预测未来最好的方法是对历史有一个全面的了解，著名的交易专家W.D. Gann在金融市场有50多年的经验，他对迄今为止一百多年前的数据都有所研究。最令他满意的发现就是历史会重复，历史走势是未来价格走势最好的预测者。他在过去半个多世纪对时间周期的预测证明是正确的，因为这些预测是基于人类的本性，而这是不变的。

Gann是一个复杂的人。他在大萧条时期以$5,000售出他的硕士课程——即使在今天也是一笔巨款。人们付了款之后发现，仍然有很多不理解的地方。就像Gann在你的咖啡桌上扔了一个由1000块零散部分组成的智能拼图，你需要在没有原图参照的情况下将它拼在一起。很显然，今天的这一代交易者都希望从一个很昂贵的交易课程中得到很多，这也就很容易理解为什么很多人认为他的作品神秘而迷惑。

我们不能在一篇文章里涵盖Gann的种种神秘性，但是我们却可以将一些拼图部分成功的组合到一起。
对Gann而言，最重要也是最有价值的发现是价格与时间可以构成正方形。意思是，同等数量的价位对应同等的时间周期，因此，准确地预测趋势中的重要变化是有可能的。当然，各种不同的情况是存在的。我们下面将会看一些宏观的以及适合每日交易的例子。

崩盘事件
1987年崩盘之前，道琼斯工业指数的最高点和最低点分别在2, 746.6和1, 638.3，波动范围在1, 108.3个点。而从1987.8.25至2008.11.21共1,108.4周。我们需要忽视的是正在研究道琼斯指数的顶部（纳斯达克指数在1987.10月达到最高点，比道琼斯指数晚了2个月）并且纳斯达克指数在那一日最终达到了底部。这一市场变革是我们必须做的最复杂调整之一，因为Gann主要研究道琼斯指数以及标普500.

 
毫无疑问的是，从1987年到2008.11.21牛市的底部与交易范围之间行成了一个方形。过去几年中市场积累的悲观情绪导致的每一次抛售所显示的熊市底部重要的周期性以及其与前期高点之间的关系都被误解。

1987年道琼斯指数的高点在整个世纪中都被认为有重要意义，是1989年以后牛市的开始。1108.49这个数字也很关键，因为纳斯达克指数在2002年的熊市达到了该价位。

2008年奈斯达克100的低点不是一个随机的轴点，而是历史作用于长期市场走势的结果。当前的投资以及交易决策应该考虑到这一点。所以，每一次市场抛售不会导致更进一步的熊市低点。既然这一低点如此重要，那么如果想要击穿它势必需要强有力的干预手段。

下面是一个小范围的但是同等重要的例子。标普500在1576.09 至666.79 之间波动，幅度达到 909.30点，在2007.10.11达到最高点。如果我们从2007.10.11至2010.4.26计算，那么我们将会得到928日，很显然，不成立。

然而，市场交易从来不是简单的事，你需要不断地挖掘市场试图隐藏的真正目的。当我们从2007.10.31至2010.4.26计算纳斯达克指数天数时，结果是908日，结果相差1（正负差1是可以接受的）。这中关系标志重要的交易滞后性。

Gann的一些材料对于现代的交易者来说很神秘。其中一个原因是并不是所有的资料都十分清楚。或许他希望自己的学生进行自己的研究。这种理念有几种变体。波动范围在长期之后会呈正方形。对于道琼斯以及纳斯达克100指数，1987年以来的时间与交易范围呈正方形。别的情况下，交易者需要从极低点开始计算，交易者也有可能得到1，108的波动范围，并且与最低点、最高点之间都呈正方形。对所有可能性都持开放态度，这一点很重要。

