形成市场趋势的4个因素

2016-03-02 17:17:05

Cory Mitchell 

 

趋势使交易员和投资者获利。无论时间框架长短,在一个整体的趋势市场或者区间环境中的价格运动都能产生获利或者亏损。下面有四个引起长短期波动的主要因素。这些因素是政府、国际交易、投机和预期和供求关系。

 
主要市场力量
了解这些因素如何在长期中形成趋势将使你能预见趋势如何发展,一个趋势为什么产生和未来趋势将如何产生。下面是四个主要因素:
 
1.政府
政府在自由市场中占有举足轻重的地位。财政和金融政策对金融市场有巨大的影响。通过增加和降低利率政府可以有效的减慢或者加速国家经济的增长速度。这被称为货币政策。
 
如果政府支出增加或者缩减,这被称为财政政策,可以被用来缓解失业或者稳定物价。通过改变利率和公开市场上的资金数量,政府可以改变进出国家投资资金的数量。
 
2.国际交易
国家之间的资金流动影响一个国家经济和货币的强弱。流出一个国家的资金越多,该国的经济和货币越弱。出口占主导地位的国家,无论出口的是商品还是服务都会使资金持续流入该国。这些资金可以被重新投资并刺激国内金融市场发展。
 
3.投机和期望
投机和期望是金融系统不可或缺的部分。消费者、投资者和政客对未来经济的预期将会影响我们当前的表现。对未来价格表现的预期依靠当前表现以及当前和未来趋势的形态。这些指标的分析家以及其他基本面和技术分析人员可以创造一个未来价格和趋势方向的预期。
 
4.供求关系
产品、货币和其他的投资的供求关系创造一个推动式价格运动。价格和利率随着供求关系变化。如果某些商品的需求不变而供应减少,那么价格就会上升。如果供应超过当前需求,价格就会下降。如果供应相对稳定,价格就会随着需求的变化而波动。
 
对长短期趋势的影响
这些因素都会引起市场中的长期和短期波动,了解这些因素如何共同创造趋势非常重要。虽然这些主要因素有明确差异,但是他们互相之间紧密相关。政府指令影响国际交易,国家交易在投机中占重要地位,供求关系对这些因素都会产生影响。
 
政府新闻发布,例如计划修改支出和税务政策的新闻,以及央行修改或者维持利率的决定都会对长期趋势产生巨大影响。低利率和税率鼓励消费和经济增长。这将使市场价格增高,但是市场不总是产生这样的回应,因为其他因素也在产生影响。例如,如果利率和税率上升,但是控制支出将会导致市场价格的长期下降。
 
国际影响
国际交易,国家间收支差额和经济强度很难以每天为基础判断,但是他们在许多市场的长期趋势中起重要作用。货币市场根据一个国家的货币和经济相对其他国家的表现。对一种货币的高需求意味着该货币将相对其他货币升值。
 
在短期内,这些新闻引起交易者和投资者买卖将会引起大规模的价格波动。这些新闻引起的行为将会创造短期趋势,而长期趋势随着投资者全面把握这些信息对市场影响展开。
 
一种货币的价值也将对这个国家的其他市场产生影响。如果一个国家的货币疲软,将会阻碍资金流向该国,因为潜在利润将可能被疲软货币削减。
 
参与者的影响
交易者和投资者根据收到的政府政策和国家交易对价格影响的信息进行的分析和买卖。如果有足够多的人认同这一方向,市场将进入趋势并维持很多年。
 
趋势也被那些分析错误的市场参与者接受,使他们被迫退出当前亏损交易并进一步推动当前趋势方向。随着更多投资者跟随趋势获利,市场将进入饱和并进行趋势逆转。
 
供求关系影响
这时供求关系将会进入视野。供求关系对个人、企业和金融市场都会产生影响。在一些市场,例如大宗商品市场,供应由实物产品的产量决定。石油的供应和需求持续变化,调整市场参与者愿意在现在和未来购买石油的价格。随着供应减少或者需求增加,石油价格的长期上涨可能会发生,因为市场参与者出价一个高过一个以获取看似有限的产品供应。供应商想要他们的产品获取更高的价格,更大的需求使买家愿意支付更高的价格购买商品。
 
所有市场都有一个类似的动态结构。股票在短期和长期范围波动产生趋势。供应枯竭的威胁提高当前价格使买家以越来越高的价格购买,引起价格大幅度上涨。如果一大群卖家想进入市场,这将增加股票的供应并很可能引起价格降低。这在任何时间框架中都会发生。
 
总结
趋势通常由政府、国际交易、投机和期望以及供求关系等四个主要因素引起。这些都与预期未来环境的决定和形成当前趋势的当前决定相关。政府主要通过货币和财政政策影响趋势。这些政策影响国际交易进而影响经济强度。投机和预期根据未来价格的可能驱动价格。最后供求关系的变化随着市场参与者争取最好的价格创造趋势。
 
4 Factors That Shape Market Trends 
By Cory Mitchell 
Trends are what allow traders and investors to capture profits. Whether on a short- or long-term time frame, in an overall trending market or a ranging environment, the flow from one price to another is what creates profits and losses. There are four major factors that cause both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. These factors are governments, international transactions, speculation and expectation, and supply and demand. 
 
