如何让你的外汇交易简单化——将E先生搁置起来!

2015-06-05 17:27:40


虽然我不认识你,但是我知道大部分的投资者都有一些复杂的交易习惯。大部分时候都是精神上的。
Edward Toppel在他的《市场中的禅》一书中写道“市场是一个简单的游戏。投资者不顾一切地投入从而让它变得非常复杂。这也是让我们难以获得胜利的原因。”


震荡,回调,波动,时间段,趋势线等等…有时,这会让市场复杂化。或许它就像Toppel说的一样的简单。
下面是一些我们都知道的市场规则:
• 低买高卖
• 留住盈利的单子,迅速平仓亏损单
• 增加盈利仓位
• 追随趋势交易
你成功了!毫无疑问的!容易理解!
然而,问题是,你不断地打破规则。
你没有跟随趋势,而是逆趋势做短线交易因为你觉得自己比市场了解得更多。通常,投资者认为他们知道何时获利平仓,从而过早地平掉盈利仓位。你呢?
你用以“我”开头的句子来描述你的错误及缺点是十分重要的。因为最终,外汇是一个零和游戏,你是在与自己做竞争。


市场并不具备人性。经纪商在平掉几乎没有盈利单子时也没有人性;因为他们只想平掉一笔糟糕的交易或者仓位,并尽可能快地用一笔好交易来替代它。
不,这是交易过程不可或缺的一部分——这是市场。因此…
你是交易的唯一责任人
Toppel开门见山地说道,一旦我们理解是在与自己竞争,那么罪犯就很容易锁定。他就是“大E先生”(ego,自我)。
因为“大E先生”阻拦我们进行正确地交易,它认为自己是正确的。它使我们丧失了正确交易的能力。交易心理学大师Mark Douglas这么说道,“你可以在不知道市场会发生什么的情况下盈利。”现在,这或许听起来很奇怪。事实上是,外汇交易只不过是一个概率选择。仅此而已。


如果你能用这些思维来考虑问题,我认为它可以帮助你再交易的方程式中移除“大E先生”。Douglas说,当你投掷一枚正面朝上的硬币,而背面朝上地落下时,你的“大E先生”不会受到打击,因为你知道这仅仅是一个概率问题。外汇交易也应该有同样的考虑方式。但是我明白,这说起来容易做起来难;
“大E先生”存在于你应该怎么做与你认为自己该如何操作之间。“所有人的自我都是有生命的。它比核弹的威力更大。”Toppel写道。同时他也谈论到如何改变自我,“无意识的景象”——不掺杂个人情感地看待事物,而不是从自我角度认为它们应该是怎样。


你有多少次提前预测经济事件,报告,但仍然在交易中亏损?
如果市场是有逻辑性的,那么我们就都会成为赢家!
这也就是为什么我尝试使用标准的亚里士多德的逻辑…
提出理由和论据,然后得出结论。但你需要记住的是你的结论代表了另外一种情况;尝试通过尽可能多的可能性建立一个有竞争力的场景。然后同时在你的脑中呈现两种不同的想法。


当然,你可能会喜欢其中的一种情况。但是,你最好不要恋上你所想象的任何一个故事。当你爱上自己的一个故事时,说明“大E先生”再次控制了你。让我们看看很多投资者爱上的各种想法:
• 黄金将上升至$2,000。黄金会降到 $300。
•油价将上涨到$200。油价会降至 $30。
• 美指会下降到40。美指会上升到125。
这些是基于逻辑的潜在可能性,但是…
“如果市场具有逻辑性,我们将会是赢家。”Toppel妙语。“所以,让我们放弃应用这种情况下设计出来的可以达到预期盈利的系统,因为这些系统的分析过滤掉了大量的数据。”
你应该放弃它,并只顾着扔飞镖吗?也许,如果这适合你。假设没有人在你的镖靶前走来走去是简单和毫无压力的。
但现实是,你能做的最好就是“保持现在的时刻”。你需要判定“现在时刻”是什么。这可能是五分钟,也可能是一周。
市场向导对Jack Schwager采访的一篇报道中说,一个交易者说他每天早晨醒来,他将自己的所有仓位都认为是新开设的。所有的仓位都应用风险/回报率因为这是新的一天——这就是“现在的时刻”。


“你的自我声音是噪音。不要倾听它的指挥,寻求那些值得跟随的市场专家的建议——市场。不要使它复杂化并使简单的真相变得模糊。忘记你的声音,倾听市场给你的发出的清晰的指令。相信自己的感觉,不要试图去领导市场。”Toppel补充道。


但仍然需要重申的是,说的比做的容易;但仍然有帮助你实现这个目标:
• 不要逆趋势交易。
• 不论趋势如何,你必须假设它将会持续。
• 当趋势反转的时候你会知道,因为价格会发生变化。
当然,你的交易时间框架越短,这个简单而有效的思考方法就会变得越难。但是如果你没有试图预测每个反转,那么你的外汇交易也能变得简单。
最好的祝愿,
杰克

