一代传奇-----威廉江恩

2015-04-17 17:24:08

威廉.德尔波特.江恩.1878年6月出生于德克萨斯的拉夫金,他的父母是从英属爱尔兰移民到美国的。拉夫金位于休斯敦和德克萨肯纳中间。那里是德克萨斯的棉花之乡,江恩的父母靠内奇思河下游的一个棉花农场为生。他在以棉花为主导地位的安洁莉娜郡的棉花仓库中间长大。江恩在一个严格的卫理教徒家庭长大。他的妈妈是一个非常虔诚的人,在他很小的时候就让他去阅读《圣经》,并且希望他能成为一个牧师。江恩不确定他是否想成为一名牧师,但是的确如他父亲希望的那样,他学习圣经比他在棉花地里工作要早。他每个周日和父母教堂,在听牧师布道的时候他发现他对圣经的理解和牧师不同。在圣经中他发现时间周期,重要数字的重复和那些智者追逐星辰的介绍。同时,由于这些都用非常含蓄的语言描述,所以想要了解真正的含义非常困难。鉴于其强大的记忆力,江恩到21岁时几乎能背诵整部圣经。

上学期间,江恩非常精通数学并被称为有天赋的数学家。他对知识强烈的渴望和开放式的态度让他进行了多领域的学习,这些最终引导他发现了以前一直被忽视的市场。当大多数孩子还只能在三四年级时他就完成了高中学业。少年时代的江恩,喜欢被称为W.D,这个缩写一直被他用到生命最后。W.D在其父母宽容的为了他能获得工作而在未成年工作许可表格签字之前都是代表他父母的。他的第一份工作是在德克萨肯纳和德克萨斯的泰勒之间一趟火车上当卖报员。这份工作需要他机智灵敏,有进取心并且能和各种各样的人打交道。在其青年时期,他在拉夫金和德克萨肯纳的棉花仓库工作。在棉花仓库工作期间,他接触到了棉花交易。

1902年,24岁的江恩在他最熟悉的棉花市场进行了第一笔交易。这笔交易微小的利润标志着投资市场一个传奇生涯的开始。在接下来的53年中,江恩在市场中赚取了五千万美元。据一个在江恩最后九年为其工作的人透露,这些钱中大约有三分之一是他自己的,另外的三分之二是由他监管的客户账户的。人们相信从第一单开始,江恩就开始用他一生交易生涯一直使用的法则和技术。他早期的一些图表证实了这以观点。随着时间的推移,他的方法被不断完善。

1906年江恩去了俄克拉玛市。他在一家经济商公司做一名经纪人,为客户处理大额账户,同时也自己交易。他从其他交易员成功和失败经验中学习。他发现90%的没有经过学习的交易员会以亏损收场。江恩也损失了一大笔资金并承认他那时的交易是基于希望、贪婪和恐惧。在后来他的书和授课中,他提醒所有的交易员警惕这些情绪。在早起,江恩就开始注意股票和期货交易的周期性长跌。这让他总结出自然法则是市场运动的基础。之后他投入十年时间研究自然法则在投机市场的运用。在此期间,他去英国,埃及和印度去学习古老的数学和星相学知识。在大英博物馆,他对市场周期进行了广泛的研究。据说是在埃及的神庙他发现了后来著名的9的方图的基础结构。在对已知科学的广泛研究和调查之后,他发现了波动法则,这使他能准确的确定给定时间内交易股票或商品的确切价格,每只股票和商品都有其自己的波动率。

在27岁的时候,江恩在美国西南部地区已经非常出名了。他对棉花价格分析观点被人们非常看重,德克萨肯纳的一家报纸《德克萨肯纳人日报》刊登了江恩对棉花价格的预测。1908年,30岁的江恩搬到纽约并在百老汇18好开了自己的经纪商公司。并开始在市场中检验他的理论和技巧。1908年8月,他做出了对股票和期货的最伟大的一个数学发现。那就是主宰时间因子。在一年内,人们了解到他的成功不仅仅是因为运气。没有人和江恩一样的广泛研究时间周期。他的图表显示他用来工作的时间周期,在那时还没有任何研究员有类似的研究。

1909年十月,《股票和投资摘要》的编辑和拥有人理查德D.威克夫对江恩进行了了解其交易能力的一个月的采访。在采访中,记录了10月的25个交易日中作为交易员的江恩的交易。在那时,市场在周六也进行交易。江恩一共进行不同股票的286单交易,包括多头和空头。其中264单交易获利22单交易亏损,获利率为92.3%。在25个交易日中他把资金重复运用了10次并得到了1000%的收益。能获得这么惊人的收益是因为江恩每隔20分钟的在两个交易之间取一个平均数。在一天中江恩对一支股票进行了16次交易,其中8次交易在波动的顶端或者底部。这在华尔街的历史上是绝无仅有的。正如那个时代著名的投机者詹姆斯.R.基恩说的“在十次投资中正确六次的人创造财富”。这似乎就是对江恩高准确性选择底部和顶部投资的总结。1909年在他所运用的方法被发现的时候,江恩年仅31岁。传记作者认为在其惊人的表现后江恩后悔了接受采访,在出版的文章中江恩陈述到他不知道采访发布后的后果是那么惊人。当文章在《股票和投资摘要》发布之后,江恩被询问怎样如他之前做到那样选择底部和顶点的人包围了。他唯一的答案就是他运用“震动法则”取得的那些成就。在这个紧要关头他只有两个选择:1、冒着摧毁市场的风险批漏他的发现;2、写关于机械交易系统、几何角度的使用,使用的时间和价格图表书和课程降低他选取底部和顶部的方法的影响,例如八角图(9方图)、12图的掌握(144方图)、六角图(立方体)、90方图、52方图、360度圆图、和许多交易技巧。

毫无疑问,如果江恩用他选取底部和顶部的方法继续交易,他将成为世界上最富有的人,但是那样做将会引来太多关注。他将会被不可计数的交易员咨询不可计数的问题,而且他将被迫去回答。然而,在有些时候,他可能会用到他的方法的优势。江恩对自然法则有一个很深的理解,所以为了避免形成一个尴尬的局面,江恩选择他发明的机械系统和其他技术去交易。
获得更多的金钱而拥有更好的生活对他来说不是很重要,他更对古老文明和科学知识感兴趣。江恩知道自然法则怎么控制人类,因此他了解市场,因为市场仅仅是一个人类活动的反映。

上两段是我个人观点,你有权赞同或者反对的权利,但是在你下结论之前,请仔细研究江恩 1909年的交易案例。他在25个交易日中进行了286单交易,也就是每天11单。而这样的交易,你必须在很短的一个交易日内选择底部和定点。

如果我的观点是事实,那么很可悲的是像江恩这样一个天才不得不许多交易方法和技巧掩盖了一辈子。在1918年他在纽约的公司的地址是新街81,在20世纪20年代初是百老汇49号。多年中,江恩在纽约的华尔街保留着几家办公室,这些地址的门牌号分别为78、80、82、88、91、和99.

