道琼斯指数下行可能性有多大？

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, LCG

道琼斯指数在2月28日突破历史最高点21,170后下跌了3%，受到特朗普通胀的影响，道琼斯指数在短短四个月内上涨了20%。

道琼斯指数以有史以来最快的速度，从20,000点攀升到21,000点。技术指标显示，这段期间内有大量的超买情况发生。

投资者们大力支持特朗普总统的昂贵财政计划，其中包括税务改革和基础设施费用。在2016年11月至2017年2月间，道琼斯指数不断刷新纪录，直到二月底，股票投资者才逐渐冷静。

各种经济、政治因素导致道琼斯指数在三月初出现停滞。首先，美联储在三月宣布进行温和的加息，重新调整了市场对特朗普财政支出的预期。其次，特朗普的竞选承诺难以顺利推行。削减税费和支出的计划没有公布更多的细节，引起了多方质疑，一些美股的长期股票投资者都保持观望态度。

而道琼斯指数在上一周出现了大量卖空，这是11月9日以来的最大跌幅。事实上，在美联储加息会议结束后的五天中，道琼斯指数有四天是在下跌。

美股的下行修正会进一步加强。近来的回跌引发了很多质疑：特朗普通胀是否已经结束，美股是否会进一步下跌？

自特朗普上台后，道琼斯指数首次跌至50日移动平均线 (20,490) 以下。

从技术观点来开，市场存在进一步下行修正的可能性。

11月9日以来，14日RSI（强弱指数）首次跌至50以下，但市场距离超卖的情况还有很远，至少要RSI跌至30以下才会发生。

常见的动量指标MACD（平滑异同移动平均线）已经跌至特朗普上台以来的最低水平。道琼斯指数已准备好特朗普上台以来的首个熊市，这意味着卖空的动量会继续增加。

下一个重要的技术水平是20,293点，23.6%的回撤幅度。如果跌破该点，可能会直冲20,000点。

从单纯的技术水平来讲，即使跌至20,000点也不足以改变道琼斯指数的中期趋势。

特朗普牛市的主要支撑位是19,754.2点，回撤幅度为38.2%。只有跌破该点，道琼斯指数才算正式进入熊市。

What is the downside potential for the Dow Jones?
 
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, LCG

The Dow Jones dropped more than 3% percent after hitting the historical high level of 21,170 on February 28th as a result of an unprecedented ‘reflation’ rally, that reflated the Dow Jones by more than 20% in four months only.
The Dow recorded the fastest 1,000 point rally in its history from 20,000 to 21,000. Technical indicators pointed at an overbought market during the major part of the rally period.

Investors have massively bought into the new US President Donald Trump’s expansive fiscal plans, including tax reforms and infrastructure spending. As the Dow Jones frequently renewed record from November 2016 to February 29017, traders often wondered whether the market has gone ahead of itself. Nevertheless, the momentum was very strong to let the stock buyers down until the end of February.

A combination of different economic and political factors caused price stagnation in the Down Jones since the beginning of March. First, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced what is called a ‘dovish’ rate hike at the March meeting, which basically readjusted the market expectations about Trump’s fiscal spending. Second, Donald Trump appeared to have hard time pushing through his campaign promises. The lack of details regarding the tax cuts and the spending program raised several questions and has apparently discouraged some investors from building further long positions in the US stock markets before more details would come in.

As such, the sell-off in the Dow Jones accelerated over the past week, when the index recorded its biggest fall since November 9th. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial index lost over four out of the five past trading sessions during the week following the Fed meeting.

The downside correction in the US stocks could intensify. The recent pullback raised several questions on whether the Trump-reflation rally is over and what is the potential of a further drop.

The Dow Jones retreated below the 50-day moving average (20,490) for the first time since Donald Trump’s election on November 9th.

From a technical point of view, there is potential for a deeper downside correction.

The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) stepped below the 50 level for the first time since November 9th, yet the market is still comfortably far from the ‘oversold’ conditions, which would imply the RSI slipping below the 30 level.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which is a popular indicator of momentum, has deteriorated to the lowest levels since the Trump rally started on November 9th. The Dow Jones is preparing to step into the bearish territory for the first time since November, which suggests that the sell-off could pick-up further momentum.

The next important technical level is eyed at 20,293, the minor 23.6% retracement on November 9th to February 28th rally. Breaking this level would pave the way for the critical psychological level of 20,000.

From a purely technical perspective, even a pullback to 20,000 is not sufficient to tell that the Dow Jones has reversed the mid-term trend.

The major support to the post-Trump bullish trend stands at 19,754.2, the major 38.2% retracement. Only breaking this level, the Dow Jones would step in the bearish consolidation zone.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.leaprate.com/experts/ipek-ozkardeskaya/what-is-the-downside-potential-for-the-dow-jones/