IntroductionVIII

　　Chapter VII points out that as wages rise rapidly in dynamically growing

　　emerging market economies, such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia

　　and others, in the multipolar growth world of the 21st century, the laborintensive

　　industries in those emerging market economies will be losing

　　comparative advantages and provide golden opportunities for other lowincome

　　countries to enter. China alone currently has 85 million manufacturing

　　jobs in labor-intensive industries. If low-income countries in Africa

　　and other parts of the world are able to seize these jobs, they will be able

　　to grow dynamically, reduce poverty, and improve living standards quickly.

　　Lower-income countries should therefore turn their late-comer status to

　　their advantage by identifying mature industries in carefully selected lead

　　countries and facilitating the entry of their own private enterprises or foreign

　　direct investments from the comparator countries into those industries.

　　This chapter also summarizes key policy messages and provides concluding

　　thoughts.

　　As stated in the annual UNU-WIDER Lecture that I delivered in Maputo

　　on May 4, 2011, I believe that every developing country, including those in

　　Sub-Saharan Africa, can grow at 8 percent or more continuously for several

　　decades, signifi cantly reducing poverty and becoming middle- or even highincome

　　countries in the span of one or two generations, if its government

　　has the right policy framework to facilitate the private sector’s development

　　along the line of its comparative advantages and tap into the late-comer

　　advantages (Lin 2011). I hope that the publication of this book will make a

　　contribution toward the realization of that goal in the developing world.

　　References

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　　Lal, Deepak. 1983. “The Poverty of ‘Development Economics.’” Institute of

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　　Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011. “From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons: New Opportunities

　　and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries.”

　　WIDER Annual Lecture 15, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. (A shorter version of this

　　paper is forthcoming in Global Policy.)

　　Maddison, Angus. 1982. Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford, UK: Oxford

　　University Press.

　　———. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy, 1820–1992. Paris: OECD.

　　McMillan, Margaret, and Dani Rodrik. 2011. “Globalization, Structural

　　Change and Productivity Growth,” Kennedy School of Government, Harvard

　　University, Cambridge, MA., http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/

　　Research%20papers/Globalization,%20Structural%20Change,%20and%20

　　Productivity%20Growth.pdf.

　　Pritchett, Lant. 1997. “Divergence, Big Time.” Journal of Economic Perspectives

　　11 (3): 3–17.

　　Reddy, Sanjay, and Camelia Minoiu. 2009. “Real Income Stagnation of Countries

　　1960–2001.” Journal of Development Studies 45 (1): 1–23.

　　Spence, M. 2011. The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a

　　Multispeed World. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

　　World Bank. 2011. Global Development Horizons—Multipolarity: The New

　　Global Economy. Washington, DC: World Bank.

本文摘自《新结构经济学》

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　　 Economic development is a process of continuous technological innovation and structural transformation. Development thinking is inherently tied to the quest for sustainable growth strategies. This book provides a neoclassical approach for studying the determinants of economic structure and its transformation and draws new insights for development policy. The market is the basic mechanism for effective resource allocation at each level of development. However, economic development as a dynamic process entails structural changes, including industrial upgrading and diversification and corresponding improvements in hard and soft infrastructure. Such upgrading and improvements require coordination and go hand in hand with large externalities to firms transaction costs and returns to capital investment. Thus, in addition to an effective market mechanism, the government should play an active role in facilitating structural changes. The book provides empirical evidence in support of this framework as well as concrete advice to development practitioners.