在江恩事业巅峰的时候,他雇佣了35个人绘制各种图表,在他的方向进行分析研究,执行了包括各种出版物发行和项目的职责。他公司的名字叫做“江恩科学服务公司”,在1919年成立了”江恩研究公司”。公司提供以下供求信:每日股票信,三周股票信,每周股票信,日常商品的信,三周期货信,每周期货信。提供的电讯服务如下:每日股票价格电讯服务、每日棉花价格电讯服务、粮食价格每日电讯服务、股票和期货交易市场重要变化电讯服务。
发表的年度预测有:年度股票预测、年度棉花预测,每年粮食预测,每年橡胶预测,每年咖啡、糖和可可预测。所有预测的补充都在月初邮寄。根据要求提供股票和其他期货的预测。同样是按照,每日、每周、每月、每个季度和提供股票和其它商品的摆动图。江恩教受那些想要自己的使用,不会发布,出售,或教别人掌握的人预测方法的高级课程教,收费2500美元,新机械方法和趋势指标,收费为5000美元。这些课程和经济指导的费用在当今经济下可能达到两万五千到五万美元,或者更多。

早在1923年,江恩提供了一个名为“忙人服务”的服务。这是一项为那些要江恩指导账户何时买进和卖出的专业人士和商人设立的。几年之后他这个服务的名字改为“个人服务”。
这些服务的收费以一个月、三个月、半年或者一年的时间段为基础,或者依据一个收费小于净利润的5%的“部分收益计划”为基础。在“部分收益计划”中要求至少交易100股。客户通过电报或者信件接受收交易建议。

1923年3月5日、星期一纽约的晚间电讯把江恩描述成“先知”和’数学预言家”。这其中表示江恩的追随者披露他的预测85%是正确的。他结合周期使用幸运数字和字母成功预测了威尔士和哈丁的选举。他提前六个月预测了德国皇帝的退位和战争的结束。他的预测基于数学。他表示如果有数据他能基于周期理论准确判断事情再次发生的时间。他进一步表示,在本质上是没有幸运的,因为最高秩序的数学原理是一切的基础。文章表明江恩每天收到著名的人要求其公开其星相学的要求。据说他还告诉政治家是否能当选并帮助牧师、银行家和政治家解决问题。

在1922年11月17日,星期日的早间电讯的另一篇文章中,金融编辑亚瑟安吉说“W.D.江恩在1921年11月对1922年1发布的股票的预测又取得了惊人的突破,我担保一份1921年的预测复印件能证明这一观点。现在,在1922年即将结束之际,公正的说多令我更惊叹的是江恩先生的基于纯科学和数学计算显著预测。

江恩和他的妻子莎蒂.H.江恩在他们的婚姻中生了一个儿子和三个女儿。他的儿子约翰H.江恩在20世纪30年代晚期和40年代早起和他父亲是合伙人关系,他们的合作在40年代中期结束。本文作家了解到他们主要的分歧在星相学,约翰不相信星相学对股票市场或者人类行为有影响。这可能使江恩非常气恼,因为他非常了解行星运动对市场和个人行为的影响。在和父亲合作之后,约翰在一家名为Sulzbacher, Granger & Co的经济人公司作为经纪人任职多年。据说约翰在1984年去世。

江恩一直居住在纽约的斯卡斯代尔,在那时,那里是纽约的公共社区。在1933年5月26日的出现在“纽约当日投资资讯”的一篇文章中,报道了江恩在1933年乘坐第一架瑞联特飞机离开了纽约,驾驶员是一名名叫Flinor Smith的女飞行员,进行一个大范围的乡村飞行以研究棉花、小麦、烟草作物和其他期货的生长情况。飞机配备了导航仪器、无线电接收设备和超大油箱,飞了750英里。飞机由莱康明引擎提供动力,以每小时135英里的速度飞行。江恩是第一个乘坐飞机研究市场情况的华尔街顾问,所以他能更及时的通知客户市场情况的变动。在飞行过程中,他是美国各大商会的讲解员。

1935年,江恩坐飞机去南美研究作物生长情况,收集秘鲁、智利、阿根廷和巴西棉花增产的信息。他坐飞机记录了一万八千英里,坐汽车记录了一千英里。

1936年江恩购买了一个全金属制作扽飞机,名字叫“银河之星”,并把它运用到了作物调查中。1939年7月他因相同原因购买了一架全新的仙童飞机。

江恩是纽约期货交易所交易所、新奥尔良棉花交易所、纽约橡胶交易所、伦敦皇家经济协会、美国经济学会、共济会、芝加哥交易所的成员,并且是一位虔诚的卫理教堂的信徒。

江恩在19世纪40年代在佛罗里达的迈阿密家里呆了一个冬天,是由于工作原因搬到那里去的。他在迈阿密的办公室在26号路上的820 S. W,.在弗罗里达期间,他以面对面或者信件的方式继续他的咨询服务和讲授他的期货和股票课程。在19世纪40年代后期,他有一个推荐列表的书,包括数字命理学的科目,星相学,科学,和杂项。他参与房地产控股,喜欢大的汽车,特别是林肯,每年都买新的。1954年,几次成功的咖啡和大豆交易后,江恩购买快速巡航船,命名为“咖啡豆”。据报道,江恩终其一生穿着相同类型的西装,,家里装满了他的世界旅行时收集的物品。他经常去南美,但在同行的眼中,他没有挥霍金钱。

江恩撰写了许多非常好的关于股票和期货市场的书籍。下面列出了他写的书籍和出版年代:
《江恩股市定律》
《空中隧道》
《江恩选股方略》
《股票趋势探测器科学股票预测》
《如何在看跌和看涨期权交易中获利》
《美国,面对现实——展望1950年》
《如何从商品期货交易中获利》
《神奇的字句》
《华尔街45年》

江恩是一位高产的作家。他的写作方式独特。他的读者因为他对英语的有限运用把他当作一位不称职的作家。实际上并非如此。基于对他作品有条理的研究,读者可以发现江恩教授的方法。他会激发读者从数字的起源和音节的震动研究所有事物。

