美联储在4月会加息吗?

2016-03-30 14:48:08

Dan Moskowitz 2016年3月28日

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美联储通常都是被动反应多余提前准备。以前基于经济数据,而现在是根据股票和债券市场的反应。在股票市场中,美联储在标准普尔500上涨时强硬而在下跌时温和并不是巧合。你可以大致预测下一个声明,这将对市场将如何反应提供有价值的信息。这也是引起市场诸多波动的原因。

那么在4月下旬的联邦公开市场委员会会议中会发生什么呢?在回答这个问题之前,我们来关注下下面信息。

强硬势头

在公开市场委员会中总有反对声音,但是强硬派的反对将建立势头。美联储副主席Stanley Fischer和克利夫兰联邦储备银行主席Loretta Mester是强硬派,现在这一阵容正在迅速扩大。包括:

Patrick Harker,旧金山联储主席;

John Williams,堪萨斯城联储主席;

Dennis Lockhart,亚特兰大联储主席。

George在上次会议上想加息25个基点而其他人想让美联储考虑在4月加息。美联储主席Janet Yellen已经表示虽然国内劳动力市场强劲,外来风险是不能加息过快的原因之一。这本身就很有趣,因为它表明美联储正在远离其充分就业和2%通胀目标的使命。

反对者们反对温和立场是因为他们更关注经济的长期健康而不是近期资产的表现。如果美联储决定对实体经济有效,那么他们也没有必要在超过6年多的时间保持温和。这是一个超长期的宽松货币政策,引起许多企业和消费者高负债的情况。这些企业中的大多数缺乏营业收入。

许多投资者在过去6年中做的非常好。这是超长期低利率的积极影响。但是在此期间受困的人明显多余受益的人,其中工人因为公司看不到需求和分配更多资金派息被解雇。

总结

美联储确实在12月加息而没有选择3月。目前,有明确的强硬势头正在构建中,这将增加美联储在4月加息的几率。然而,如果股票和债券市场在现在和那时表现不好,加息很可能不会出现。与其观察整体就业和通胀,不如直接观察市场的表现。如果市场表现良好,4月出现加息就不需要震惊。事实上,可能会出现这样的情况。如果市场表现不好,美联储将不会采取行动并用乐观的态度安抚担忧。很难预测的是在现在和4月会议之间是否会出现横向市场。对于这一点,大家只能猜测。

 

Will the Federal Reserve Hike Rates in April?

By Dan Moskowitz | Updated March 28, 2016

The Federal Reserve has typically been more reactive than proactive. Historically this has related to economic readings whereas now it relates to how stock and bond markets are behaving. In regards to the stock market, it’s no coincidence that the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish when the S&P 500moves higher and more dovish when it moves lower. You can essentially predict the next announcement with almost pinpoint accuracy, which could provide valuable information as to how the market will behave in reaction to that announcement. This, by the way, is what’s causing so much volatility in the market.

So what happens in late April the next time Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets? Before answering that question, we need to look at all the details.

Hawkish Momentum

There were always dissenters within the FOMC, but the hawkish rebellion is building momentum. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are hawkish and that list is quickly growing. It now includes the following: 

Patrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed

John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed

Esther George, President of the Kansas City Fed

Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed

George wanted a 25 basis point hike at the last meeting and all the others want the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike in April. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has cited risks from abroad as one reason not to move too fast, despite a strong domestic labor market. This is interesting in itself because it indicates that the Fed is moving away from its dual mandate of full employment and 2% inflation. 

As far as the dissenters are concerned, they are opposed to the dovish stance and are likely more concerned with the long-term health of the economy than how assets perform in the near term. If the Fed’s actions were effective for the actual economy, then it wouldn’t have remained dovish for more than six years. This has been a prolonged period of highly accommodative monetary policy. It has created overleveraged situations for many corporations and consumers. The majority of those corporations lack top-line growth.

Millions of investors have done well over the past six years. This is the positive end impact of prolonged record-low interest rates. But have more people been harmed than helped, including workers who have been laid off because corporations don’t see demand and are allocating more capital to dividends and buybacks as opposed to growth? 

The Bottom Line

The Fed Reserve did hike rates in December but opted not to in March. Currently, there is definitely hawkish momentum building within the FOMC which increases the odds of a rate hike in April. However, there will likely be no rate hike in April if the stock and bond markets perform poorly between now and then. Instead of looking at full employment and inflation, just watch how the markets perform. If they perform well, don’t be shocked if there is a rate hike in April. Actually, it would be likely. If the markets perform poorly, the Federal Reserve will stand still and deliver optimistic language to soothe concerns. The one situation that’s difficult to predict is if there’s a sideways market between now and the April meeting. In this instance, it’s anyone’s guess. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/032516/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-april.asp

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