交易的基础(二)

2014-11-28 15:19:10


4. 开仓、平仓信号


动能指标的讨论中列举了不同震荡指标的优点。你可以根据资金流动量指标(MFI)或MACD指标给出的信号开仓。事实上,一些分析师的入场点不依赖于任何指标,而是基于突破或者阻力位。根据交易的时间框架来设置所应用的指标。你需要权衡指标的响应性和可靠性:短的时间框架可以较早的给出交易信号,但是偶尔会出现错误。此时,追踪止损可以很好的弥补这一缺陷:它可以有效的过滤不成熟的或者虚假的交易信号;它的自动开仓、平仓功能可以减轻交易者的心理压力。


  示例1、嘉信理财公司股价以及7日、150日指数移动均线和7日相对强弱指数。

11.jpg
1. 有利的交易条件开始于10月23日,相对强弱指标短暂穿透零之后回升,29日产生了做多信号,这与趋势线相吻合。在[1]处上方挂一个止损买入订单。
2. 第二天价格高于第一天的高点,我们成功进场。并且,股价高于10月20日的高点,创出新高。


5. 止损


止损是当价格回落到特定价位被触发的指令(如果做空的话,当价格升高到某一价位止损即被触发)。如果使用得当,它有助于限制每一笔交易的损失。


(a).在成功下单之后,立刻在当日的最低价位下方一个点处设置止损。
(b).根据每一笔交易的保证金设置最大可承受止损。如果止损处的亏损超过所允许的最大值,不要下单。长线交易者在合理的分散风险之后,可以将损失设置为已占用保证金的6%,短线交易者可以设置为2%。
(c).根据支撑、阻力位,最高价和最低价以及别的技术分析设置止损。
(d).设置追踪止损锁定利润。此外,密切关注那些可能意味着反转形态的图表。不是说要注意每一个小的反转形态,而是要根据伴随着不寻常的高交易量的大反转形态(比如头肩形态)适当的调整止损。如果不能确认,可以只调整部分仓位的止损。


示例2:嘉信理财公司股票与150指数移动均线(玫红色曲线)。黄色横线表示随时间不断调整的止损。
22.jpg 
1. 10月30日在 [1] 处开始交易,并在A处下方设置止损。
2. 价格走势形成了较高的低谷。根据B处的低点调整止损。
3. C处更高的低点形成,继续向上调整止损。
根据每一轮的次级低谷调整止损位置。每一次新的止损都表示一轮趋势线的重新开始。有时很难区分短期价格与次级价格走势——周线图可以用来忽略小幅价格波动。


示例3、嘉信理财股票与150日指数移动均线(玫红色)和20日平均成交量线(蓝色)。
 33.jpg
1. 开仓做多。
2. 在持续了几个月的上升趋势之后,K处成交量突然升高。要注意K处的缺口。接下来股价开始较大波动范围的关键反转。缺口和高成交量足够说明止损应该上移到缺口前一天的低点处。当缺口在第二天回补之后止损被触发。
3. 价格走势在之后可以很容易的被识别出来。但是在价格图形成的过程中,比如说极端的K处以及平常的R处,很难识别。
4. 如果交易者根据K处的信号获利(比如平掉50%仓位),并根据接下来的价格走势不断的调整止损位置。价格最终会在X处突破止损。


6. 平仓信号


利用趋势指标离场。根据交易周期调整指标的时间框架。


示例3、嘉信理财公司股票的周线图以及7日(玫红色)、150日(蓝色)指数移动平均线图。
44.jpg 
1. 1998年10月30日在 [L] 处以$10.13 价位开仓做多。
2. 1999年4月15日在关键反转 [K] 处以 $44.75 价位部分平仓。
3. 剩下的仓位在1999年5月25日在[X] 处 以 $33.13价位平仓。
4. 价格于1999年6月14日在[Y] 处$27.25下穿150日指数移动平均线。
5. 7日指数移动平均线在1999年8月4日,$24.50价位向下穿透150日指数移动平均线。
如果止损没有被触发,根据平仓策略,仓位有可能在以下位置平仓:
• 在 [Y]处,当价格向下穿透150日指数移动平均线;
• 在 [Z] 处,当7日指数移动平均线向下穿透150日指数移动平均线。


交易总结
 55.jpg
盈利在440% 到 240%之间。由此可知,平仓位置十分重要。


4. Entry & Exit Signals
(a) Entry Signals
The merits of the different oscillators are discussed at Momentum Indicators. It is also possible to use an oscillator such as the Money Flow Index or MACD to time your entry points. In fact, some analysts do not use indicators at all and base their entry points on breakouts above resistance levels.
Set the Indicator Time Frame to suit the cycle being traded. There is a trade-off between indicator responsiveness and reliability: a very short time frame may provide earlier, but occasionally incorrect, signals. Trailing stops help to compensate for this.
(b) Trailing Stops
Trailing Stops are useful for weeding out premature or false signals and help to alleviate some of thepsychological pressure on traders - by providing automatic entry and exit points.
 
