在房价下跌的余波中，美国消费者做了一件他们近年来从没做过的事情：他们竟然减少了债务。2008年是债务最高峰，已经达到了11.5万亿美元，在此之后家庭债务（是房贷、房屋净值贷款、车贷、信用卡债务的总和）在2013年第二季度已削减至100亿美元，而减债到此为止。在过去的两年里，家庭债务又开始增加。但这是个好消息：债务增加有利于经济复苏。
车贷最早在2010年开始反弹，接下来信用卡在2011年开始反弹，最后是房贷，在2013年开始反弹。2015年年中，家庭债务已逼近105亿美元。这不是简单的债务增加问题，重点是谁的债务增加了。
为了回答这一问题，瑞士信贷的经济学家James Sweeney，Zoltan Pozsar 和 Xiao Cui 为美国借款人制作了一份表格。他们做的第一件事是把美国分成两部分。第一部分是受到金融危机影响最大的五个气泡区（加利福尼亚、内华达、亚利桑那、弗罗里达和乔治亚州），另一部分是其余45个州。接下来他们又将这两部分进一步分解为一级借款人（信用评分659以上）及次级借款人。专家只考虑那四分之一的“信用良好者”，即非气泡区的一级借款人。而其他的人都是 “信用不佳者”。
虽然全国范围内的债务皆有增加，但“信用良好者”的债务增加得更快，他们中新增的房贷、车贷以及信用卡债务比其他三组人群之和还要多。举例来讲，自2010年起，“信用良好者”的车贷增加了1500亿美元，而“信用不佳者”的车贷只增加了1250亿美元。信用卡债务增长分布得比较均匀，“信用良好者”增加了350亿美元，而“信用不佳者”增加了250亿美元。房贷则大不相同，自2013年起，80%的房贷都是“信用良好者”贡献的，总额约有2250亿美元，而“信用不佳者”只有250亿美元。
这种债务增长不均衡导致的结果是，非气泡区的一级借款人贡献了75.2%的家庭债务，而在2008年的债务高峰期只有68.4%。换句话说，大萧条之后的严苛信贷标准提高了未偿家庭贷款的质量。
在“信用不佳”的人群中，气泡区的一级借款人贡献了最多的车贷、房贷及信用卡债务。在次级借款人中，车贷和信用卡债务增速很快，房贷才刚刚起步，但这仅限于信用评分在620-660之间的高端次级借款人。
一级借款人的整体负债有所增加，而次级借款人则没有。那是因为他们正疲于应对止赎问题，他们可能正被银行起诉或是被收账公司追债。瑞士信贷的经济学家称，只有在次级借款人偿还完现有房贷之后，他们才有可能达到信用评分的最低借款标准。
这是借贷热情的前奏，也是高消费的前奏。这也说明了只要就业增加，收入增加，零售业保持正常，消费活动就会逐渐恢复至正常水平。专家称：“信贷的增加，尤其是低评分人群和曾经的房地产繁荣区的信贷的增加，是美国复苏的重要标志。” 在过去的两年里，美国的GDP波动频繁，第一季度经济明显减速，而随后又有大幅回升。但家庭债务和花销的增加却是美国经济增长的有力标志。
US Debt Is Rising Again—But That’s a Good Thing
By: Hal Levey
Published: September 2, 2015
In the aftermath of the housing collapse, U.S. consumers did something they hadn’t done in years: they drastically reduced their debt loads. After peaking in 2008 at just over $11.5 trillion, household debt (the sum of mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, and credit card debt) was whittled down to under $10 trillion by the second quarter of 2013. But that, apparently, is when the deleveraging stopped. Over the past two years, household debt has once again been on the rise. But here’s the good news: that uptick bodes well for the economy.
Auto loans rebounded first in 2010, followed by credit cards in 2011, and, finally, mortgages in 2013. As of mid-2015, total U.S. household debt sat just under $10.5 trillion. But the encouraging news isn’t simply that borrowing is up.—it’s more about who, exactly, is doing the borrowing.
To answer that question, Credit Suisse economists James Sweeney, Zoltan Pozsar, and Xiao Cui recently created a four-box matrix of U.S. borrowers. The first thing they did was split the country into two parts—on one side, the five bubble states that were hit hardest by the crisis (California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia), and on the other, the 45 that weren’t. Then they separated those groups into two parts again: prime borrowers (credit scores above 659) and subprime borrowers. The bank’s economists consider only one of the four resulting categories to be “good credits”—prime borrowers in non-bubble states. Everyone else, including prime borrowers in bubble states, is “challenged.”
While debt has been rising across the board, it’s been rising faster among good credits, who have taken on more new mortgage, car, and credit card debt than the other three groups combined. Car loans to good credits have increased by more than $150 billion since 2010, for example, compared to an increase of about $125 billion for challenged credits. Growth in credit card debt is more evenly distributed, with an increase of $35 billion to good credits and $25 billion to challenged ones. But the difference in mortgages, which account for 80 percent of total household debt, is stark–good credits have taken on approximately $225 billion in new mortgage debt since 2013, compared to less than approximately $25 billion for challenged ones.
As a result of that lopsided recovery, prime borrowers in non-bubble states now hold 75.2 percent of household debt, compared to 68.4 percent when borrowing peaked in the third quarter of 2008. In other words, tighter credit standards in the wake of the Great Recession have succeeded in improving the overall credit quality of outstanding household loans.
Within the challenged credit group, prime borrowers in bubble states are taking on more auto loans, credit card debt, and mortgages. Among subprime borrowers, auto loans and credit card debt are growing quickly, but mortgage activity is just starting to rise—and only among borrowers at the higher end of the subprime spectrum, with credit scores between 620 and 660.
While prime borrowers have increased their overall debt balances, subprime borrowers have not. That’s because many consumers are still dealing with foreclosures, whether they’re being sued by lenders or hounded by collection agencies. Credit Suisse’s economists say subprime debt balances will only rise after those homeowners finally settle their outstanding mortgage debts and loans become more accessible to borrowers with the lowest credit scores.
What this renewed enthusiasm for borrowing foretells, of course, is higher consumer spending. It’s just one more indication – along with faster job creation, higher labor income, and healthy retail sales – that consumer activity is finally returning to normal in the United States after an achingly slow recovery. “The return of credit growth, especially for those with low credit scores or in former housing boom areas, marks an important threshold (for) the U.S. recovery,” say the bank’s economists. U.S. GDP figures have been volatile over the past two years, with marked slowdowns in the first quarter followed by stronger growth later in the year. But the clearly positive trends in U.S. household borrowing and spending are reliable indicators that more growth lies ahead.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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