美元和欧元一起形成了世界上交易最多的货币对并且可能很快变成一个最具风险的货币对。美联储和欧元区央行都在展开重大的政治活动：美国的利率上调和欧元区的量化宽松。在本文中我们将检查货币数据和探索即将到来的变化以评估欧元/美元现在的风险。

什么是货币对？

在一个货币对中，交易员用另一种货币购买一种货币。在欧元/美元货币对中，欧元是分子因此被称为基础货币。美元是分母，因此叫报价货币。每一个货币对都有基础货币和报价货币。通过观察货币对我们可以知道哪种货币相对另一种货币价值更高。例如，,如果欧元/美元汇率是1.1187,这意味着价格买入1欧元(基础货币)是1.1187美元(报价货币)。在这种情况下,欧元比美元价值更高。

各自货币的价值是由通货膨胀,贷款利率,就业数据、工业生产、零售销售和其他数据等因素决定。其中一些因素也和其他因素正相关或者负相关。因此，任何对欧元/美元货币对的交易，就必须了解两国的经济数据,能够跟踪和理解这些数据的变化将如何影响价格。欧元/美元货币对的大新闻是美国联邦储备银行(美联储)提高利率和欧洲央行(ECB)的量化宽松政策。

过去表现

在2014年5月到2015年4月的过去一年中，欧元/美元从1.3869（1欧元兑1.3869美元）的最高点跌落到1.11449(1欧元兑1.1144美元）的底点。2014年10月,美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)结束其定量宽松计划。2015年1月,欧洲央行(ecb)超过了所有人的预期，宣布自己的大规模定量宽松计划。在2015年3月开始，至少到2016年9月结束，欧洲央行(ecb)将每月购买价值600亿欧元的债券。这导致欧元/美元对越来越弱，欧元/美元从2015年1月宣布时1.1652跌到2015年4月的1.1144。然而，如果政治和经济预测不按预期进行时，有些因素交易员在将要面对风险的时候需要找出来。

美联储将会在何时提高利率？

第一个主要风险美国贷款利率的不确定性。美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)在其2014年12月结束的季度回顾说,他们将对提高利率有耐心。然而,在3月份的最新政策评估中，他们不再使用耐心这个词，似乎即将宣布加息。然而，低于预期的经济增长指标低于目标的通货膨胀导致美联储即将加息。预测者认为美联储将在2015年6月和9月之间宣布加息。这很有可能因为投资者涌向美国债券市场并加强美元使欧元/美元汇率下降。

另一个风险是美国经济依赖国内消费，占整体经济的70%。消费直接和就业和工资相关。所以就有就业报告发布后欧元/美元上下浮动的风险。（阅读更多请看：（欧元/美元在糟糕的就业数据报告后的反弹）

通胀也是一个货币对交易风险的考虑因素。由于大宗商品价格的不断下跌美国和欧洲都不能保持一个稳定的通胀率，尽管美国比欧洲好些。但是随着石油和大宗商品价格的下跌，需要一段时间才能达到目标水平。然而，美国可能回避欧洲更早面临通货膨胀。这使得欧元/美元货币对有汇率上升的风险。

如果欧元下跌怎么办？

还有一个由希腊危机和希腊偿不能还欧元区债务和退出欧元区的可能的不确定性带来的风险。然而，希腊的GDP只占欧元区总GDP的百分之二，希腊违约或者退出欧元区不大可能对欧元带来任何威胁。然而，希腊退出欧元区可能导致一个多米诺骨牌效应，导致意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙随之退出欧元区。这样的事件将会影响欧元的存在。然而，如果欧元能挺过这样一个事件，欧元区将会变成一个整体更强的经济体且欧元将会对美元升值。

总结

利率、通货膨胀、经济增长、生产、和就业在决定一个国家的货币的价值中都扮演一个角色。外汇交易员应该遵循经济日历并追踪该数据的定期发布和管理风险。面对对于即将到来的美国美联储息升和目前正在进行由欧洲央行(ecb)雄心勃勃的债券购买计划，交易员可以安全地在未来4 - 6个月欧元/美元看跌押注。

What Makes the EUR/USD A Risky Trade Now?