诚然，这一点很具有迷惑性，Gann也从来没有预见到自己的方法适用于高速运转的网络世界。因此，现代交易者探索这些技术将会面临更大的挑战。

21世纪的Gann
短期交易者需要对掌握小数点并对其进行调整。2007~2009年道琼斯处于熊市，高点为14,198 低点是 6,470，波幅7,728点。从2009.3.6的底部至2010.8.27，当道琼斯指数于8月份之后在9,937位置抛售，实现了重要的反转，很少人意识到其距离底部已经达到77周。

安进股价在8.27号达到低点，65日之后达到另外一个低点。10.19号达到58.74的高点，11.29号的低点为52.19，波动范围在6.55。交易者都需要适应五位数的道琼斯指数，四位数的标普500指数，小数点后2~4位数的外汇报价。

7700/77 与65/6.55的意义相当。这既可以单独的也可以结合别的工具使用。正如我们所看到的，长期波动范围的计算很难与别的方法结合使用。然而，短期交易是关于价格波动的确定性以及给交易者提供足够的交易证据。交易的可能性越大，盈利的可能性也就越大。

比如，安进股价以及安德鲁分叉线。价格在这个特定形态的下半部分反转，这在技术层面给了交易者更多的交易信心。这是交易者入场的一个很好的时机，但是接下来价格的小幅波动挑战了交易者的信心。最终，价格形成缺口并上移至通道的中部，使之成为一个很好的震荡交易。

另外一个变体是时间与价格在相同的位置形成正方形。KBW银行指数在四月份达到顶部是一个很好的例子。从2009.3月的底部到58.81的价格最高点大约是59周。从2009.3.6至2010.4.21，共58.71周) 这种方法给了交易者很高的时间精准度。如果方形关系可以被一个关键部门或者重要的市场领导者识别，那么这将会是一个很大的优势，因为他可以利用该信息获得很多交易机会。

我们大多数人对于Gann的方法都很陌生，因此，在学习时，我们需要呈开放的态度。那些首次练习这些方法的交易者需要足够的耐心来信赖这种模式。Gann把这种波动范围和时间呈正方形的交易方法视为他最重要的发现，这种方法即使在今天也毫不逊色。

W.D. Gann's master forecasting methods

The best way to predict the future is to have an understanding of the past, noted master trader W.D. Gann who had more than 50 years of experience in financial markets and did research dating back hundreds of years. What he found to his satisfaction was that history repeats, and the past is the best predictor of future prices. His forecasts of time cycles over a half century proved to be accurate because those cycles are based on human nature, which does not change.

Gann was a complex individual. He sold his master course during the Great Depression for $5,000 — a small fortune in today’s dollars. People paid the price, but found a lot was left to interpretation, perhaps akin to Gann dropping a 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle on your coffee table and leaving you to assemble it without a picture. Needless to say, today’s generation of traders would expect more out of an expensive trading course, so it’s understandable why so many find his work mysterious and confusing.

We can’t conquer Gann’s mysteries in one article, but we can put a few practical pieces of that puzzle together.

According to Gann himself, one of his most important and valuable discoveries was that price squares with time. This means that it’s possible to forecast important changes in a trend with greater accuracy because an equal number of price points balance an equal number of time periods. There are variations, though. We’ll look at some macro examples and then one that is applicable to everyday trading.

Crash matters
The high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the 1987 crash came in at 2,746.6 and bottomed out at 1,638.3, for a range of 1,108.3 points (see "Crashed out"). When we take the time from Aug. 25, 1987, to Nov. 21, 2008, it comes out to 1,108.4 weeks. We must overlook that we are working with a Dow top (the Nasdaq 100 topped in October 1987, two months later than the Dow) and an ultimate Nasdaq 100 bottom on that date. This market evolution is one of the complex adjustments we must make because Gann dealt mostly with the Dow and S&P 500.

It is beyond doubt that the range from the 1987 sequence has squared time to the point where the market traced out one of its bear market bottoms on Nov. 21, 2008. With all the bearish sentiment the past couple of years, each sell-off demonstrates how much the cyclical importance of the bear market bottom is misunderstood — as well as its ties to the cycle top of a generation earlier.