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab with   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages and   7-day relative strength index.
3. Favorable trading conditions (from Steps 2 & 3) commence on October 23rd. Shortly thereafter the RSI crosses to below zero and turns back above the zero line, giving a signal to go long [Oct 29]. The signal is strengthened by a failure swing, shown by the trendline.
Place a buy stop order above the High on the signal day [1].
4. We are stopped in on day [2] when price rises above the High of the previous day. By the close the stock had formed a new High, surpassing the High of October 20th.
5. Stop Losses
A Stop-Loss is an order which is only placed in the market if price falls to a specified level (if short, the stop is activated if price rises to a specified level). If used correctly, they help to limit the losses on individual trades.
Further details can be found at the links provided.
(a) Stop Losses
Stop-losses should be set as soon as each trade is confirmed. Set the stop-loss one tick below the lowest Low since the signal day.
(b) Maximum Acceptable Loss
Set your Maximum Acceptable Loss on any one trade, as a percentage of the capital committed. Never enter a trade if the stop-loss will exceed this limit.
A long-term investor/trader with reasonable risk diversification may set a limit of 6% while a short-term trader may set a limit of 2%.
(c) Setting Stop Levels
Be technically consistent when Setting Stop Levels. Use support and resistance, highs and lows or other technical levels for your limits.
(d) Adjusting Stop Levels
Using technical levels as in (c), Adjust Stops, over time, in the direction of the trend. This helps to protect your profits without fear of being stopped out before the trend is broken. A long-term investor/trader with reasonable risk diversification may find 6% an acceptable limit. A short-term trader may set a limit of only 2%.
Apart from adjusting stop levels upwards to below successive troughs, the alert trader should watch for chart patterns that may signal significant turning points. This doesn't mean that stops should be adjusted for every minor reversal signal but it is advisable to adjust stops for very strong signals, such as head and shoulders, when confirmed by unusually high volume. When in doubt, take profits by adjusting the stop for only part of your position.
EXAMPLE 1
Charles Schwab with   150-day exponential moving average. The trendlines   depict the stop levels as they are adjusted over time.
4. The trade is entered on October 30th, day [1]. As soon as the trade is confirmed, set the stop-loss at just below the Low of the signal day [A].
5. Price has formed a higher trough. Adjust the stop loss to just below the Low of [B].
6. A higher trough is formed. Move the stop loss to below the Low of [C].
Adjust the stop upwards to below each successive low of the secondary cycle. Each new stop level is indicated by the start (left) of a new trendline. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the short cycle and the secondary cycle - weekly charts can be used to eliminate minor fluctuations.
 
EXAMPLE 2
Charles Schwab with   150-day exponential moving average and   20-day volume moving average.
5. Entry day.
6. Unusually high volumes at the end of a strong up-trend lasting several months, alert us to the exhaustion gap in April '99. The following day is a key reversal [K] with a very wide range.
The combination is sufficiently extreme to justify moving the stops up to the High of the day prior to the gap. The position is stopped out when the gap is closed on the day following the key reversal [K].
7. Patterns are easy to detect with hindsight - it is difficult at the time to distinguish between extreme signals such as [K] and more regular signals such as [R].
8. If the [K] signal was used to take profits (say sell off 50% of the position) then the trader would continue to adjust stops upwards. Price breaks below the stop level at [X] and the remaining position is stopped out.
6. Exit Signals
Trade Indicators
Use a Trend Indicator to exit from the trend. Adjust the Indicator Time Frame to suit the cycle being traded.
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab with weekly price bars and   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages.
6. Entry [L] on 30 October 1998 at $10.13.
7. Exit on Key Reversal at [K] on 15 April 1999 at $44.75.
8. Remaining position stopped out at [X] on 25 May 1999 at $33.13.
9. Price crosses below MA150 at [Y] on 14 June 1999 at $27.25.
10. MA7 crosses below MA150 at [Z] on 4 August 1999 at $24.50.
If no stops had been activated, the position would have been closed either:
• At [Y] when price fell below the 150-day moving average; or
• At [Z] when the 7-day MA fell below the 150-day MA,
depending on the exit strategy.
 
Trade Summary
Entry [L] October 30, 1998 $10.13
Key Reversal [K] April 15, 1999 $44.75
Stopped Out [X] May 25, 1999 $33.13
Price crosses below MA150 [Y] June 14, 1999 $27.25
MA7 crosses below MA150 [Z] August 4, 1999 $24.50
Returns vary between 440 per cent and 240 per cent.
Note how important it is to exit at the right time in addition to timing the entry : the correction retreated to below


本文翻译由兄弟财经提供


文章来源:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/entry_signals.php

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