 


How to Keep Your Currency Trading Simple — Put Mr. E on Ice!
Jack Crooks | Saturday, August 4, 2012 at 7:30 am

I don’t know about you, but investors often get tangled in trading ruts. And most of the time it’s all mental.
“The market is an easy game to play. It is just that we are hell-bent upon making it so complicated. That’s what makes it so difficult for us to win,” Edward Toppel writes, in his gem of a book, Zen in the Markets.
Oscillators, retracements, waves, time counts, trend lines, blah, blah, blah … into infinitum at times, making it harder than it is. Maybe it is just as simple as Toppel says.
Here are the rules; we all know them:
• Buy low, sell high.
• Let profits run, cut losses quickly.
• Add to a winning position, not a loser.
• Go with the trend.
Bingo! Unequivocal! Easy to understand!
The problem, however, is when you break the rules on a consistent basis.
Instead of going with the trend, do you look to make a short-term trade against the trend because you think you know more than the market? Often, investors believe they can tell when a profit should be taken and, thus, cut their winners short. How about you?
It is important that you describe your mistakes and weaknesses in the “I” term. Because in the end, even though currencies are a zero-sum game, you are in competition with yourself here.
The market does not personalize. Dealers don’t personalize if they “gun a stop” when trading is thin; after all, they just want to exit a bad trade, or position for a good one, as quickly as possible.
No, it is part-and-parcel to the process — it is the market. Therefore …
There Is Only One Person to Blame
Toppel cuts to the chase. Once we understand we are in competition with ourselves, the culprit is easy to spot. He refers to it as the “Big E,” for ego.
Because the Big E gets in the way and thinks it’s right, it robs us of the ability to do the right thing.
Trading psychology guru Mark Douglas put it this way, “You don’t have to know what’s going to happen in order to make money in the market.”
Now, that may sound odd to you. But the reality is that currency trading is nothing more than a probability bet. No more and no less.
If you can think of it in those terms, I think it helps remove the Big E from the equation. For as Douglas says, you don’t take an ego hit when you pick heads and then tails comes up on a coin flip. You know it is all about probabilities.
Currency trading should be considered the same. But, that is easier said than done; I know that too well.
Big E is wedged between how you should and how you do think of trading. “Really, ego has a life of its own within all of us. Its hold is more powerful than a plutonium bomb,” Toppel writes.
Toppel talks about how you can change Big E’s hold. He writes about the idea of “egoless sight” — seeing things for what they are and not for what your ego would like them to be.
How often have you nailed all the economic stuff in advance, predicted all the news, reports, etc. and still lost money on the trade?
If the Market Were Logical,
We’d All Be Winners!
This why I try to apply standard Aristotelian logic …
Come up with reasons and rationales; then draw a conclusion. But you should keep in mind that your conclusion represents an alternative scenario.
Always try to build an alternative competing scenario with as much plausibility as possible. And then hold both thoughts in your head at the same time.
Granted, one will be favored over the other. But, do your best not to fall in love with either side of your story.
When you do fall in love with your story, it proves Big E is once again taking control.
Let’s look at some of the ideas many investors have fallen in love with:
• Gold will rise to $2,000. Gold will fall to $300.
• Oil will rise to $200. Oil will fall to $30.
• The Dollar Index will fall to 40. The Dollar Index will rise to 125.
These were potential scenarios based on logic. But …
“If the market were logical, we’d all be winners,” Toppel quips. “So let’s give up applying a system of expected outcomes to that phenomenon that has eluded the best minds sifting through a multitude of data for their analyses.”
Should you give it all up and just throw darts? Maybe, if that works for you. It can be easier and stress-free, assuming no one wanders in front of your dartboard.
But the reality is, the best you can do is “stay in the now moment.” You have to define what a “now moment” is. It may be five minutes or it may be a week.
In one of the interviews in Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, a trader said that every day he wakes up, he considers any positions he has on as new positions. All new risk/reward criteria applies because it IS a new day — it is the now moment.
“The noise is your ego’s voice. Stop listening and turn to the only expert worth following — the market. Don’t make it difficult and obscure this simple truth. Forget your voice, and listen to the clear message and direct call given off by the market. Just feel, follow, and put full faith in your ability to blend with the leader, not attempt to lead the market,” adds Toppel.
Again, easier said than done; I realize. But there are ways to help you achieve this:
• Don’t trade against the trend.
• Whatever the trend is, you must assume it will continue.
• You will know when it reverses because prices will change.
Granted, the shorter-term your trading time frame, the more difficult this simple but powerful way to think becomes.
But if you avoid trying to predict every twist and turn, you can keep your currency trading simple.
Best wishes,
Jack


本文翻译由兄弟财经提供


文章来源:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/how-to-keep-your-currency-trading-simple-—-put-mr-e-on-ice-50185?replytocom=9350

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