据我估计,江恩是个天才,他的高智商和双重性格使他即固执又和蔼。他是一个天才的数学家、图表解读者且对数字有一个超强的记忆能力。忽略他的科学,他能靠单独阅读图表在市场中获胜。江恩最重要的工具之一是他的图表且没有人能运用到他的高度。江恩的图表包含了55年区间,从1900年到1955年。在此期间成千上万的每日,每周,每月,每季度,每年,和其他各种图表,都被小心翼翼被制成,每一件艺术品。他相信图表是一种艺术,如果你明白了一切的图表显示,它将帮助预测第二天,下周,或下个月的价格变动。江恩是个工作狂,有时每天工作17个小时,每周6天,他对和他一起工作的人非常高,希望他们能和自己一样努力。他只会发出一次指令,不觉得应该有必要重复它们。

江恩对那时股票和期货价格波动有非常深入的了解。他花了9个月在大英博物馆夜以继日地研究从1820年开始的股票期货和小麦的价格。他还花费了大量时间在纽约的阿斯特图书馆研究股票和期货市场。他是一个观察数字、数论、进展、数字进展的研究人员。他的交易系统是基于自然法则和数学。因为地球在其轴上按自己规则自转引起的时间变动是由数字和数字的进展衡量的,价格的向上或向下运动也是由数字衡量的,这可以理解为什么江恩对数字有如此浓厚的兴趣。对自然法则和它们对人类的影响敏锐的理解对市场有直接影响。市场只是人类活动的一个扩展或者反映。

在江恩所处的时代没有计算器。他运用计算尺和他发明的各种图表进行计算,例如9方图。他对任何交易保持开放头脑以达到最佳效果。当他预测的时候,他运用许多方法以得到一个趋势转换的时间,这些方法都被证明是正确的。在他早期的交易中他赚取了数千美元。但是,由于轻信其他人的误导,他也损失了数千美元。在1913年和1919年,他所在的经纪人公司的破产使他损失了一小部分财产。其中的一家是默里·米切尔公司。在那时客户资金不像现在一样有外汇管理条例保护。

在那段时间他还卷入了两起银行倒闭。除了这些损失和不幸,他总是能依靠数学科学来实现资金回流。这也是为什么江恩表示市场知识比资金更重要。

现在,人们认为时代不同了,但是江恩在股票和期货市场遇到了牛市、恐慌、战争、通货膨涨、经济萧条和银行倒闭。在1921年,通货膨胀率达到了100%。罢工猖獗、不能找到工作和生产力水平非常低下。1929到1932年的经济大萧条和公民黄金直接没收兑换纸钞,给国家和人民留下了深深的伤痕。江恩反对罗斯福的新政和社会主义。因此,从别人的经验中学习,现在人们应该理解江恩著名的句子:“未来不过是对过去的重复,或者用圣经的话说,已经发生的事,就是应该发生的;已经做了的事,就是应该做的,太阳底下没有新鲜事物”。江恩说,一般人的记忆太差,只能记住他想记住或者符合他希望或者恐惧的事情。他们太依赖他人且不会自己思考。因此,应该依靠过去市场运动的记录、图表或者图片记录过去发生的和预测将来可能发生的情况。只要世界存在,恐慌就会发生,但是牛市也会随之到来,这就像潮汐的涨落一样确定的事,因为物极必反是人类的本质。当有希望或者乐观时人们会很极端。当被恐惧占据,人们走向另一个极端的方向。

以下摘自华尔街45年的历史中,都是真实并且对当今世界有用的建议。“每个人在生活中的收获完全取决于他的付出,我们播种什么就收获什么。一个花费时间金钱并不断学习的人绝不会自认为自己知道该知道的所有知识,而是意识到自己仍然可以学习,这样的人才是能在投机或者投资中取得成功的人。我想告诉你事实,传授我在过去45年中股票和期货交易中好的经验并向你指出那些弱点使你远离那些灾难。投机可以是个获利的行业。如果你遵守规则并意识到那些意外情况可能发生并早做准备,你就有可能击败华尔街并在股票和期货市场中获利。”

在关于如何在期货获利方面,江恩对知识有以下评论,他认为知识就是力量。所有看到这篇文章的人都应重视并记住他的建议。“在期货交易中成功和失败的交易的区别在于一个了解并遵循固定规律的人和一个靠猜测的人的区别。那个猜测的人通常都是失败的一方。因此,如果你想取得成功并且获利,你的目标必须是了解更多知识、用一切时间去学习、绝不能以为自己了解了一切。我已经研究股票超过40年,但也不能完全了解它。我希望只要我活着每一年都能学习一些新的东西。对过去市场活动的观察和敏锐比较将会揭示市场未来的走势,因为未来也仅仅是对过去的重复。用时间获取知识就是在银行存钱。如果你没有知识管理它们,你可能损失所有你积累或者继承的的资金。但是在你花一小部分钱学习了知识之后你就能赚取更多的钱。对期货的学习将会带来丰厚的回报。

在1947年,江恩把江恩研究公司卖给了一个名叫C. C. Loosli旧金山律师。那名律师对经营失去了兴趣之后在1948年1月14日把江恩研究公司卖给了密苏里州圣路易的Joseph L. Lederer。1952年以前江恩研究公司的办公地点一直是华尔街82号。之后搬到了纽约的斯卡斯代尔,又在1956年搬到了密苏里州圣路易,在那里它的业务只是投资顾问。

1950年,江恩和合伙人艾德兰伯特在佛罗里达迈阿密建立的兰伯特江恩出版有限公司。艾
德兰伯特是一个建筑师,在大迈阿密地区设计了州际高速公路系统。兰伯特江恩出版有限公司出版了江恩所有的书籍和课程。

江恩1955年6月14日在纽约布鲁克林的卫理教医院去世,享年77岁。去世时他的妻子,三个女儿和儿子陪在身边。那一天这个世界失去了一位真正的市场传奇。

在江恩在1955年去世之后,艾德兰伯特继续经营包括一家由江恩式图表升级的图表服务公司在内的业务。他不像江恩活着那样积极推行江恩的书籍,因此在接下来的20年江恩的业绩不那么被人推崇。1976年,华盛顿波默罗伊的比尔琼斯和尼基琼斯买下了兰伯特江恩出版有限公司和江恩的版权。这次收购针对他所有的个人研究,包括他在50年交易和研究过程中收集的数以千计的图表、报纸、书籍和著作。当然也包括江恩曾经用过的办公设备。最大型的五月花搬运车将这次收购的所有东西搬运到华盛顿的波默罗伊。在1989年9月比尔琼斯死后,尼基琼斯继续经营兰伯特江恩出版公司,销售江恩的著作和课程传播江恩的传统。在传记作者看来,江恩永远是最伟大的市场研究人员。他的交易生涯长达半个多世纪。他把自己的一生投入到了市场交易和研究里面。他研究了与价格运动中价格和时间变量相关的自然法则的各方面可能。

