波动性低可能会很危险

BobLang

作为市场参与者，我们常常试图找出市场种种表现的背后成因。其中一些能用理性来解释，另一些则不能，所以被称为“市场之谜”。坦白来讲，其实这一点都不神秘，仅仅是资金的流入和流出。但是我们的脑袋总是想要一个复杂的理由来解释市场的变化，就像我们解决一个极难的谜题一样。市场走势忽上忽下便是困扰市场玩家的难题之一。

有一句老话是这样说的：“VIX高扬快买入，VIX低迷赶紧跑。”在市场的恐惧不断增长然后达到顶峰时，就闭上眼睛直接买入了。在过去的几年中，我们见识过VIX上涨会带来极其丰富的交易机会。

与之相反，VIX低迷意味着自我满足且缺乏恐惧，这时候的交易者自信心爆棚且无所畏惧，相信股票会永远上涨。但这是一步坏棋，因为一旦买入停止，你就无能为力，只好卖出，随后就会出现修正。谁能预测每件事情会在何时发生呢？答案很简单，没有人。

因此，如果VIX收盘时下跌了10%，只能说明这个指标比较低，不是卖出的信号，而是大量买入的标志。如果VIX上涨了30%，甚至突破了13，说明股票市场有可能会下跌，涨幅2%的话也有可能。它可能发生在任何时间。如果VIX过低，说明选择的成本很低。因此，为了更好地保护你的投资组合，应该考虑加入一些指数。我常用的指数有SPY，QQQ，IWM和DIA。提高防御性的最佳买入时间是在你需要它之前，而不是灾难发生之时。

Low Volatility Can Be Dangerous

As market participants we often look for reasons of market behavior.  Some are rational and explainable but others are not.  Call it the 'mystery of markets'.  Frankly, it really is no mystery at all, it is simply about money flows in and out.  Yet, our minds look for the most complex reasons for moves, as if we are trying to solve a difficult puzzle.  The rise and fall in volatility is one of those conditions that continues to confuse market players.

There is an old saying, 'When the VIX is high, it's time to buy - when the VIX is low it's time to go'.  Simply put when fear is rising and peaking it is time to close your eyes and just buy.  We have seen spikes in VIX become tremendous buying chances over the last several years. 

Conversely, a low VIX implies complacency and lack of fear - a bold ego that says I have nothing to worry about, stocks are going up always.  Often a bad move, because once the buying stops there is nothing left but sellers - then corrections ensue.  Who can predict the timing of these events everytime?  Answer is simple - nobody.

So today we have a VIX that closed around 10.4% on Jan 27.  That is low, but just because it is low is not a sell signal.  It is certainly indicative of 'buyer fever', and even if the VIX climbs 30% up to a level of 13 the stock market is likely to decline, perhaps around 2%.  It could happen anytime.  With a low VIX it means options are cheap - so protect your portfolio buy adding some at the money puts on the indices.  I use SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA - some of the most liquid names.  The time to buy protection is before you need it, not after a disaster strikes.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/170571-low-volatility-can-be-dangerous/