hmarkets模拟交易大赛

在1000美元交易黄金的三种方式

2016-01-04 15:33:05

 Alan Farley  2015年12月31日

黄金期货的价格在历史性上升区间后期的2011年八月达到极致的1911美元。价格在那之后出现急剧下滑,此后是一个温和但是持续性的下滑,丝毫没有停止的迹象。从2014年开始反向反弹逐渐减小,因为黄金和其他大宗商品投资者开始平仓而潜在买家则在等待更好的机会。
 
黄金现在处于这个恶性下降趋势的第五年中,已经慢慢接近1000美元。这个价格至关重要,有以下三个原因。
1.整数代表着该价格是投资者心里的自然支撑水平很可能引起新的购买兴趣。
2.1000是2008年开始到2009年中期这18个月的主要支持,最终引发大宗商品价格爆发式的增长。
3.这个水平基本符合2010和2011年上升趋势的50%斐波纳契回撤理论,这个点位把支撑隐藏在1000和1050之间。
 
跟踪一个新的黄金上升趋势
大整数可能标志着旧趋势的结束和新的大趋势的开始。虽然黄金短期可能不能回到2011年高点,从技术层面来说上升到1500以上还是有可能的,这为长期仓位提供可观的回报。关键的问题是有一个能充分利用这一价格水平的进入策略。
 
投资者和市场时机把握者有三种方法在黄金价格达到1000时进行投资。每一种策略都带有不同的回报和风险。事实上,这些策略在入场之前需要一个短暂的价格下降,这是最终新趋势开始的标志。
 
策略1:直接买入
图片1.png
市场参与者可以等待价格跌到1000并且迅速买入。这个策略入场简单但是风险巨大,特别是在价格迅速跌到这一水平是因为动量增加价格跌入更低水平的几率时。如果价格以一个平缓的模式跌入这一水平时这个策略携带的风险则很小。
 
在这两种情况下的风险控制都是通过降低交易规模和在975设置止损。价格在1000的第一个测试如果不在支撑水平而且不延长时间很难产生新的上升趋势。因此,当价格在入场点附近来回摆动时需要耐心等待。
 
策略2:在继续下跌的反弹后购买
在第二个策略中市场参与者在价格达到1000时不采取行动,等待新的低点的出现。这种技术故障通常引发一个下降趋势中最后的低点,之后会出现一个恢复到争议水平之上的波动。看涨行情结束标志一个新的上升趋势和买入点的出现。
 
这种情况控制风险的方法是观察期货和股票衍生品在975时的大量交易。与此同时,寻找金融媒体的大量利空消息。一旦出现这种情况,下一个价格上升到1000之上的反弹则意味主要趋势逆转的开始。
 
策略3:反弹后购买
最后一个策略的风险小但是潜在回报也小。等待价格达到1000并触发反弹,也就是击穿或者恢复到这数字之上的击穿。无论发生上面何种情况,蓝色趋势线上面的下一个反弹将是主要恢复。交易趋势线在2015年末穿过1200并且在接下来的几个月将接近1100.
 
在这策略中控制风险是在进行长期投资之前允许黄金在蓝色趋势线之上建立平稳模式。新支撑的翻转和成功测试将会增加可靠性,在这时增加持仓因为它预示着一个新的强劲上升的到来。在1500到1600之间设置利润目标和退出策略。
 
总结
黄金价格在2015年结束时在1000美元的附近100点之内并将在2016年测试这个心理水平。这个价格行为将可能为细心的投资者和市场时机把握者提供建立大量的长期多仓盈利策略的机会。
 
3 Ways to Play Gold at $1000
By Alan Farley | December 31, 2015 
 
Gold futures topped out at 1911 in August 2011, at the end of a historic uptrend. Price action since that time shows a steep decline, followed by a gentle but persistent downtrend that shows no signs of letting up. Countertrend rallies have gotten smaller since 2014 because gold bugs and other commodity bulls have given up and sold positions while potential buyers wait on the sidelines for a more favorable risk-reward tradeoff. 
 
The yellow metal, now in the fifth year of its virulent downtrend, is slowly nearing 1000. This is a critical price level for three reasons.
1.Round numbers mark psychological lines-in-the-sand that identifies natural support levels likely to attract fresh buying interest.
2.1000 marked major resistance for 18 months between the start of 2008 and the middle of 2009, eventually yielding the historic breakout that set the commodity on fire. 
3.The level roughly aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend between 2000 and 2011. This placement points to hidden support between 1000 and 1050.
 
Stalking A New Gold Uptrend
The big round number could mark the end of the downtrend and start of a significant uptrend. While gold may not return to the 2011 high in this decade, a rally above 1500 makes technical sense, offering high percentage gains for carefully timed long positions. The trick is to engage an entry strategy that utilizes this price level to its fullest advantage.
 
There are three ways that investors and market timers can play gold when it finally hits 1000. Each strategy carries unique reward and risk considerations that require active management to guard against a sustained breakdown, which is possible but not likely. In fact, one strategy requires a temporary breakdown before entry, with that event signaling a final capitalization.
 
Strategy 1: Buy The Level
Gold Futures 1996-2015
 
Market players can wait for gold to sell off into 1000 and buy it immediately. This strategy will offer the simplest entry with the greatest risk, especially if price descends quickly into that level because momentum increases odds for even lower prices before a major bounce or reversal. This approach carries less risk if gold drifts down to that level in a lazy pattern, printing lower than average volume on underlying derivatives. 
 
Control risk in both scenarios by lowering position size and placing sell stops under 975 or the ETF equivalent. It’s unlikely the first test at 1000 will generate a new uptrend without prolonged basing and testing at that support level. As a result, the strategy will require patience while price action swings back and forth in the vicinity of the chosen entry. 
 
Strategy 2: Buy the Failure of a Failure
Market players sit on their hands when gold tests 1000 in the second strategy, waiting for a breakdown that forces captivation of remaining bulls and new bottom fishers. This technical failure often triggers a final low in a downtrend, followed by a recovery wave that closes back above the contested level. That bullish close signals a new uptrend and long entry.
 
Control risk in this scenario by standing aside while watching for gold to trade as low as 975 on high volume in futures and equity derivatives. At the same time, look for a surge of bearish sentiment in the financial media, with headlines proclaiming the end of the yellow metal. Once these criteria are met, the next bounce that holds above 1000 marks a buy signal for a major trend reversal.
 
Strategy 3: Buy The Bounce
The last strategy offers lower risk but less reward potential. Wait for gold to hit 1000 for the first time and trigger a bounce, a breakdown, or a breakdown followed by a recovery above the magic number. Once any of these criteria are met, the next bounce above the blue trendline marks a buy signal for a major recovery. That trendline crossed through 1200 at the end of 2015 and will lie closer to 1100 in coming months.
 
Control risk in this strategy by allowing gold to build a basing pattern above the blue trendline before taking long exposure. A rollover and successful test at new support will add reliability to a position, calling for additional shares or contracts because it predicts a strong bull advance. 1500 to 1600 marks the profit target where exits should be taken aggressively. 
 
The Bottom Line
Gold ended 2015 within 100-points of 1000 and should test that psychological level in 2016. This magnetic price behavior may set up a number of profitable long side strategies for observant investors and market timers. 
 
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/123115/3-ways-play-gold-1000.asp
 
 
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