这项研究是他陷入对寻找市场波动原因和影响的痴迷。江恩发明的交易技巧在现在一样适用。他的图书馆里藏有了大量关于谐波、比例、生长、重力、电学、自然和自然现象的书籍和手稿。然而却没有任何关于未平仓合约、交易量、股票和期货的书籍。

那里唯一关于股票和期货的书籍和课程就是他自己。他是一个谦逊的人,尽管他对市场的了解比所有的交易员都多,在75岁的时候他说他还没有了解所有需要知道的知识。从他的人生和工作中学习是非常重要的。希望这篇文章能激励那么不了解江恩的人开始去了解他。(写于Halliker的演讲之后)

一些其他细节
江恩是一个20世纪早期的交易员。他从股票和期货获利的能力迄今无法被超越。江恩的技术分析方法预测价格和时间的目标都是独一无二的。直到现在,他的方法也没有被完全复制出来。

他的成功是传奇性的。江恩把小账户转变成巨额财富,为其增加几百倍的净收益。他有不计其数的成功交易案例,下面是其中一些:
1908年,把一个130美元的小账户在30天内增加到12000美元。
1923年,把一个973美元的账户在60天内增加到30000美元。
1933年,479单交易422单获利。准确率达到88%并获利4000%。
1946年,以4500美元为资本在三个月获利13000美元,获利率为400%。

下面的段落取自1909年的“股票”杂志。这段文字由“股票”前所有人和编辑R.D. Wyckoff撰写,在其中描述了江恩及时预测价格目标的突出能力。

“江恩先生做出的一个最令人震撼的计算是他去年夏天(1909年)预测今年9月小麦的出售价格会达到1.20美元。这就意味这价格必须在九月结束之前达到那个数字。芝加哥时间9月30日(那个月的最后一天)12点的时候,期权的交易价格低于1.08美元,这使得他的预测可能没法实现。江恩先生说,如果在闭市之前价格还达不到1.20美元,那就证明我整个方法和计算是错误的。我不关心现在的价格,它一定会达到那个点。那是一段众所周知的历史,九月小麦1.20美元的售价震惊了全国并且在最后一个交易小时里没有长,就在那个价格闭市。

江恩的交易方法基于他个人对适应所有存在事物自然秩序的信任。江恩出自一个虔诚的宗教徒家庭。因此,江恩不仅在他的生活中,而且在他的交易方法中运用圣经章节。江恩经常引用的是下面这段出自传道书1:9 - 10这段话:
“过去什么样,将来就什么样,过去完成的,将来也会被完成。太阳底下没有新生事物。即使是我们经常说“看,这个是新生的”,也已经在我们之前就存在了。

江恩认为在股票和期货市场中也存在宇宙秩序,现在我们也认同这个观点。价格运动不是以一个胡乱的,而是以一个可以提前决定的方式发生的。价格运动的可预测性是由自然界发现的数学力点引起的,那又是什么引起这些力点的呢?是的,就是我们身边的宇宙,世界和星辰。江恩在那个时候就知道这些。

这些力点不仅仅引起价格的运动,还让他们以一种可以预测的方式运动。对于未来的价格和时间目标,我们可以通过减少这些数学方程关系的数学力点轻松预测。

江恩的数学方程式并不复杂。他们会产生接下来价格的支撑和阻力。

江恩认为时间是交易的最重要元素。时间是期货价格趋势长度的决定因素。当时间决定趋势价格变化,价格可能在短时间内稳定或者在小范围内波动,但是最后他们会朝相反方向变化。时间是决定价格何时变化的因素。

某些价格反映发生在特定时间内。实际价格反映类型可以用江恩时间规则来预期和预测。

江恩时间周期不仅仅持续几天或者几周,而是几个月甚至几年。江恩交易年最先被平分成对等的两个六个月或者26个周。之后被分成8份和十六份。在你认为你了解了这一切之后,你会发现江恩交易年也被分成3份。

江恩交易年之内也有重要的时间段。例如,因为一周有七天,而七乘以七等于四十九,江恩发现49也是个非常重要的数字。重要的顶点和底点可能发生在第49和52天之间,尽管中间有变化,趋势可能在42到45天中间生成,因为45天是一年的八分之一。

其他的一些时间段对江恩来说也很重要,在这些时候价格变化是可以预测的。他们是:
主要顶点和底点的周年纪念日
主要顶点底点轻微反向变化后的七个月
10到14天是普通市场反向变化的长度。如果超过了这个时间,那么下一个反向变化将会出现在28到30天之后。

如果你没有迷糊,那么你就会了解江恩年不仅仅是一个日历年,而且是从主要顶点和底点开始的财务年。江恩时间规则考虑很多阶段,保罗季节性、圣经解释和天文事件。

让我们举个小例子。这是在江恩图表上一个天文学相关的例子。江恩的信念之一,源于他的“自然秩序”的概念,是行星运动对地球事件的影响,例如月亮对潮汐的影响。江恩的宇宙视角和传统的星相学不一样,在那些行星的影响中,例如价格的单位,在每个市场中都是独特的。

结论
a)江恩是时代的掌控者,是一个在短时间内无法找到与之比拟的人。不管人们怎么说,他的秘密还没有完全被揭开。

b)江恩十分卓越的,用他那个时代的方法创造出几乎完美的分析系统。在一个大概的了解之后一些人可能认为江恩的系统完全基于技术分析和命理学。通过更进一步观察我们会发现江恩更多时候把星相学元素当成他系统的重要组成部分。

c)江恩在一次讨论星相学时曽谈到他不能揭露他所有的工作,因为人们还不能接受他所有的信息。在1910年到1930年期间谈论把星相学当成财务分析的方法是不明智的。

d)现在人们把星相学当成一种科学并欣赏它。这种认可很可能是因为许多一生致力于在这一领域的人的努力工作。

e)江恩分析系统非常复杂:基础是星相学,更高层次他运用基本面分析和命理学,外层是技术分析。外层就足够我们走向成功。更深层次是为那些精神病和有足够勇气的人准备的。

通过五年的努力我们也成功发明了复杂的分析系统。我们不敢声称达到江恩的高度。我们运用相同的分析方法,使用相同的指标,但是我们拥有信息、数学和技术方面惊人的进步。我们是一个努力工作的团队并且仍然寻求改进系统地方法。我相信我们已经成功的为许多人提供了满意的分析。

William Gann – A Legend

William Delbert Gann was born June 6, 1878, in Lufkin, Texas, to Sam H. and Susan R. Gann, immigrants to Texas from the British Isles. Lufkin is midway between Houston and Texarkana. This part of Texas is cotton country and Gann’s parents lived on a Neches River bottom cotton ranch near Lufkin. He grew up around the cotton warehouses in Angelina County where cotton was king. W. D. Gann was raised in a very strict Methodist church family. His mother, a very religious person, encouraged him to read the Bible at a very early age, and in fact, wanted him to become a minister. Gann was not sure he wanted to become a minister, but studying the Bible was certainly easier than working in the cotton fields, as was his father’s wish. He attended church every Sunday with his parents and as he listened to the sermons found his interpretation of the Bible scriptures to differ from the minister’s. In the Bible he discovered time cycles, repetition of important numbers, and references to the wise men following the stars. Also, that it was written in veiled language that made interpreting the real meaning difficult. Since Gann had a photographic memory, by age 21 he had nearly memorized the Bible.