The 1987 high was recognized as an important top for the entire decade, until it was taken out in 1989 on the recovery that led to the bull market of the 1990s. The 1,108 number also appears to be critical because 1108.49 is also the low for the Nasdaq Composite in the bear market in 2002.

The 2008 Nasdaq 100 low is not just some random pivot, but a point in history tied into long-term market cycles. It should be put into context with current investment and trading decisions. Every market sell-off will not lead to new bear market lows. However, given that low is so important, it would take a powerful leg to violate and invalidate it.

The next example is of a smaller degree but no less significant. The S&P 500 bear market had a range of 1576.09 to 666.79 for 909.30 points, which topped on Oct. 11, 2007. If we take the number of calendar days from Oct. 11, 2007 to the April 26, 2010 high we get 928 days, so apparently it doesn’t work.

However, the market is never easy and it makes you dig as it attempts to conceal its true hand. When we take the Nasdaq top from Oct. 31, 2007 to April 26, 2010, we get 908 calendar days, which puts us off by one. (A margin of error of plus or minus one is acceptable.) The relationship marked an important trading leg down.

Much of Gann’s material is a mystery to modern day traders. One reason is that not all of Gann’s principles are clear. Perhaps the master wanted his students to do their own due diligence. There are several variations to this concept. The range will square over a long period of time. In the case of the Dow and Nasdaq 100, time squared with the range from the extreme high back in 1987 to a market bottom. In other instances, the trader might have to calculate from the extreme low. It also is possible a range such as 1,108 could have squared from either the top or bottom and terminated to create the top. It’s important to be open to all of the possibilities.

Granted, this can be confusing, and Gann never envisioned his methods to be used in a fast-paced Internet world. Given that, it is no doubt more challenging for modern traders to exploit these techniques.

21st century Gann
Shorter-term trading requires an adjustment and the manipulation of the decimal point. The Dow bear market of 2007-09 had a high of 14,198 to a low of 6,470, for a range of 7,728 points. From the bottom on March 6, 2009 to Aug. 27, 2010, when the Dow made an important turn after the August sell off at 9,937, few people realized that it was 77 weeks off the bottom.

Amgen had a low on that August turn and found another low 65 trading days later (see "Pitching in"). With a high on Oct. 19 at 58.74 and a low at 52.19, there was a range of 6.55. In a world with a five-digit Dow, four-digit SPX and either two to four digits to the right of the decimal on futures or forex, traders must adapt.

In the case of 7700/77 or 65/6.55, the meaning is the same. This can be used as a standalone technique or in combination with another tool. As we have seen, it would be hard to combine a long-term range calculation with any other method. However, shorter-term trading is about developing conviction about a move and the more evidence the trader can stack, the greater the probability he or she will get to the point of allowing a winner to run.

For example, the Amgen move is combined with an Andrew’s pitchfork. This particular pattern reversed right on the lower pitchfork line to give the trader more confidence in the overall technical condition. There was good evidence to take the initial trade, but with early congestion, it may have challenged the trader’s faith. Eventually, this move gapped through the midline right to the upper channel, making it a good swing trade.

Another variation is where time and price square in the same place. A great example of this was the April top in the KBW Bank Index (see "Banking on it"). The high since the March 2009 bottom came in at price point 58.81 in roughly 59 weeks. (From March 6, 2009 to April 21, 2010 it is exactly 58.71 weeks.) This method gives the trader a high degree of timing precision. If a square relationship can be identified on a key sector or important market leader, it can be a huge edge because the trader can leverage this information into many kinds of trading opportunities.

Gann’s techniques are so new to most of us that it is necessary to have an open mind as we approach them. For those practicing these methods for the first time, it will require practice and patience to learn to trust the pattern. Gann called the squaring the range with time method his most important discovery, and it is still as valuable today as it was in his era.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/wd-ganns-master-forecasting-methods/2012/11/22/