美国 GDP 下滑，但是经济增长将会加速

由于世界经济的进一步发展和因劳动力短缺和工资增长而更加富裕的消费者，美国明年经济增速可能达到2.75%。

正如普遍预计的那样，周五公布的第一季度实际GDP年化季率从0.2%初值下修至-0.7% ，与公众通过近期发布的数据预测到的结果一样糟糕。

“西海岸港口罢工不利于出口”

事实上，官方的公布数据稍好于公众预期的1%萎缩。甚至美联储主席耶伦在近期的讲话中就提到第一季度GDP存在从增长修正到亏损的可能性。

除了一些小的、弥补性的小幅修正，真正的大修正是高于预期的进口增长以及库存累积比最初公布的减少。GDP的“P”，生产，并不是直接衡量的。相反，是政府计算销售以及加上库存的改变计算得出。库存大于销售意味着产量大于销量。相反地，零售店里那些没有在美国境内生产的外国商品需要从GDP中扣除。

修订并没有改变之前报告的大致轮廓。如果有的话，我们对当前修订之后的报告更加满意，因为我们鄙视库存对GDP的巨大贡献，库存只意味着生产过剩。在销售疲软的环境中，这可能表明接下来几个季度生产的减少，进而打压未来的GDP。所以，库存推动的GDP增长往往是得不偿失，因为它需要牺牲未来几个季度GDP。一年当中，库存对GDP的贡献变化量小，几乎接近于零。

同样，某一季度中进口的巨大变化在一年中也会自我修正，比如，当前季度进口增加，则下一季度的进口将会减少。然而，在经济复苏过程中，进口会呈上升趋势并且会危害全年的GDP计算。这一点和全年库存微小的调整与无趋势性不同。

主要的外卖商品季度性是不变的。消费者仍然是拉动经济增长的主要动力，随着经济结构类别中油井数量的降低，净出口的增加是一个巨大的诽谤。别的领域没有产生很大的变化。有点奇怪的是，政府支出持续下降。

虽然消费者一直是最大的贡献者，但是第一季度和第二季度的增速相差一多半。虽然我承认经济衰退的原因是多方面的，但不可否认的是，天气对消费者的消费能力有巨大影响。在那些易受天气影响的领域，比如饭店、旅馆、服装和汽车行业，都遭受到了较大打击。

不过，医疗保健、食品等领域也不是十分火爆。然而，四月份较好的气候促进了汽车、餐馆等行业的发展，这也预示着在六月份这些行业将会有可观的销售业绩。

能源相关产品的增量缓慢、出口减少，以及由于美元强势导致的经济低迷，世界经济增长缓慢、缺乏对相关商品的购买需求。西海岸港口的罢工一定程度上也影响了出口，但是对进口的影响最大。三月份，那些徘徊在太平洋的进口商船不约而同地将它们的货物卸载下来，人为地提高进口价格。尽管那些进口货物在港口具体的清空时间不确定，但是这些进口在不久的将来会对GDP产生巨大影响。

我们坚信全年的GDP增长率将会在2%~2.5%之间。这意味着接下来三个季度的增长率都会维持在3%左右增长率。随着世界经济的增长以及由于劳动力短缺带来的工资水平的提高，明年的增长率会小幅增加至2.25%-2.75%。劳动力数量的减少将会抑制许多消费类别，但是将会小幅提振房地产市场。

US GDP Falls, But Economy Growth Will Pick Up
With a stronger world economy and a more well-off consumer due to labour scarcity and wage gains, US economic growth next year could accelerate to 2.75%
As widely expected, the first-quarter GDP growth rate was reduced from a measly 0.2% to an outright decline of 0.7% on Friday. As bad as the revision seemed, it was widely anticipated and could be easily predicted by looking at recently released data revisions.
“The West Coast port strike didn't help exports”
In fact, the official decline was modestly better than the consensus forecast of a 1% contraction. Even Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen alluded to the fact in recent speeches that a first-quarter GDP revision to a loss from a gain was a possibility.
Besides the usual small and offsetting revisions, the really large revisions were relatively equally divided between a higher-than-expected estimated surge in imports and a reduction in the inventory build-up that was smaller than originally reported.
The "P" in GDP, production, is not measured directly. Instead, the government counts sales and adds the changes in inventories. More inventory than sales means that production was higher than sales. Conversely, foreign goods that were not produced in the United States end up in retail stores; therefore, they have to be subtracted from GDP.
The revisions were not really a game-changer with the broad contours of the report little changed from the previous one. If anything, we were more pleased with the report versus the previous ones because we despise seeing a huge contribution from inventories, which means production may have been excessive relative to sales levels.
In a weak sales environment, it likely means a reduction in production in subsequent quarters, depressing future GDP reports. So GDP gains from inventories are often a pyrrhic victory, boosting short-term GDP at the expense of future quarters. Over the course of a full year, not just one quarter, the inventory contribution changes little and is relatively close to zero.
Likewise, huge import changes in one quarter tend to be self-correcting over the course of a full year, with a big quarter often followed by small ones. However, in a recovery, imports will trend upward and will hurt the full-year GDP calculation, unlike full-year inventory adjustments, which tend to be relatively small and trendless.
The key takeaways for the quarter are unchanged. Consumers continued to be the key driver of the economy, net exports were a huge detractor as was a rapidly declining oil sector, fewer oil wells show up in the business structures category. Most other categories didn't change enough to make a big difference. Somewhat surprisingly, government spending continued to decline.

Although consumers remained the biggest contributor, that growth rate was more than cut in half between the first and second quarter. Weather weighed on聽consumers' ability to spend, though I confess that the slowdown was rather broad-based. In the weather-affected category, restaurants, hotels, clothing, and autos were some of the harder-hit sectors.
Still, health-care, groceries, and the other categories weren't so hot, either. Nevertheless, better weather is already helping some categories autos and restaurants in April, and should bode well for a better consumption number in the June quarter.
Exports were influenced by lower growth in energy-related products as well as a general malaise due to a strong dollar, weak world growth, and lack of interest in anything broadly related to the production of commodities. The West Coast port strike certainly didn't help exports, but the bigger impact was on imports. Imports that had been cruising the Pacific Ocean emptied their cargo bays en masse in March, artificially inflating imports. Although the exact timing of when those imports completely clear the harbours is unknown, surely imports will take at least a one-month dive in the near future. That import dip will turn into a huge benefit for the GDP calculation at some point.
We are holding firm for a 2%-2.5% growth rate for the full year. That implies that growth over the next three quarters will average around 3%. With a stronger world economy and a more well-off consumer due to labour scarcity and wage gains, growth next year could accelerate modestly to 2.25%-2.75%. Demographics will keep a lid on many spending categories but may help the housing market slightly.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/138346/us-gdp-falls-but-economy-growth-will-pick-up.aspx