During his school years Gann excelled in mathematics and was generally called as a gifted mathematician. His tremendous appetite for knowledge and his open-minded attitude led him into many different fields of study that eventually resulted in discoveries in the markets that would otherwise have been overlooked. He completed high school in a time when most children were only able to attend school through the third or fourth grade. As a teenager, Gann liked to be called W. D., and he used these initials the rest of his life. W. D. pestered his parents until they relented and signed a minor release form that he needed to obtain a job. His first job was that of a News Butcher on the passenger train between Texarkana and Tyler, Texas. This job required him to be quick-witted, aggressive, and able to deal with all kinds of people. During his teen years, he worked in the cotton warehouses in Lufkin and Texarkana, Texas. While working in the cotton warehouse, he was introduced to commodity trading.

In 1902, at age 24, W. D. Gann made his first commodity trade in cotton, the market he knew best. The small profit from that trade marked the beginning of what was to become one of the most remarkable and legendary careers the speculative markets have ever known. Over the next 53 years, Gann took over $50,000,000 from the markets. It has been reported by a man who worked for Gann the last eight years of Gann’s life, that approximately 1/3 of the money he made was for himself and the other 2/3 was for the accounts he supervised for clients. From that very first trade, it is believed Gann was using principles and techniques he continued using throughout his trading career. The notations on some of his early charts substantiated this belief. As time progressed, his trading methods were refined.

In 1906 W. D. went to Oklahoma City. He worked as a broker for a brokerage firm, trading for himself while handling large accounts for clients. He studied the cause of success and failure in the speculation of other traders. He found that over 90% of traders who enter the markets without knowledge and study usually lose in the end. Gann also lost a significant amount of money and admitted his trading was based on hope, greed, and fear. Later on, in his books and courses, he cautioned all traders about these emotions. Early on, Gann began to note the periodical recurrence of rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led him to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. He then devoted ten years to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets. During that time he traveled to England, Egypt, and India to gain knowledge in ancient mathematics and astrology. In the British Museum in England he conducted extensive research on market cycles. In an Egyptian temple it is believed he found the basic construction of what was to become known as his Square of 9 Chart. After exhaustive research and investigation of the known sciences, he discovered the Law of Vibration enabled him to accurately determine the exact prices to which stocks or commodities would trade within a given time, and that each stock or commodity had its own rate of vibration.

At age 27, Gann was a well-known name in the Southwest. His views on the analysis of cotton prices were so well respected that a Texarkana newspaper, The Daily Texarkanian, ran a story on Gann’s cotton predictions. In 1908, at age 30, Gann moved to New York and opened his own brokerage office at 18 Broadway. He began testing his theories and techniques in the market. On August 8, 1908, he made one of his greatest mathematical discoveries for predicting the trend of stocks and commodities. This was “The Master Time Factor.” Within a year, it became clear to others that his success was based on more than just luck. No one researched time cycles as extensively as Gann. His charts show the cycles with which he worked, went back to history’s beginning, and bore no resemblance to other researcher’s time cycle studies.

In October 1909, Richard D. Wyckoff, Owner and Editor of The Ticker and Investment Digest asked Gann for an interview to document his trading ability for one month. The interview was granted, and Gann’s trades were monitored for 25 market days during the month of October in the presence of a Ticker representative. At that time the markets also traded on Saturday. Gann made 286 trades in various stocks, both long and short. There were 264 trades that resulted in profits and 22 in losses. 92.3% of the trades were profitable. The capital used doubled ten times resulting in 1000% gain on his original investment during those 25 trading days. What makes this even more phenomenal is that Gann did this with an average time between each trade of about twenty minutes. In one day Gann made 16 trades in the same stock, 8 of which were in either the top eighth or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. Such a performance is unparalleled in the history of Wall Street. As stated by James R. Keene, the famous speculator of that era, “The man who is right 6 times out of 10 will make his fortune.” It seems a foregone conclusion that Gann was picking tops and bottoms with a high degree of accuracy. At this point of time, in 1909, he was only 31 years of age, so whatever methods he was using had already been discovered. This biographer believes that after his sensational performance Gann regretted having granted the interview, as it was stated in the printed article that he did not know the results were to be published. When the article was printed in The Ticker Investment Digest, Gann was besieged with people asking how he was able to pick tops and bottoms as he had demonstrated. His only answer to them was he used The Law of Vibration to make all his calculations. At this conjuncture there were only two choices: l) to give away his secret discoveries and risk destroying the markets, or 2) to detract from his method of picking tops and bottoms by writing books and courses about mechanical trading systems, the use of geometrical angles, the use of Time and Price Charts, such as the Octagon Chart (Square of 9), Master 12 Chart (Square of 144), Hexagon Chart (the cube), Square of 90, Square of 52, 360 Degree Circle Chart, and many other trading techniques.

If Gann had continued trading using only his method of picking tops and bottoms, without a doubt he would have become one of the wealthiest men in the world, and in so doing would have attracted too much attention. He would have been asked too many questions by traders and would have been compelled to explain. However, at certain times, he probably used his method to advantage. Gann had a profound understanding of natural law, so rather than place himself in an embarrassing situation, he chose to trade using his mechanical systems and other techniques he had developed. Also, having more capital than was required for a good living was not important to him, as he was more interested in the knowledge possessed by ancient civilizations and the occult sciences. Gann understood how the Laws of Nature controlled human beings and, therefore, he understood the markets, because the markets are nothing more than an expression of the actions of human beings.

The two previous paragraphs are my belief. You may agree or disagree, but before you arrive at a conclusion, carefully study Gann’s 1909 trading demonstration. He made 286 trades in 25 days, which is 11 trades per day. To do this, you must pick the tops and bottoms on a short intraday time period.

