苹果股票究竟是价值股还是价值陷阱

苹果公司股价在周三跌破100美元，这是2014年10月以来从未发生过的事。华尔街因此展开了热论，在预期增长缓慢的2016财年，苹果股票是否被高估了。

去年夏天，太平洋证券分析家 Andy Hargreaves 预测，苹果的 iPhone 产品会在2016财年逐渐疲软，但他告诉投资者：“这不是问题。”九月发布的 iPhone 6S 和 6S Plus 不能算作新产品，只能算作产品升级。此外，苹果提高了 iPhone 在中国的价格，因此2015财年的收益是难以匹敌的。

本周，据华尔街日报报道，苹果减少了中国地区的供应量，这对整个供应链都产生了影响。投资者因此感到恐慌，苹果股价骤跌至99.87美元，在周三收盘时恢复至100.70美元。

在美国 CNBC 频道，专家们认为跌破100美元是暂时的，因此展开了热论讨论。投资者们最在意的是，苹果股票究竟是价值股票还是价值陷阱，究竟是当前价格低于同类公司股票还是苹果股票会继续下跌。

Wedbush Securities 的股票交易主管 Ian Winer 是个看跌主义者，他认为苹果的好日子已经过去了。

Winer 曾在 CNBC 表示：“苹果股票是支科技股，也是成长股，它的市值约为6000亿美元。这不是一支尚未成长的股票，它的成长期已经过去了。这是支科技股，以我的经验来看，科技领域的价值股是行不通的。”

确实，在2016财年，苹果增长的大步伐正在逐渐放缓。最大的问题是，iPhone 的下一个版本能否引领新一年的销售狂潮。苹果手表的销量也低于华尔街的预期。

根据 FactSet Research 的数据，华尔街一致认为苹果公司2016财年的总收益会达到2419亿美元，较2015财年的1828亿美元增长3.5%。2015财年收益增长了27.8%，而2016财年的增长可能会缩水至个位数。

而另一些人认为，苹果持有的现金虽然是美国公司中最多的，但它的本质就是一支便宜股。华尔街日报反驳道，苹果 iPhone 的预期已经被低估，虽然投资者一直迷恋于苹果股票，就像亚马逊和奈飞公司一样，但苹果的盈利能力不容小觑。日报中写道：“苹果公司上一季度的收益比两家公司创立以来的全部收益之合还要多。”

但是投资者还是希望股票上涨，尤其是科技股。在苹果公司展现出下一个大成果之前，投资者都会对其持有怀疑的态度。再次强调，投资者会加倍关注下一个iPhone 产品。iPhone 7会不会发布，发布后反响如何，这些问题至关重要。2016财年是它们自己挖的坑吗？还是说增长放缓意味着一个新的常态？

Is Apple a value stock or a value trap? 

Apple Inc.’s stock dipped briefly under $100 on Wednesday, a territory not seen since October 2014, fueling a debate on Wall Street over whether or not it is overvalued, amid ongoing expectations of slower growth in fiscal 2016.

Last summer, Pacific Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves predicted that Apple’sAAPL, -1.96% iPhone units were likely to decline in fiscal 2016, “and that’s OK,” he wrote in a note to investors. The most recent iPhone entrants that hit the market in September — the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus — were seen as improvements but not major design upgrades. In addition, Apple had a big uptick with the iPhone in China, also making fiscal 2015 a tough compare.

This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple scaled back on orders for iPhones from its suppliers in China, which has had ramifications throughout the supply chain. This news rattled investors and Apple fell in intraday trading to $99.87 but recovered, closing at $100.70 on Wednesday.

On CNBC, though, the drop below $100, however temporary, fueled a debate among the pundits. The core of the issue for many investors is whether Apple is a value stock or a value trap — is the stock trading at a value less than its peers or a stock that appears to be cheap, based on fundamentals, including its vast cash holdings, but never recovers to its estimated full value.

One of the more bearish investors, Ian Winer, director of equities trading at Wedbush Securities, said he believes Apple’s best days are behind it.

“It’s a tech stock that was a growth stock that still has a market cap of about $600 billion,” Winer said earlier on CNBC. “It’s not like you are buying a stock that has all this growth in front of it. You are buying a stock where the best days are over. It’s a tech stock, and value stocks in tech just do not work in my experience.”

Indeed, Apple’s spectacular growth is slowing in fiscal 2016. The big question is whether or not the next version of the iPhone will eventually propel another year of barnstorming quarters, if and when the iPhone 7 is launched. The Apple Watch could also eventually take off, but so far the smartwatch’s sales have been slower than many on Wall Street had anticipated.

For fiscal 2016, which ends in September, the consensus on Wall Street, according to FactSet Research, is for Apple to see total revenue of $241.9 billion, up 3.5% from $182.8 billion in 2015. That single-digit growth is a steep tumble from 2015’s growth rate, when revenue surged 27.8%.

Others argue that Apple, which has the largest pile of cash held by a U.S. company, is a cheap stock. The Wall Street Journal argued that its current market value has already baked in the lowered expectations for the iPhone, and that while investors are enamored with growth, such as the Street’s current infatuation over Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.18%  and Netflix Inc. NFLX, +9.31% Apple’s earnings power should not be discounted. “Apple earned more in its last quarter than those two companies have in their entire existence — combined,” the Journal wrote.

But investors do want growth, especially in tech. Until Apple starts showing some serious growth again, there will be an increasing number of investors who argue it is veering close to a value trap. Once again, investors will be focused on Apple’s next yet-to-be launched iPhone and whether or not it will be its next big thing. Will fiscal 2016 represent a trough it digs itself out of, or does this slower growth represent a new normal?

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

原文地址：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-apple-a-value-stock-or-a-value-trap-2016-01-0