Tim Parker 2012年11月6日
原油价格继续下跌。分析师和行业专家给出了自己的观点。然而历史告诉我们那些无人知晓的事情。每个人都在做出自己最好的猜测，但是只是理论而且很难证实。
在9月14日，原油价格以94.94美元的高点收盘，使市场分析人士认为能达到100美元。而美国政客担心上升的原油价格会阻碍经济增长。
在当天，路透社报道原油价格的上升是因为外汇市场活动和对美国第三季度财报的反应。
飓风桑迪
飓风桑迪在10月29日（周一）登陆。从周一登录之前到周原油价格下跌1%,桑迪也给其他大宗商品带来压力导致供应和配送中断。报道石油和天然气供应出现2小时中断，分析人士预计石油和天然气价格将大幅上升。
因为每天处理超过30万桶原油的两个东北部炼油厂的关闭，和其他炼油厂产量的减少，原油的供应量下降。然而需求比供应高。随着炼油厂的修理和需求回归正常，价格应该恢复稳定。
技术盘整
石油交易员由于世界银行的政策驱动油价上升。然而就像一些人预测的那样，兴奋期已经结束。当交易员意识到干预性政策其实实施很少，他们将重新考虑前景。根据 ITG投资研究所的理论，希望破灭时价格将会下跌。
然而那之后原油价格继续下降，截至到10月31日，下跌到86.23美元，比9月的最高点下降约13%。为什么原油价格能在这么短的时间内下跌如此剧烈？
9月17日，油价在一分钟内下跌超过3美元，一些人将这描述成闪电崩盘。
供应过剩
原油不仅仅是因为供应过剩，而且需求不足。全球经济都处在泥潭中。当经济下降，汽油、柴油和航空燃料的需求也随着下降。人们减少旅行，航船减少而且人们减少开车以省钱。
中东
中东局势紧张通常是原油市场波动的原因。去年夏天局势的紧张增加了对供应不足的担心，导致油价上升。当那些局势被证实不会恶化中东将继续保持平静，交易员可能进行对手中的大宗商品进行对冲。
总结
尽管原油价格上升和下降的理论很多。能源交易员知道大宗商品市场的波动是正常的。观看长期图表，我们就好发现原油价格在2008年上升到146美元，之后剧烈下跌。原油市场是全球市场，有时石油价格上升或下降的原因并不明显清晰。
Why The Price Of Crude Oil Is Dropping
By Tim Parker | November 06, 2012
Oil continues to fall. Analysts and industry experts have their opinions about why. History, however, tells us that sometimes nobody really knows. Everyone is making his or her best educated guess but, in the end, it is all theory and difficult to quantify.
On Sept. 14, crude oil closed at a high of $98.94, leading market analysts to believe that it was poised to reach the $100 mark. At the time, economists, as well as Washington politicians in the midst of an election year, worried that higher prices would put a damper on economic growth as prices at the pump would continue to rise.
On that day, Reuters reported that rising crude prices were the result of actions in the currency market as well as reaction to the federal government's announcement of QE3.
Since that time, however, oil has retreated. As of Oct. 31, it was down to $86.23, a nearly 13% decline since the September highs. Why has oil dropped so dramatically in such a short period?
Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy made landfall on Monday, Oct. 29. From the Friday before landfall to the Friday after, the spot price of oil dropped just over 1%. Sandy has only served to place additional pressure on the commodity causing supply and distribution disruptions. While reports of two-hour waits for gasoline amid short supply flood the media, some analysts expected a sharp rise in both oil and gas prices.
Because two refineries in the northeast, responsible for processing more than 300,000 barrels of oil per day, are shut down, and others are operating at reduced capacity, the supply of oil was decreased. Demand, however, was affected more than supply. As repair to the infrastructure takes place and consumption returns to normal, prices should stabilize.
Technical Correction
Oil traders, anticipating intervention by the world's banks to stimulate economic growth, drove the price of oil up. As some anticipated, however, the euphoria has to end sometime. When traders realize that intervention has done little so far, they rethink their outlook. ITG Investment Research theorizes that the stimulus hope bubble burst, sending prices plummeting.
On Sept. 17, oil dropped more than $3 in less than a minute, leading some to describe the fall as something similar to a flash crash. Experts disagree about the reason such an irregular drop took place but some blame algorithmic trading for the fall. Other theories include a fat-fingered trader and pending expiration of the October contract.
Too Much Supply
When it comes to oil, not only is there too much supply, there is not enough demand. World economies are struggling. When the economy slows down, so does the demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. People travel less, companies ship less and consumers curtail their driving habits to save money.
The Middle East
Tension in the Middle East often takes the blame for oil market volatility. Rising tensions in the late summer months created fears of supply shortages, causing prices to rise. As those tensions proved to be mostly unfounded and the Middle East remained relatively quiet, traders may have covered their commodity hedges.
The Bottom Line
Theories abound about why the oil market rises and falls. Energy traders know that commodities markets are volatile by nature. To look at a long-term chart of oil, investors find rises to $146 a barrel in 2008, which then fell sharply soon after. The oil market is a worldwide market and sometimes the cause of a rise or fall in price has no clear, discernible, single reason.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1112/why-the-price-of-crude-oil-is-dropping.aspx