If what I believe is true, it is very sad to think that a genius individual such as W. D. Gann, had to disguise the truth throughout his life, with a smoke screen of many trading methods and techniques. In 1918 his office address in New York was 81 New Street and in the early 1920’s was at 49 Broadway. Over the years, Gann maintained several offices in New York all located on Wall Street with the address numbers of 78, 80, 82, 88, 91, 93 and 99.

At the height of Gann’s career, he employed 35 individuals who made charts of all kinds, did analytical research at his direction, and performed many duties involved with his various publications and services. The name of one of his businesses was W. D. Gann Scientific Service, Inc., and the other, initiated in 1919, was W. D Gann Research, Inc. The firms published the following Supply and Demand Letters: Daily Stock Letter, Tri-Weekly Stock Letter, Weekly Stock Letter, Daily Commodity Letter, Tri-Weekly Commodity Letter, and Weekly Commodity Letter. Telegraph Service was all offered as follows: Daily Telegraph Service on Stocks, Daily Telegraph Service on Cotton, Daily Telegraph Service on Grain, and Telegrams on important Changes Only, on Stocks or Commodities. Published under Annual Forecasts were: Annual Stock Forecast, Annual Cotton Forecast, Annual Grain Forecast, Annual Rubber Forecast, Annual Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Forecast. Supplements to all Forecasts were issued and mailed on the first of each month. Special Forecasts on stocks or other commodities were made on request. Also offered were daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and swing charts on stocks and commodities. Gann taught advanced courses of instruction entitled Master Forecasting Method, at a cost of $2,500, and New Mechanical Method and Trend Indicator, at a cost of $5,000, to those who want it for their own use and will not publish, sell, or teach it to others. It is too valuable to be spread broadcasted. The cost of these courses and personal instruction in today’s economics would be $25,000 to $50,000, or more.

As early as 1923, Gann offered a service entitled “The Busy-Man’s Service.” This was a service for professional and businessmen where Gann supervised their trading accounts by advising them what and when to buy and sell. In later years the name of this service was changed to “Personal Service.”

The cost of this service was on a 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or annual basis, or on a Part-of-Profit Plan where the monthly fee was smaller and Gann received 5% of the net profits. Under the Part-of-Profit Plan it was required that a minimum of 100 shares be traded. The clients were advised by telegram or letter.

An article in The Evening Telegram dated New York, Monday, March 5, 1923, used the words “prophet” and “mathematical seer” to describe Gann. It also stated his followers declared he was 85% correct in his forecasts. He predicted the election of Wilson and Harding using fortunate numbers and fortunate letters combined with cycles. He predicted the abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war to the exact date six months in advance. His predictions were based on mathematics. He stated if he had the data he would use algebra and geometry to tell exactly by the theory of cycles when a certain thing is going to ocur again. He further stated that there is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. The article pointed out that Gann received calls every day from prominent persons asking him to cast their horoscope. It also said he told politicians whether or not they would be elected and solved problems for clergymen, bankers, and statesmen.

In another article in the Morning Telegraph, dated Sunday, December 17, 1922, the Financial Editor, Arthur Angy, stated that “W. D. Gann had scored another astounding hit in his 1922 stock forecast issued in December, 1921, I found his 1921 forecast so remarkable that I secured a copy of his 1922 stock forecast to prove his claims for myself. And now, at the closing of the current year of 1922, it is but justice to say I am more than amazed by the result of Mr. Gann’s remarkable predictions based on pure science and mathematical calculations. ”

W. D. and his wife, Sadie H. Gann, had one son and three daughters born to their marriage. Their son, John L. Gann, was in partnership with his father for several years in the late 1930’s and early 1940’s, operating under the firm name of W. D. Gann & Son, Inc. Apparently, the two personalities were not always compatible, as their association was ended in the mid 1940’s. This writer has been told one of their main differences concerned astrology, as John did not believe astrology had any effect on market movements, or human behavior. This probably upset W. D. as he knew well the effect of planetary motion on the markets and the individual. Following the association with his father, John served as a broker for many years for the firm Sulzbacher, Granger & Co. in New York City. It is believed that John passed away in 1984.
For many years Gann maintained a home in Scarsdale, New York, which was, at the time, the estate bedroom community for New York City. In an article that appeared in the May 26, 1933 New York Daily Investment News, it was reported that Gann left New York in the first 1933 model Stinson Reliant airplane, piloted by Flinor Smith, a woman aviator, to conduct an extensive tour of the country analyzing cotton, wheat, and tobacco crops, and business conditions. The airplane was equipped with navigation instruments, radio receiving equipment and extra-large fuel tanks that gave a flying range of 750 miles. It was powered with a Lycoming engine and cruised at 135 miles per hour. Gann was the first Wall Street advisor to se an airplane for studying market conditions so he could advise clients much faster of changing market conditions. During his trip he was a speaker to members of Kiwanis, Rotary, Chamber of Commerce, and other business organizations in various larger cities throughout the United States.
In 1935, Gann made an airplane trip to South America for studying crop conditions, and to gather information on the increase and production of cotton in Peru, Chili, Argentina, and Brazil. He logged 18,000 miles by air and another 1,000 miles by automobile.
In July of 1936 Gann purchased a specially built all metal airplane, which he named “The Silver Star,” and used in making crop surveys. In July of 1939 he purchased a new Fairchild airplane for the same purpose.
Gann was a member of the Commodity Exchange, Inc. of New York, the New Orleans Cotton Exchange, the Rubber Exchange of New York, the Royal Economic Society of London, the American Economic Society, the Masonic Lodge, the Shrine, the Chicago Board of Trade, and was a devout Christian in the Methodist Church.

Gann had a winter home in Miami, Florida, and in the 1940’s moved there on a full-time basis. His office was at 820 S. W. 26th Road in Miami. While in Florida, he continued his advisory services as well as teaching his commodity and stock market courses, either in person or by mail. By the late 1940’s he had a recommended list of Books For Sale that included the subjects of numerology, astrology, scientific, and miscellaneous. He was involved in real estate holdings, and enjoyed large automobiles, especially Lincolns, which he purchased new yearly. In 1954, after making several successful coffee and soybean trades, Gann purchased a fast express cruising boat that he named “The Coffee Bean.” It was reported that Gann wore the same type of suit throughout his life, and that his home was filled with items collected in his world travels. He vacationed often in South America. But, in the opinion of his peers, he did not live beyond his means.
W. D. Gann wrote some of the best books ever written on the stock and commodity markets. The following is a list of the books written by him and the year they were published:
peculation a Profitable Profession
The Truth of the Stock Tape
The Tunnel Thru the Air
Wall Street Stock Selector
Stock Trend Detector Scientific Stock Forecasting
How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls
Face Facts America. Looking Ahead to 1950
How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities
45 Years in Wall Street
The Magic Word

Gann was a prolific writer. His style of writing was unique. Readers of his books considered him to be a poor writer with a limited use of the English language. Not so! Upon methodic study of his work, the reader will discover in time the Gann method of teaching. He will inspire the reader to research everything from the origin of numbers to the musical scale and vibrations.

