乔治.索罗斯:一个精英投资人的理念

2015-04-24 21:05:09

 你以前知道乔治.索罗斯1969年1000美元的投资现在变成400万美元了吗?扣除管理费用后,这个独立对冲基金经理创造了巨大的年回报。他旗下的量子基金受到投资者的顶礼膜拜。尽管有对他交易策略的憎恨和交易理念的争论,乔治

.索罗斯还是领先了世界经营投资阶层几十年。1981年,《机构投资人》杂志称他为“世界上最伟大的资金管理人”。
 
索罗斯的理念
乔治.索罗斯是个短期投资人。他在金融市场上进行大规模、高杠杆的投资。他著名的对冲基金,以一个基于汇率、商品价格、股票、证券、衍生产品和其他资产宏的观经济分析进行大规模单方向投资的理念而著称。
 
简单的说,索罗斯认为这些投资品价格将会上升或者下降。这是基于研究和本能执行的直觉交易。索罗斯研究他的目标,让各类金融市场和其参与者的运动指引他的交易。他指出他交易策略背后的理念是反射性的。这个理论摒弃传统的平衡市场环境的概念,即所有信息都是已知的并影响价格。反之,索罗斯认为,市场参与者直接影响市场基本面,且他们的非理性行为影响市场的繁荣或者萧条并提供投资机会。
 
房价为他的理论提供了一个很有趣的例子。当银行使贷款更加容易,更多的人就会借钱。当人们手里有钱之后,他们就会买房,这将导致商品房需求量的增加。需求的增加导致价格的上升,价格的上升鼓励银行更多的放贷。借款人手中更多的资金导致商品房需求的上升,这样一个上升的螺旋循环构成一个在经济基本面上合理的房价的上升。放贷人和买家对商品价格有直接的影响。
 
一个基于认为房地产市场即将崩盘观点的投资反映了索罗斯一个典型的投资。当房地产市场从繁荣走向衰退时卖空豪华住宅建筑商的股票或者住房贷款机构的股票将会是的两个潜在获利投资。
 
主要交易
 
乔治.索罗斯将永远被当成那个“打垮英格兰银行”的人们而记住。作为一个著名的外汇投机商,索罗斯不把他的眼光限制在一个特定的地理区域,而是在寻找机会时把整个世界考虑在内。1992年9月,他借了数十亿美元的英镑并将他们转换成了德国马克。
 
当英镑崩盘后,索罗斯迅速以新的、低价值的英镑偿还了他的借款,在一天内因英镑和德国马克价值的变化赚取了超过10亿美元。在冲底之后,他总共赚取将近20亿美元。
 
他在1997年亚洲经济危机时对亚洲货币做出了同样的举动,参与投机热潮并导致泰铢的崩盘。这些交易非常的有效,因为投机者做空的国家货币与其他货币挂钩,这意味着有协议支撑着这些货币以确保他们与挂钩货币维持一个特定的汇率。
 
当投机者投资后,货币的发行者将被迫去维持在公开市场上购买他们货币的汇率。当政府用尽资金被迫放弃那一努力后,货币价值将一落千丈。
 
那时各国都处在索罗斯会对他们货币感兴趣的恐惧里。如果他那么做了,其他投机者将会立刻加入战局,这被描述成一群狼盯上了一群麋鹿。投机者可以借到的大量资金和杠杆的使用使各国政府几乎无力承受攻击。
 
尽管取得了巨大的成功,但索罗斯的交易不是每一次都能获利的。1987他预测美国市场将会持续增长,在那次冲击中他的基金损失了3亿美元,尽管还是获得了一个较低的双位数年回报。
 
他还在1998年俄罗斯债务危机中遭受了20亿美元的损失,在1998年互联网泡沫投资下跌时损失了7亿美元。因为遭受了损失,他在预期增长上投入大量资金。当市场最终崩盘是他损失了将近30亿美元。
 
总结
像索罗斯一样投资不适合那些胆小或者资金不雄厚的人。多投资多盈利的另一面就是多投资多损失。如果你不能承受损失,你就不能承受像索罗斯一样投资。尽管许多全球宏观对冲基金交易员是相对低调的类型,不希望他们赚取财富受到太多的关注,索罗斯对许多经济和政治事件的立场都非常公开。
 
公开的立场和巨大的成功使索罗斯自己成为了一类人。在过去超过30年的时间里,他几乎每一个投资都是正确的,这使他在交易员和投资者之间产生了大量粉丝,也在那些因他投机活动受到损失的人中产生大量的批评者。
 
George Soros: The Philosophy Of An Elite Investor 
 
By Lisa Smith
 
Did you know that a $1,000 investment with George Soros in 1969, would have been worth more than $4 million by now? This maverick hedge fund manager generated significant annual returns, after management fees. His flagship Quantum Fund is revered by investors. Despite the animosity generated by his trading tactics and the controversy surrounding his investment philosophy, George Soros spent decades at the head of the class among the world's elite investors. In 1981, Institutional Investor magazine named him "the world's greatest money manager."
 