By Kushal Agarwal | May 22, 2015    

Together, the U.S. dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR) form the most traded currency pair in the world and they may soon become one of the riskiest as well. Both the central bank of the United States and the eurozone (the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, respectively) are on the cusp of significant policy actions: an interest rate hike in the United States and the beginning of a massive quantitative easing program in the eurozone. In this article, we will examine currency data and explore upcoming policy changes to assess how risky the EUR/USD trading pair is now.

What is a Currency Pair?

In a currency pair, traders buy quantities of one currency using another currency. In the EUR/USD currency pair, the euro is the numerator and is thus called the base currency. The U.S. dollar is the denominator and called the quote currency. Every pair has base currency and a quote currency. By looking at the pair we can tell which currency is valued more relative to the other. For example, if the EUR/USD currency pair is 1.1187, that means that the price to buy 1 euro (base currency) is 1.1187 U.S. dollar (quote currency). In this case, the U.S. dollar is worth less than the euro.

The value of the respective currencies is determined by factors such as inflation, lending rates, employment data, industrial production, retail sales, and other data. Some of these factors are also tied to each other in either a positive or negative correlation. Thus, for anyone trading in the EUR/USD currency pair, it is absolutely necessary to be aware of the economic data of the two countries and to be able to track and understand how changes in these data will affect the price of the pair. The big news in the EUR/USD currency pair is the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) raising interest rates and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Past Performance

During the last year—from May 2014 to April 2015—the EUR/USD pair has fallen from a high of 1.3869 (1 euro buys 1.3869 US dollars) to a low of 1.1144 (1 euro buys 1.1144 US dollars). In October 2014, the U.S. Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing program. In January 2015, the European Central Bank surpassed all expectations when it announced its own massive quantitative easing program. Beginning in March 2015 until at least September 2016, the European Central bank will buy 60 billion euro worth of bonds per month. This has led to the EUR/USD pair getting weaker from a high of EUR/USD of 1.1652 before January 2015 announcement to 1.1144 as of April 2015. However, there are factors that a trader should look out for as they may pose a risk if the policies or economic forecast do not go as planned.

When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates?

The first major risk is the uncertainty over U.S. lending rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve said in its December 2014 ending quarterly review that they will be patient with the decision on increasing interest rates. However, in the latest policy review in March, they no longer used the word patient and appeared to be on track to announce an interest rate hike. However, lower-than-expected economic growth indicators and inflation below targets led the Fed to push the interest rate hike back. Forecasters think the Fed will announce the hike between June and September of 2015. This will likely push the EUR/USD even lower as investors will flock to U.S. bond market and strengthen the dollar.

Another risk is the U.S. economy’s reliance on domestic consumption, which makes up 70 percent of the economy. Consumption is directly related to employment and payroll. So there is both a downward or upward risk depending on how the employment data, which is notoriously fickle, plays out. (Read more EUR/USD Rallies After Bad Jobs Report)

Inflation is also a consideration for risk in the currency pair trading. Both the United States and Europe are unable to effect a steady inflation due to falling commodity prices, though the United States is doing better than Europe. But with falling oil and commodity prices, inflation will take time to reach target levels. However, the United States will probably face inflation sooner than Europe. This presents a upside risk to the EUR/USD currency pair.

What if the Euro Falls?

There is also a risk posed by the Greek crisis and the uncertainty over a possible Greek exit and default from the eurozone. However, as Greece's gross domestic product (GDP) is just 2 percent of the total eurozone GDP, it is unlikely that its exit or a default on its debt will pose any danger for the euro. However, there is a chance that a Greek exit from the euro could creates a domino effect and pave the way for Italy, Spain, and Portugal to follow in exiting the euro. Such an event would threaten the very existence of the euro; however, if the euro survives such a walkout, it will be comprised of an overall stronger economic group and the euro will likely gain value against the U.S. dollar.

The Bottom Line

Interest rates, inflation, economic growth, production, and employment all play a role in determining the value of a country’s currency. Currency traders should follow an economic calendar to track the periodic releases of this data and manage risks. Given the looming interest rate hike by the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank’s ambitious bond purchase program currently underway, traders can safely make a bearish bet on EUR/USD for the next 4-6 months.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/052215/what-makes-eurusd-risky-trade-now.asp