W. D. Gann, in my estimation, was a genius. He was born a Gemini with a high intellectual capacity, and a dual personality that caused him to be both genial and obstinate. He was a gifted mathematician, an expert chart reader, and had an extraordinary memory for figures. Take away his science and he would beat the market on chart reading alone. One of Gann’s most important technical tools was his charts and no one kept up as many as he did. Gann’s charts encompassed 55 years, from 1900 to 1955. During this time thousands of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and other various charts, were made with great care, each a work of art. He believed charting was an art and if you understood everything the chart was showing, it would aid in forecasting the next day, week, or month’s, price movements. Gann was a workaholic, at times working 17 hours per day, 6 days per week. He was very demanding of those who worked with and for him, and expected the same effort from them that he himself put forth. He expected to issue instructions only once and did not feel it should be necessary to repeat them.

Gann was deeply analytical and studied price actions of various stocks and commodities back through the years. He spent nine months in the British Museum working day and night researching stock and commodity prices and dates from 1820, and wheat prices and dates from 1200. He also spent long hours and long days in the Astor Library in New York City researching stock and commodity markets. He was a student of numbers, number theory, progressions, and the progression of numbers. His trading system was based on natural law and mathematics. Since time progresses as the earth rotates on its axis and in its order, and time is measured by numbers and progression of numbers, and prices in their movement upward and downward are also measured in numbers, it is understandable why Gann had an intense interest in numbers, number theory, and mathematics. A keen understanding of natural laws and their effect on mankind have a direct effect on the markets. The markets are only extensions or reflections of man’s actions.

In Gann’s time there were no calculators. He used a slide rule and the various master charts he developed, such as the Square of 9, for his calculator. He kept an open mind to any trading ideas to achieve perfection. When making his forecasts, he used many methods to arrive at the time for a trend change, and all of them to confirmed he was correct. In his early trading he made thousands of dollars. But, by listening to false rumors and other people’s ideas, he also lost thousands of dollars. In 1913 and again in 1919, he lost small fortunes when the brokerage firms he was trading with went bankrupt. One of these firms was Murray Mitchell and Company. In those days the client’s funds were not protected by exchange regulations in case of a failure, as they are today.

During this time he was also involved in two bank failures. Regardless of these losses and misfortunes, he was always able to rely upon mathematical science to aid him in making a financial comeback. This is why Gann states that knowledge of the market is more important than money.

Today, people believe “times are different,” but Gann’s time saw its bull markets and panics in the stock market, bull markets and panics, in the commodity market, wars, inflationary periods, depressions, bank closings, etc. In 1921 the rate of inflation was 100%. Strikes were rampant, jobs impossible to find, and productivity at very low levels. The Great Depression of 1929 to 1932 and the outright confiscation of the citizen’s gold that was exchanged for printed money, left deep scars on the country and it’s citizens. W. D. Gann was avidly against the New Deal and Roosevelt’s creeping socialism. Therefore, to learn from other people’s past experiences, people today should understand Gann’s famous quotation, “The future is but a repetition of the past, or as the Bible says, the thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done, is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the Sun.” Gann said, “The average man’s memory is too short. He only remembers what he wants to remember or what suits his hopes and fears. He depends too much on others and does not think for himself. Therefore, he should keep a record, graph, or picture of past market movements to remind him what has happened in the past can, and will, happen in the future. Panics will come and bull markets will follow just as long as the world stands and they are just as sure as the ebb and flow of the tides, because it is the nature of man to overdo everything. He goes to the extreme when he gets hopeful and optimistic. When fear takes hold of him, he goes to the extreme in the other direction.”

In How to Make Profits in Commodities -- Gann made the following comments regarding knowledge as he believed knowledge is power. All who read this should heed and always remember his advice. “The difference between success and failure in trading in commodities is the difference between one man knowing and following fixed rules and the other man guessing. The man who guesses usually loses. Therefore, if you want to make a success and make profits, your object must be to know more; study all the time; never think that you know it all. I have been studying stocks and commodities for forty years, and I do not know it all yet. I expect to continue to learn something every year as long as I live. Observations, and keen comparisons of past market movements, will reveal what commodities are going to do in the future, because the future is but a repetition of the past. Time spent in gaining knowledge is money in the bank. You can lose all the money you may accumulate or that you may inherit - that is if you have no knowledge of how to take care of it - but with knowledge you can take a small amount of money and make more after time spent in gaining knowledge. A study of commodities will return rich rewards.”

Sometime in 1947, Gann sold W. D. Gann Research, Inc. to C. C. Loosli, a San Francisco attorney. He became disenchanted with the business and on February 14, 1948, W. D. Gann Research, Inc. was transferred to Mr. Joseph L. Lederer of St. Louis, Missouri. The office for W. D. Gann Research, Inc. was maintained at 82 Wall Street in New York until 1952. Then it was moved to Scarsdale, New York, and in 1956 relocated to St. Louis, Missouri, where its only business was that of investment adviser.

In 1950 in Miami, Florida, Gann and a partner, Ed Lambert, founded Lambert-Gann Publishing Co. Ed Lambert was an architect who designed the Inter-State Highway System in the greater Miami area Lambert Gann Publishing Co. published all Gann’s books and courses.

W. D. Gann passed away in the Methodist Hospital in Brooklyn, New York, on June 14, 1955, at the age of 77. He was survived by his wife, Sadie, three daughters, and a son. That day the world truly lost a market legend.

After Mr. Gann’s death in 1955, Ed Lambert continued to operate the business that included a chart service of updated Gann style charts. He was not as active in promoting Gann’s writings as when Gann was alive, so for the following twenty years Gann’s work became quite obscure. In 1976 Bill and Nikki Jones of Pomeroy, Washington, purchased Lambert-Gann Publishing Co. and the Gann copyrights. In the purchase were all of his personal researches including thousands of his charts, papers, books, and writings he had collected through fifty years of trading and research. There were also tables and miscellaneous office furniture used by Gann. The largest Mayflower moving van available was required to transport this purchase to Pomeroy, Washington. Following Billy Jones’ death in September 1989, Nikki Jones continues to operate Lambert Gann Publishing Co., carrying on the Gann tradition with the sale of his books and courses. In this biographer’s opinion, W. D. Gann was the greatest market researcher of all time. His trading career spanned more than a half century. During that time he devoted his total life to market research and trading. He researched every possible aspect of natural laws in conjunction with variables of price and time in market movements.

