不利市场中的常识策略

2016-02-29 17:46:19

 Alan Farley  2016年2月26日

金融市场不断在提供轻易获利阶段和对投资和交易账户产生不可预测损失的不利时间循环。市场参与者需要在不利时间等待良性条件到来的同时使用有技巧的判断管理市场、保护原始资本和产生目标利润。
 
波动轨迹不利时标准普尔波动性指数每周和每天的价格波动增加,流动性减少并且股票、货币、债券和大宗商品之间的相关性增加。不同市场之间的校准使市场参与者很容易混淆,因为它的影响比容易观察的支撑和阻力水平和止损要大得多。
 
不利市场的应对
不利环境可以发生在上升或者下跌市场中,但是在下跌市场的破坏更大,因为大多数投资策略都有乐观偏好。做空交易和对冲将会取得积极效果,但是随着时间的推移往往会失败,因为市场下跌比上涨快的多。
 
最有效的策略依赖于严格自律,降低交易的规模和频率、保持资金水平直到有利的市场条件回归。这说起来比做起来容易的多,因为在顺利展开之前很难意识到,正如我们在2009年看到在三月低谷之后分析家预测会出现新低。
 
自律也需要控制做出不明智交易决定的情绪。市场随着贪婪和恐惧的数量高低运动。恐惧情绪在不利市场大量增加,测试着在现实生活中很少检测的个人素质。恐惧在这时可能是非常致命的,导致出现改变人生的选择,可以消灭家庭财富。
 
保留资金
市场智慧告诉我们保留资金也是一种投资。不利的市场在机会出现并回到100%本金之后需要一个短期零交易方法处理风险。这符合流行的获利趋势跟随策略。
 
交易者在保留资金时应该减少50%到70%的交易频率,直到大规模的市场转机出现。他们还需要处理漩涡中出现的风险,决定投资风险是否值得依赖度过艰难时期。这可能是个数百万美元的决定,有些不利市场可能持续数周数月或者甚至数年。
 
这在不利环境影响市场的一个部分时尤为真实,例如大宗商品。许多投资者在2010到2014年间持有大量股票,之后发生了最恶劣的下跌中的集体卖空。更糟糕的是,许多人在集体下跌时买入更多的股票以求抄底。
 
这可能是改变生活的决定,没有简单的答案。许多时候,最好的行动就是接受失败和损失,花钱买教训。这有一个额外的心理收益,使投资者与让他们高压力夜不能寐的仓位告别。同时也解放了资金等待新的机会。
 
后退一大步
把你的注意力从日图转移到更长的时间框架上。不要听取金融频道的建议并放弃那些图表,查看周和月表现。熊市、修正和其他不利阶段时间往往能通过VIX和其他波动指数分析。这些在后退一大步和观察大背景时更容易发现。
 
成为一个大猎物猎人。几年来你一直想持有的股票通常在不利市场中可以在极低的价格购买,只要你有耐心并以缓慢的速度建立仓位。这些传奇的交易并不多见,但是一旦出现将会能拯救你的生活,补充你耗尽的资金并重新建立投资信心。
 
掌握新策略
每个市场环境都能创造机会,不利市场出现时也没什么不同。它可以是一个学习做空、使用触底反弹进入市场、期望以更低价格买入获利的完美时机。市场转换也能为资金退出热门仓位并分配资金到那些在此期间跑赢大盘的有利可图的市场集团指明道路。
 
观察防御类股票确定他们是否和大盘价格走势相反。具体的说,公用事业、食品、烟草是否因为其避险作用吸引了大量资金?除了更少的周期性商业模式,这些股票在更小的平均范围提供更高的股息,降低在波动时间止损立场的风险。
 
总结
不利市场需要有技巧的判断减少风险并发现新的获利机会。如果可能的话以建立100%的资金水平开始,然后小心的将资金分配到防御股仓位。
 
Common Sense Strategies For Adverse Markets 
By Alan Farley | February 26, 2016 
 
Financial markets cycle continuously between benevolent periods that offer easy profits and tough times that trigger unexpected damage to investment and trading accounts. Market players need to make skillful adjustments in adverse periods to manage risk, protect seed capital and generate targeted profits while waiting for the return of benign conditions. 
 
