沃伦.巴菲特:他是怎么做的?

2015-04-27 18:22:17

众所周知,巴菲特的投资策略达到了一个神奇的程度。一个在1990年1月的8175美元的投资在2013年的9月末价值已经超过了165000美元,在同样的时间内,8175美元在标普500上的投资只能达到42000美元。但是巴菲特是怎么做到的呢?下面是巴菲特投资理念的重要原理。
 
巴菲特理念
 
巴菲特遵从本杰明.格雷厄姆的价值投资观点。价值投资人寻找价格低于其内在价值的股票。没有一个特定的方法来衡量一个公司的内在价值,但是一般都是通过分析公司的基本面来做估计。像那些买便宜货的人一样,价值投资者寻找那些他认为在市场中被低估的股票,还有那些没有被其他投资者意识到的优质股。
 
沃伦.巴菲特将这种价值投资带到了另一个高度。许多投资者不支持有效市场假说,但是他们相信市场最终会青睐那些曾经或者正在被低估的优质股。然而,巴菲特却不关心股票市场复杂的供求关系。事实上,他一点也不关心股票市场的活动。从他著名的句子“在短期内,市场是一个人气竞争,在长期中,它是一杆秤”中我们能的到提示。
 
他选择股票时把每一个当成一个整体,仅仅基于他们作为一个公司的整体潜力。当持有一只股票进行长期投资的时候,巴菲特追求的不是资本得利而是那些有能力得利公司的持有权。当巴菲特投资一家公司的时候,他不关心市场最终是否能发现其价值,他关心那家公司作为一个业务赚钱的能力怎样。
 
巴菲特方法
 
这里我们看一下巴菲特在评估股票优秀程度和其价格的关系时如和通过问自己问题来找到优质股的。请记住,这不是巴菲特分析的全部,而是关于他怎样寻找的小小的总结:
 
1.公司一贯表现良好吗?
 有时“股本回报率”(ROE)也被称为“股东投资回报”。它揭示股东在持有股票中获得收益的比率。巴菲特总是通过查看股本回报率来进行一家公司和同行业的另一家公司的对比,确认其表现是否一直良好。股本回报率计算方式如下:
净收入/股东权益
 
仅观察上一年的股本回报率是不够的,投资者应当观察5-10年的历史股本回报率。
 
2.公司有避免过多负债吗?
 债务股本比是巴菲特仔细考虑的另一个因素。巴菲特更愿意看到少量的债务,这样收益的增长就是由股东的投资产生的,而不是借来的钱。债务股本比的计算方式如下:
负债总额/股东权益
 
这个比率显示公司正在运营其资产的权益和债务比例。这个比率越高,运行公司的债务就越多。和股权相比,高债务水平可能引起收益不稳定和大量利息支出。在一个更严格的测试中,投资者只使用长期债务,而不是总债务进行上面的计算。
 
3.利润率高吗?他们在增长吗?
 一个公司的盈利能力不仅仅取决于它的盈利高低,而且也取决于能持续增长与否。利润率是净利润除以总销售得到的。要得到一个好的历史利润率指标,投资者至少要查看过去五年的利润率。高利润率表明公司运转良好,但不断增长的利润则意味着管理极其有效并能成功控制费用。
 
4.公司上市了多久?
 巴菲特通常只考虑那些已经上市了最少10年的公司。因此,那些在10内进行首次公开募股的科技公司将不会进入他的考虑范围(更不用说巴菲特只在他完全理解的业务上投资,而他承认,他不知道现在的大多数科技公司是干什么的)。所以巴菲特的选择标准之一是运行时间的长短:他寻找那些经历了时间考验但是目前仍被低估的公司的股票。
 
永远不要低估历史表现的价值,它能表明该公司能(或不能)增加股东的资产。但是请记住,一只股票的过去表现不能决定它的未来表现,价值投资人的作用是确定它能否像过去一样表现好。这个判断是非常棘手的,但是很明显巴菲特做的非常好。
 
5.公司的产品依赖一个初级商品吗?
 起初你可能把这个问题当作一个激进的缩小公司的方法。但是,巴菲特却把它看的十分重要。他倾向于(但不总是)回避那些和竞争对手产品没有明显区别的公司,和那些依赖例如石油和天然气等初级产品的公司。如果一个公司的产品和同行业的竞争产品没有任何区别,巴菲特把其区分出来并很少关注。任何难以复制的特征都是巴菲特所说的“经济护城河”或者“竞争优势”。经济护城河越宽,它能在市场竞争中获得的份额就越大。
 
6.股票出售是其真实价格的25%折扣吗?
 判断一个公司符合其他五个标准是一件事,但是判断它是否被低估价值是价值投资中最困难的一件事,这也是巴菲特最重要的技巧。要检查这一点,一个投资者必须通过例如收入、资产、收益等的大量的基础分析来确定公司的内在价值。公司的内在价值通常高于(也更复杂)其清算价值-----即公司今天破产并被出售的价值。清算价值不包括没有出现在财务报表上的无形资产,例如商品品牌。
 