The following is taken from 45 Years in Wall Street and is very good advice and very true in today’s world. “Every man takes out of life just exactly according to what he puts in. We reap just what we sow. A man who pays with time and money for knowledge and continues to study and never gets to the point where he thinks he knows all there is to know, but realizes that he can still learn, is the man who will make a success in speculation or in investments. I am trying to tell you the truth and give you the benefit of over 45 years of operating in stocks and commodity markets and point out to you the weak points that will prevent you from meeting with disaster. Speculation can be made a profitable profession. Wall Street can be beaten and there is money operating in commodities and the stock market if you follow the rules and always realize that the unexpected can happen and be prepared for it.”

This study became an obsession to find the cause and effect of market fluctuations, which he did. The trading techniques Gann developed work the same today as they did when he used them. His library contained volumes of books and manuscripts on harmonic waves, proportion, growth, gravity, electricity, nature, and natural phenomena. However, there were no books on open interest, volume, stocks, or commodities.

The only books and courses on commodities and stocks were his own. He was a humble man who stated, at age 75, that he had not learned all there was to know, and yet, he knew more about the markets than any trader who ever lived. There is an important lesson to be learned from the study of his life and his work. For those of you who have diligently studied his writings, you will understand my statements. Hopefully, for those of you who are not familiar with Gann, this writing will inspire you to begin. (presentation after Halliker)

2. Some other details
William D. Gann was a trader of the early 20th century. His abilities for profiting form the stock and commodity markets remain unchallenged. Gann’s methods of technical analysis for projecting both price and time targets are unique. Even today, his methods have yet to be fully duplicated.

His successes are legendary. Gann literally converted small accounts into fortunes, increasing their net balances by several hundred percent. There are numerous examples of his trading successes, among which are these:
1908 – a $130 account increased to $12.000 in 30 days.
1923 – a $973 account increased to $30.000 in 60 days.
1933 – 479 trades were made with 422 being profitable. This is an accuracy of 88% and 4000% profit.
1946 – A 3-month net profit of $13.000 from starting capital of $4500 – a 400% profit.

The following paragraph appeared in the December 1909 issue of “Ticket” Magazine. It was written by R.D. Wyckoff, the former owner and editor of the “Ticket”, and describes Gann’s proficiency for projecting price targets forward in time:
“One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o’clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling bellow $1.08 and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, ‘If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market, it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculations. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there’. It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no high in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure”.

Gann’s trading methods are based on personal beliefs of a natural order existing for everything in the universe. Gann was part of a family with strong religious beliefs. As a result, Gann would often use Biblical passages as a basis for not only his life, but his trading methods. A passage often quoted by Gann was this from Ecclesiastes 1:9 - 10:
“What has been, that will be; what has been done, that will be done. Nothing is new under the sun. Even the thing of which we say, ‘See, this is new!”, has already existed in the ages that preceded us.”

This universal order of nature also existed, Gann determined, and we have the same opinion now, in the stock and commodity markets. Price movements occurred, not in a random manner, but in a manner that cat be pre-determined. The predictable movements of prices result from the influence of mathematical points of forces found in nature… And what is the cause for all this points of forces? Right… cosmos…universe...all planets around us. This Gann could say at that time.

These points of force were felt to cause prices to not only move, but move in a manner that can be anticipated. Future targets for both price and time can we confidently projected by reducing these mathematical points of forces to terms of mathematical equations and relationships.

The mathematical equations of Gann are not complex. They result in lines of support and resistance which prices invariably will follow.

Gann held that time is the most important element of trading. Time is the factor that determines the length of a commodity’s price trend. When time dictates that trending prices should react, prices may stabilize for a short period, or they may fluctuate within a tight range, but eventually they will react by reversing direction. Time is the element that will determine WHEN prices should react.

Certain price reactions are found to occur during specific times. The actual TYPE of price reaction can be anticipated, and pre-determined, by using Gann time rules.

Gann time periods last not only days or weeks, but months and even years. Gann’s trading year is first divided in half, equivalent to 6 months or 26 weeks. The year is then divided by eighths, and then by sixteenths. And then, after you think you understand all of this, you find that Gann’s year is also divided by thirds.

There are also important time periods within the Gann year. For example, since a week is 7 days, and 7 times 7 is 49, Gann’s work found that 49 is a significant number too. Important tops or bottoms may occur between the 49th and 52nd day, although an intermediate change – in – trend may occur between the 42nd and 45th day, because 45 days in 1/8 of a year.

Other time periods that were important to Gann, at which a price reaction could be expected, are:
- Anniversary dates of major tops and bottoms
- 7 months after a major top or bottom for a minor reaction.
- 10 to 14 days is the length for a reaction in a normal market. If this period is exceeded, the next reaction should be expected after 28 to 30 days.

If you’re not already confused, understand that Gann’s year may not only be calendar, but “fiscal” as well; starting from major tops or bottoms. Gann’s time rules consider many periods, including seasonality, Biblical references, and astronomical events.

Let’s see a little example. This is an example of astronomical correlations on a Gann chart. One of Gann’s beliefs, stemming from his “natural order” concept, is the influence of planetary movements on earthly events, such as the moon’s perceived effect in tides. This “cosmic perspective” of Gann is unlike conventional astrology, in that planetary influences, like units of price, are unique to each market.

Conclusions
a. Gann was a master of his time, a personality not easy to match any time soon. No matter what others say, his secrets have not been fully discovered yet.

b. Gann managed, with the methods of his time, and this is quite remarkable, to create an almost perfect system. After a general view some might consider that his system is entirely based on technical analysis and numerology. At a closer look we discover that Gann discretely refers numerous times to elements of astrology as an important part of his system.

c. Gann admitted one time, when talking about astrology, that he can not reveal all aspects of his work because people are not yet prepared for this kind of information. Talking about astrology as a method of financial analysis wouldn’t have been wise in the time of 1910-1930,

d. Nowadays the society acknowledges the value of astrology as a science and appreciates it. This recognition is possible because of the hard work of many people that dedicated their life to researching this domain.

e. Gann had a complex system: the basis was astrology; at a higher level he used fundamental analysis and numerology; the outer layer was technical analysis. What remained to the successors was the outer layer. The depths are for those patient and courageous enough to walk his path.

f. After five years of research we have also managed to develop a complex system of analysis. We don’t claim to have reached Gann’s perfection. We use although the same methods of analysis, we work with the same indicators but we have the advantage of the amazing improvements in informatics, mathematics and technology. We are a team that worked hard and that is still looking for ways of improving the system. We believe we have managed to offer analysis many people are very satisfied with.


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