Major Market Forces
Learning how these major factors shape trends over the long term can provide insight into why certain trends are developing, why a trend is in place and how future trends may occur. Here are the four major factors:
 
1.Governments
Governments hold much sway over the free markets. Fiscal and monetary policy have a profound effect on the financial marketplace. By increasing and decreasing interest rates the government and Federal Reserve can effectively slow or attempt to speed up growth within the country. This is called monetary policy. 
 
If government spending increases or contracts, this is known as fiscal policy, and can be used to help ease unemployment and/or stabilize prices. By altering interest rates and the amount of dollars available on the open market, governments can change how much investment flows into and out of the country. 
 
2.International Transactions
The flow of funds between countries impacts the strength of a country's economy and its currency. The more money that is leaving a country, the weaker the country's economy and currency. Countries that predominantly export, whether physical goods or services, are continually bringing money into their countries. This money can then be reinvested and can stimulate the financial markets within those countries.
 
3.Speculation and Expectation
Speculation and expectation are integral parts of the financial system. Where consumers, investors and politicians believe the economy will go in the future impacts how we act today. Expectation of future action is dependent on current acts and shapes both current and future trends. Sentiment indicators are commonly used to gauge how certain groups are feeling about the current economy. Analysis of these indicators as well as other forms of fundamental and technical analysis can create a bias or expectation of future price rates and trend direction. 
 
4. Supply and Demand
Supply and demand for products, currencies and other investments creates a push-pull dynamic in prices. Prices and rates change as supply or demand changes. If something is in demand and supply begins to shrink, prices will rise. If supply increases beyond current demand, prices will fall. If supply is relatively stable, prices can fluctuate higher and lower as demand increases or decreases.  
 
Effect on Short- and Long-Term Trends
With these factors causing both short- and long-term fluctuations in the market, it is important to understand how all these elements come together to create trends. While these major factors are categorically different, they are closely linked to one another. Government mandates impact international transactions, which play a role in speculation, and supply and demand plays a role in each of these other factors.
 
Government news releases, such as proposed changes in spending or tax policy, as well as Federal Reserve decisions to change or maintain interest rates can have a dramatic effect on long term trends. Lower interest rates and taxes encourage spending and economic growth. This has a tendency to push market prices higher, but the market does not always respond in this way because other factors are also at play. Higher interest rates and taxes, for example, deter spending and result in contraction or a long-term fall in market prices. 
 
In the short term, these news releases can cause large price swings as traders and investors buy and sell in response to the information. Increased action around these announcements can create short-term trends, while longer term trends develop as investors fully grasp and absorb what the impact of the information means for the markets.
 
The International Effect
International transactions, balance of payments between countries and economic strength are harder to gauge on a daily basis, but they play a major role in longer-term trends in many markets. The currency markets are a gauge of how well one country's currency and economy is doing relative to others. A high demand for a currency means that currency will rise relative to other currencies. 
 
The value of a country's currency also plays a role in how other markets will do within that country. If a country's currency is weak, this will deter investment into that country, as potential profits will be eroded by the weak currency. 
 
The Participant Effect
The analysis and resultant positions taken by traders and investors based on the information they receive about government policy and international transactions create speculation as to where prices will move. When enough people agree on direction, the market enters into a trend that could sustain itself for many years. 
 
Trends are also perpetuated by market participants who were wrong in their analysis; being forced to exit their losing trades pushes prices further in the current direction. As more investors climb aboard to profit from a trend, the market becomes saturated and the trend reverses, at least temporarily. 
 
The S & D Effect
This is where supply and demand enters the picture. Supply and demand affects individuals, companies and the financial markets as a whole. In some markets, such as the commodity markets, supply is determined by a physical product. Supply and demand for oil is constantly changing, adjusting the price a market participant is willing to pay for oil today and in the future. 
As supply dwindles or demand increases, a long-term rise in oil prices can occur as market participants outbid one another to attain a seemingly finite supply of the commodity. Suppliers want a higher price for what they have, and a higher demand pushes the price that buyers are willing to pay higher.
 
All markets have a similar dynamic. Stocks fluctuate on a short and long-term scale, creating trends. The threat of supply drying up at current prices forces buyers to buy at higher and higher prices, creating large price increases. If a large group of sellers were to enter the market, this would increase the supply of stock available and would likely push prices lower. This occurs on all time frames. 
 
The Bottom Line
Trends are generally created by four major factors: governments, international transactions, speculation/expectation, and supply and demand. These areas are all linked as expected future conditions shape current decisions and those current decisions shape current trends. Government affects trends mainly through monetary and fiscal policy. These policies affect international transactions which in turn affect economic strength. Speculation and expectation drive prices based on what future prices might be. Finally, changes in supply and demand create trends as market participants fight for the best price.
 
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trend.asp
 
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