Volatility tracks adversity, with the rising S&P Volatility Index (VIX) reflecting broader daily and weekly price swings, diminished liquidity and the tighter correlation between equities, currencies, bonds, and commodities. The alignment between dissimilar markets confuses participants because it exerts a greater influence than easily observed support and resistance levels, easily triggering well-placed stop losses.
 
Dealing With Adverse Markets
Adverse conditions can occur in rising or falling markets, but falling markets do greater damage due to the bullish bias of most investment strategies. Short sale and hedging practices allow a proactive response but tend to fail over time because markets fall more quickly than they rise, with sideways chop targeting long and short positions for weeks or months at a time.
 
The most effective strategies rely on strict self-discipline that lowers the size and frequency of trade execution, keeping cash levels high until the return of favorable conditions. This is easier said than done because it’s hard to recognize the improvement until it’s well underway, as we saw in 2009 when analysts predicted new lows for nearly a year after the March bottom.
 
Discipline also needs to manage emotions that translate into unwise decision-making. Markets move higher and lower through the qualities of greed and fear. Fear rises significantly in adverse markets, testing personal qualities that rarely come into play in day to day living. The fear factor can be devastating at these times, contributing to life-changing choices that can wipe out family wealth.
 
Raise Cash
Market wisdom tells us that cash is a position too. Adverse markets demand a short-term zero-out trading approach that takes targeted exposure when opportunities show up and then returns to 100% cash as soon as a conservative profit target is reached. This contrasts with the popular trend following strategy of letting your profits run.
 
Traders should cut execution frequency by 50% to 75% while investors sit on their hands, waiting for large scale cyclical turns. These folks also have to manage exposure carried into the maelstrom, deciding if the risk is worth holding through tough times. This can be a million dollar decision, with some periods of adversity easing after a few weeks or months while others last for years.
 
This is especially true when adversity strikes a market segment, such as the commodity complex, while sparing the broad averages. Many investors built large exposure to energy stocks between 2010 and 2014, just before the group sold off in the worst downtrend in generations. Even worse, many took an additional risk while the group spiraled lower, trying to pick bottoms.
 
These can be life-changing decisions, with no easy answers. Many times, the best course of action just capitulates and takes the loss, going back into cash poorer but wiser. This has an added psychological benefit, allowing the humbled investor to say goodbye to positions that caused high-stress levels and sleepless nights. It also frees up capital for new opportunities.
 
Take A Giant Step Back
Shift the focus away from the daily grind focus your attention on longer time frames. Turn off the financial television and pull out spreadsheets and charts, examining weekly and monthly performance. Bear markets, corrections and other periods of adversity tend to follow similar paths that can be analyzed using VIX and other volatility indicators. These are more easily seen when taking a giant step back and looking at the big picture.
 
Become a big game hunter. Securities that you’ve wanted to own for years can often be bought at bargain basement prices in adverse markets, as long as you’re patient and willing to build positions at a very slow pace. These legendary trades come infrequently but can be life savers when they show up, filling depleted coffers while restoring confidence in investment decisions.
 
Master New Strategies
Each market environment creates its own set of opportunities, and it’s no different when adversity hits the ticker tape. It may be a perfect time to learn the art of short selling, using relief rallies to enter positions, in hopes of profiting from lower prices. Rotation also lights the way as funds exit hot plays and allocate capital to niche market groups that can outperform during these periods. 
 
Look at defensive sectors to see if they’re countering broad market price action. Specifically, are utilities, food, and tobacco attracting buying interest due to their reputations as safe havens? In addition to less cyclical business models, these securities pay high dividends while grinding through smaller average ranges, lowering the risk of getting stopped out during volatile periods. 
 
The Bottom Line
Adverse markets require skillful adjustments to reduce risk and find new profit opportunities. Start by building cash levels to 100%, if possible, and then carefully reallocating capital into defensive positions.
 
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022616/common-sense-strategies-adverse-markets.asp
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