在2016年能变强的信号。

任何试图对2016年俄罗斯经济的预测大部分都根据对石油价格的预测，然而不幸的是这些预测都很悲观。虽然一些人认为石油价格在2016年将会有些好转，但是油价在2015年下半年的下跌非常巨大，而且不可能在短期内恢复到更高的水平。

现在的石油价格下跌主要是因为供应过剩。在这方面，主要的原因是石油输出国组织国家拒绝削减原油产量。12月在维也纳的会议上，12个石油输出国组织国家的代表未能就削减原油产量达成共识。国际原油价格的上涨主要依赖供应的减少，除非石油输出国组织能控制产量否则价格回升不太可能实现。

但是原油价格下跌也存在需求方面的问题，主要是因为中国需求的下降。这有一部分原因是经济增长放缓，这一情况在近期将会持续。但是中国对石油需求的下降不仅仅是因为其经济增长速度放缓。在去年与美国签订的全球气候变化协定中，中国将致力于永久削减石油消耗。即使中国在2016年经济增长增速，削减二氧化碳排放的长期计划将限制中国对石油的需求。

虽然石油价格不全受俄罗斯控制，他们也没有做出应有的努力控制石油价格。虽然俄罗斯的石油供应远低于石油输出国组织，但是俄罗斯仍然是一个巨大的供应问题。在过去两个月中，俄罗斯的石油开采又创下了新的记录，严重加剧了当前市场的供应过剩。虽然俄罗斯本身遭受到油价下跌的严重影响，他们却使当前的问题更加严重。

这对俄罗斯能源和财政官员来说是个非常困难的情况。由于石油出口在其收入占得比例非常大，俄罗斯生产商只能提高产量以弥补价格的下跌。但是与此同时，由于现在的需求不足，他们输入石油的增加使问题更加严峻。

不幸的是，俄罗斯经济现在的下跌只是由于经济建设的不成功。俄罗斯对石油的依赖没有石油输出国组织国家那么严重，但是其他能增长的板块非常有限。普京在国际政治中持续强硬导致了大多数西方国家的严重制裁，此外，俄罗斯对贷款机构和石油生产商进行了多年的经济援助。所有这些都使俄罗斯经济进一步恶化。

总结

许多经济体都能经受住这些问题，但是俄罗斯由于其结构性问题可能很难摆脱困境。普京在国际舞台上的强硬态度短期看起来不会消失，俄罗斯对石油出口的依赖也一样。即使石油价格能够回升，俄罗斯在2016年的经济前景也非常严峻。

How Bad Will It Get for Russia in 2016? 

By Ted Meyer | January 06, 2016 

While the continued free fall of oil prices has contributed in part to another year of growth for the United States economy, the picture is much less rosy in Russia. With an economy that is highly dependent on oil and gas exports, the shrinking oil prices have hit Russia hard. Furthermore, the Russian ruble (RUB) has steadily weakened in the second half of 2015, and in November the Russian GDP shrank after a few months of incremental growth. All of this bad news begs a question: is Russia’s economy headed for collapse in 2016?

Sliding Oil, Sliding Ruble

At the year's end, the price of crude oil had fallen to $37 per barrel, down from about $60 per barrel in spring 2015. Oil and gas exports make up about 44% of the Russian GDP, and consequently, the ruble has tumbled all year; at year's end, it had fallen to 73.2 rubles to the dollar. On top of that, the Russian economy contracted in November after a few months of inconsequential growth—by the end of the third quarter, Russia’s GDP was down 4.1% from a year ago. In short, there are almost no strong indicators for Russia going into 2016.

Any attempts to predict the trajectory of the Russian economy in 2016 rest largely on projections of oil prices, and unfortunately for Russia, the projections are not strong. While some believe that oil is due for a turnaround sometime in 2016, the price collapse in the second half of 2015 was precipitous, and there are a number of reasons to believe that it won't get better anytime soon. 

The oil slowdown is largely a result of a current glut in supply. In this respect, one of the biggest problems has been the continued apparent refusal of OPEC nations to slow their production of crude oil. At a December meeting in Vienna, representatives from the 12 OPEC nations failed to agree on a drop in production levels despite the nearly 18-month collapse in oil prices. Any recovery in global oil prices is largely contingent upon a reduction in supply, and until OPEC asserts control over productions levels a price rebound is probably unlikely. 

But oil collapse also has demand-side problems, largely related to a major shrinkage in Chinese consumption. This is partly as a result of their slowing growth, which is widely projected to continue for the near future. But the Chinese decrease in oil demand isn't just related to their economic slowdown. Between last year’s joint climate change agreement with the United States and the stipulations of the recent Paris agreements, China seems committed to a permanent slowdown in their consumption of oil. Even if China’s economy starts growing more quickly in 2016, the long-term plan to reduce China’s carbon footprint indicates a long-term downturn in demand for oil from what has been one of its biggest consumers.

A Formula for Failure

While the global price of oil isn’t entirely in Russia’s control, they are also not doing their share to help solve the problem. Russia contributes far less to the global oil supply than the collective nations of OPEC, but Russia is nevertheless a big part of the supply problem. For the last two months, Russian oil producers have been pumping out record amounts of oil, seriously exacerbating the current supply glut in the oil market. Even as Russia is suffering the effects of the dropping oil prices, they are simultaneously making the problem even worse. 

This is a difficult situation for Russian energy and finance officials. With such a high percentage of revenue coming from oil sales, Russian producers have little choice but to ramp up production to make up for the decline in prices. But at the same time, they are making the problem much worse by continuing to flood the market with a product for which there simply isn’t enough demand right now.

Unfortunately for Russia, the current slowdown is simply the result of an economy that isn’t built for success. Russia’s dependence on oil doesn’t quite put on par with truly single-industry countries like many of the OPEC nations, but they have very few options for growth in other sectors. The persistent recalcitrance of Vladimir Putin on the global political stage has led to a series of stringent economic sanctions from most Western countries; furthermore, Russia has spent much of the year bailing out both lending institutions and oil producers, tapping into one of the nation's sovereign wealth funds early in 2015 to that end. All of this has backed Russia further into a corner.

The Bottom Line

Many economies could weather some of these problems, but one with Russia’s structural problems can hardly be expected to do so. Putin’s quarrelsome demeanor on the world stage doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon, nor does Russia’s dependence on oil exports. Even if oil prices do eventually pick up, the 2016 prognosis for the Russian economy looks very grim. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010616/how-bad-will-it-get-russia-2016.asp