一旦巴菲特确定了一个公司的整体内在价值,他就将其与当前市值------当前总价格做比较。如果公司的内在价值高于其市值至少25%,巴菲特认为这个公司有投资价值。听起来很简单,不是吗?然而巴菲特的成功取决于他对公司内在价值无与伦比的判断能力上。虽然我们能概括他的一些标准,但是我们却不能知道他是怎么得到对计算价值如此精确的掌握。
 
总结
正像你可能已经注意到的,巴菲特的投资风格就像到处寻找便宜货购买的人一样,反映了一个实际的、脚踏实地的态度。巴菲特把这一态度也维持在他生活的其他方面,他不居住在豪宅里,他不收集轿车,也不乘坐豪华汽车去上班。这种投资风格并不是没有受到诟病,但是你是否支持巴菲特,就像那句话说的,实践出真知。他是世界上最有钱的人之一,拥有净资产超过530亿美元(福布斯2013)。请注意,对包括巴菲特在内的价值投资者来说,最困难的是确定一个公司的内在价值。
 
 
 
Warren Buffett: How He Does It 
It's not surprising that Warren Buffett's investment strategy has reached mythical proportions. A $8,175 investment in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) in January 1990 was worth more than $165,000 by September 2013, while $8,175 in the S&P 500 would have grown to $42,000 within the aforementioned timeframe. But how did Buffett do it? Below are the most important tenets of Buffett's investment philosophy.
 
Buffett's Philosophy
Warren Buffett follows the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. There isn't a universally accepted way to determine intrinsic wroth, but it's most often estimated by analyzing a company's fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market, stocks that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers. 
 
Warren Buffett takes this value investing approach to another level. Many value investors do not support the efficient market hypothesis, but they do trust that the market will eventually start to favor those quality stocks that were, for a time, undervalued. Buffett, however, isn't concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. In fact, he's not really concerned with the activities of the stock market at all. This is the implication in this paraphrase of his famous quote: "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."
 
He chooses stocks solely based on their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.
 
Buffett's Methodology 
Here we look at how Buffett finds low-priced value by asking himself some questions when he evaluates the relationship between a stock's level of excellence and its price. Keep in mind that these are not the only things he analyzes but rather a brief summary of what Buffett looks for:
 
1. Has the company consistently performed well?
Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment." It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether a company has consistently performed well compared to other companies in the same industry. ROE is calculated as follows: 
 
= Net Income / Shareholder's Equity 
 
Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to gauge historical performance.
 
2. Has the company avoided excess debt? 
The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money. The debt/equity ratio is calculated as follows: 
 
= Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity 
 
This ratio shows the proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets; and the higher the ratio, the more debt - rather than equity - is financing the company. A high debt level compared to equity can result in volatile earnings and large interest expenses. For a more stringent test, investors sometimes use only long-term debt instead of total liabilities in the calculation above.
 
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing? 
A company's profitability depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing it. This margin is calculated by dividing net income by net sales. For a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.
 
4. How long has the company been public? 
Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. As a result, most of the technology companies that have had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past decade wouldn't get on Buffett's radar (not to mention the fact that Buffett will invest only in a business that he fully understands, and he admittedly does not understand what a lot of today's technology companies actually do). It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.
 
Never underestimate the value of historical performance, which demonstrates the company's ability (or inability) to increase shareholder value. Do keep in mind, however, that a stock's past performance does not guarantee future performance - the value investor's job is to determine how well the company can perform as it did in the past. Determining this is inherently tricky, but evidently Buffett is very good at it.
 
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity? 
Initially you might think of this question as a radical approach to narrowing down a company. Buffett, however, sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company's economic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.
 
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value? 
This is the kicker. Finding companies that meet the other five criteria is one thing, but determining whether they are undervalued is the most difficult part of value investing, and it's Buffett's most important skill. To check this, an investor must determine a company's intrinsic value by analyzing a number of business fundamentals including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements.
 
Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his intrinsic value measurement is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Well, Buffett's success, however, depends on his unmatched skill in accurately determining this intrinsic value. While we can outline some of his criteria, we have no way of knowing exactly how he gained such precise mastery of calculating value.
 
Conclusion
As you have probably noticed, Buffett's investing style, like the shopping style of a bargain hunter, reflects a practical, down-to-earth attitude. Buffett maintains this attitude in other areas of his life: He doesn't live in a huge house, he doesn't collect cars and he doesn't take a limousine to work. The value-investing style is not without its critics, but whether you support Buffett or not, the proof is in the pudding. He is one of the richest people in the world, with a net worth of more than $53 billion (Forbes 2013). Do note that the most difficult thing for any value investor, including Buffett, is in accurately determining a company's intrinsic value.
 
本文由兄弟财经翻译
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/071801.asp
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