Soros' Philosophy
George Soros is a short-term speculator. He makes massive, highly-leveraged bets on the direction of the financial markets. His famous hedge fund is known for its global macro strategy, a philosophy centered around making massive, one-way bets on the movements of currency rates, commodity prices, stocks, bonds, derivatives and other assets based on macroeconomic analysis.
 
Simply put, Soros bets that the value of these investments will either rise or fall. This is "seat of the pants" trading, based on research and executed on instinct. Soros studies his targets, letting the movements of the various financial markets and their participants dictate his trades. He refers to the philosophy behind his trading strategy as reflexivity. The theory eschews traditional ideas of an equilibrium-based market environment where all information is known to all market participants and thereby factored into prices. Instead, Soros believes that market participants themselves directly influence market fundamentals, and that their irrational behavior leads to booms and busts that present investment opportunities.
 
Housing prices provide an interesting example of his theory in action. When lenders make it easy to get loans, more people borrow money. With money in hand, these people buy homes, which results in a rise in demand for homes. Rising demand results in rising prices. Higher prices encourage lenders to lend more money. More money in the hands of borrowers results in rising demand for homes, and an upward spiraling cycle that results in housing prices that have been bid up way past where economic fundamentals would suggest is reasonable. The actions of the lenders and buyers have had a direct influence on the price of the commodity.
 
An investment based on the idea that the housing market will crash would reflect a classic Soros bet. Short-selling the shares of luxury home builders or shorting the shares of major housing lenders would be two potential investments seeking to profit when the housing boom goes bust. 
 
Major Trades
 
George Soros will always be remembered as "the man who broke the Bank of England." A well-known currency speculator, Soros does not limit his efforts to a particular geographic area, instead considering the entire world when seeking opportunities. In September of 1992, he borrowed billions of dollars worth of British pounds and converted them to German marks.
 
When the pound crashed, Soros repaid his lenders based on the new, lower value of the pound, pocketing in excess of $1 billion in the difference between the value of the pound and the value of the mark during a single day's trading. He made nearly $2 billion in total after unwinding his position.
 
He made a similar move with Asian currencies during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, participating in a speculative frenzy that resulted in the collapse of the baht (Thailand's currency). These trades were so effective because the national currencies the speculators bet against were pegged to other currencies, meaning that agreements were in place to "prop up" the currencies in order to make sure that they traded in a specific ratio against the currency to which they were pegged.
 
When the speculators placed their bets, the currency issuers were forced to attempt to maintain the ratios by buying their currencies on the open market. When the governments ran out of money and were forced to abandon that effort, the currency values plummeted. 
 
Governments lived in fear that Soros would take an interest in their currencies. When he did, other speculators joined the fray in what's been described as a pack of wolves descending on a herd of elk. The massive amounts of money the speculators could borrow and leverage made it impossible for the governments to withstand the assault.
 
Despite his masterful successes, not every bet George Soros made worked in his favor. In 1987, he predicted that the U.S. markets would continue to rise. His fund lost $300 million during the crash, although it still delivered low double-digit returns for the year.
 
He also took a $2 billion hit during the Russian debt crisis in 1998 and lost $700 million in 1999 during the tech bubble when he bet on a decline. Stung by the loss, he bought big in anticipation of a rise. He lost nearly $3 billion when the market finally crashed.
 
Conclusion
Trading like George Soros is not for the faint of heart or the light of wallet. The downside of betting big and winning big is betting big and losing big. If you can't afford to take the loss, you can't afford to bet like Soros. While most global macro hedge fund traders are relatively quiet types, avoiding the spotlight while they earn their fortunes, Soros has taken very public stances on a host of economic and political issues.
 
His public stance and spectacular success put Soros largely in a class by himself. Over the course of more than three decades, he made the right moves nearly every time, generating legions of fans among traders and investors, and legions of detractors among those on the losing end of his speculative activities. 
 
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/how-soros-does-it.asp
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