虽然欧洲央行本月发布了比较温和的量化宽松政策，但也给期待进一步宽松的人们留下一点安慰：行长 Mario Draghi 表示，在必要的情况下，欧洲央行会实施进一步量化宽松政策。但会不会在明年发布呢？瑞士信贷的答案是：“不会。”
要想了解原因就要先知晓央行对本次宽松政策加以限制的原因。瑞士信贷指出，欧洲央行公布的唯一的实质性刺激政策就是将存款利率由-0.2%降至-0.3%。欧洲央行行长在上个月表达了想要“尽快”提高通胀率的意图，很多投资者受此鼓舞，期待着央行继续降息。在12月3日欧洲央行发布公告后，欧元兑美元的汇率猛涨，短期的外部债券大量卖空，使得这些投资者非常失望。
但近几个月的经济数据表明，欧洲并不合适采取更多的刺激性政策。一系列指标显示欧洲大陆的经济增长达到1.5%，高于趋势线，瑞士信贷也认为欧洲在2016年的经济前景会好于过去的十年。瑞士信贷欧洲经济部门主管 Neville Hill 最近评论道：“现在没有需要央行挽救的紧急情况。”
在欧洲央行官员眼中，欧元兑美元疲软才是万分紧要的，由于万众期待的美联储加息，欧元兑美元持续贬值。联邦公开市场委员会九年以来首次宣布利率上调，在12月16日的会议中，利率上调25个基点，达到0.25%-0.5%。Hill 表示，此举有助于降低美联储加息的难度。
还有什么理由会让欧洲央行重启量化宽松政策吗？最有可能的原因就是通胀率过低。今年的整体通胀率已经接近于0，而核心通胀率的上升趋势已经停止。央行预计明年的通胀率约为1%。如果核心通胀率下降或者整体通胀率没有增加，都会促使央行重启量化宽松政策。以上两种情况发生的可能性还有待考证，但瑞士信贷认为核心通胀率的波动极为古怪，它不是稳定的下降趋势，而稳定的能源价格本应促进整体通胀增加。
推动进一步量化宽松政策的因素有三个：欧元大幅升值，油价大幅下跌或是欧元区经济增长骤然恶化。如果没有上述三种情况发生，欧洲央行不太可能在明年采取宽松政策。考虑到当前欧洲央行和美联储相反的货币政策，欧元区的收益曲线会变得极陡，而美国的收益曲线会趋于平坦。
When Doves Cry: The End of QE in the ECB
While the European Central Bank announced tamer-than-expected quantitative easing measures this month, it also offered a bit of reassurance to those counting on a broader QE program: bank president Mario Draghi said that the ECB was prepared, if necessary, to implement further easing. But is more easing actually likely in the coming year? Credit Suisse believes the answer is “no.”
To understand why, it’s important to look at what might have prompted the bank to limit its latest round of easing. The only substantive stimulus measure announced, Credit Suisse analysts say, was a deposit rate cut to -0.3% from -0.2%. Many investors, encouraged by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last month about the bank being intent to raise inflation “as fast as possible,” had expected more, such as a deeper deposit rate cut. Their disappointment manifested itself in the sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar and a sell-off in short-duration peripheral bonds after the ECB’s Dec. 3 announcement.
But the economic data coming out of Europe in recent months doesn’t support calls for more stimulus. A range of indicators suggest that the continent’s economy is growing above-trend at a pace of 1.5 percent and Credit Suisse says that the prospect for growth in the region in 2016 is as good as it’s been in a decade. “There has been no downturn for the ECB to urgently offset,” Neville Hill, Head of European Economics at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent note.
What may have appeared urgent, at least in the eyes of ECB officials, was limiting the short-term weakness of the euro against the dollar, which — its recent slide notwithstanding — is poised to appreciate thanks to the much-anticipated interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Markets Committee announced its first rate hike in more than nine years — a quarter-point increase to a target range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent — at its Dec. 16 meeting. The ECB’s moves “may make lift-off for the Fed…a little easier,” Hill wrote.
What, if anything, would prompt the European Central Bank to step up quantitative easing again? The most likely cause would be low inflation. Headline inflation has teetered at zero this year while core inflation’s upward trend has stalled. The ECB expects inflation to average 1% next year, but a downward trend in core inflation or no rise in headline inflation could prompt the bank to act. The likelihood of either scenario is questionable, however: Credit Suisse suspects that core inflation’s movements are erratic — rather than being indicative of a steady downward trend — while stabilizing energy prices should help push headline inflation up.
There are three potential factors that could prompt more quantitative easing: a significant rise in the euro, a large drop in oil prices or a surprise drop in euro area growth. But without such shocks, the coming year will likely see no new easing by the ECB. In light of the current and anticipated monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, investors can also expect steeper yield curves in the euro area and a flatter one in the U.S.
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