中国自2015年8月以来对人民币进行不断的贬值。由于中国在全球经济中扮演着重要角色，其意外的举动对世界各地带来了严重后果。

 

人民币贬值的原因

发达国家花费了很长时间才解除2008年全球经济危机的影响，他们的经济复苏很慢。由于这些国家是中国出口的主要市场，缓慢的经济复苏导致中国产量的下降，使就业率和收入降低。因此，中国决定从制造业为主的出口导向型经济转变为一个国内消费和服务板块经济。

 

然而，这一转变需要花费很长时间达成和出现成果，中国对出口的依赖亦然显著。通过人民币贬值，中国使其出口商品在国际市场更具竞争优势。货币疲软也使中国的进口成本增加，因此促进国内生产代替品以帮助国内产业。

 

对国际贸易市场的影响

货币贬值并不是一件新鲜事。从欧美发达国家到像印度这样的发展中国家，都进行过货币贬值以缓解他们的经济压力。也就是说，中国的货币贬值可能给全球经济带来麻烦。由于中国是世界上最大出口国和第二大经济体，它的任何变化都会对宏观格局造成严重影响。

 

随着中国商品的越来越便宜，许多中小出口驱动经济体会发现他们的收入减少。如果这些国家债务缠身并严重依赖出口，他们的经济可能受到打击。例如，越南、孟加拉国和印度尼西亚极度依赖鞋类和纺织品的出口。中国货币贬值使产品在国际市场价格降低可能给他们带来很大的麻烦。

 

对全球经济的影响

为了使人民币成为国际货币，中国已经对其货币系统自由化。例如，人民币从以前的对美元的依赖转变到对其贸易伙伴货币的加权篮子。

 

2015年12月，中国人民币成功成为国际货币基金组织特别提款权篮子的第五个货币，将会在2016年10月生效。除了一般使用美元和黄金作为储备，特别提款权也是储备资产，因此国际货币基金组织成员可以在外汇市场使用本国货币以维持汇率。

 

人民币所占的比重为10.92%，高于英镑和日元的8.09%和8.33%。随着人民币成为国际储备货币，其贬值将会对包括国家和大型机构在内的持有者造成重大影响。从国际货币基金组织借款的利率取决于特别提款权货币的利率，现在包括人民币。由于汇率和利率之间的互相关联，国际货币基金组织188个成员国的借款成本将部分取决于人民币的利率和汇率。

 

津巴布韦最近将人民币添加到其合法货币列表，其中已经包括美元和南非兰特。虽然这一举动归因于中国免除了津巴布韦400亿美元债务的政治原因，但是还是反映出人民币在全球范围内影响的增加。

 

发展与挑战

所有的经济大国都将货币转变成了国际货币。现在人民币有离岸人民币和在岸人民币两个版本，中国的下一个目标是保持他们的利率接近。

 

人民币的交易反映出其在国际的使用大幅增加。人民币现在适应在任何大型国家交易，甚至是在世界银行和国际货币基金这样的组织。人民币将很快成为一个自由使用的货币，从而导致更多的国际交易，使其能与美元竞争。

 

正如之前提到的，中国的出口下降和其向消费主导经济转变的努力导致了最近的人民币贬值。这些举措似乎有一个明确的动机。例如，2015年8月的人民币贬值伴随着“人民币汇率中间价将会向前一天收盘的即期汇率看齐”的宣布，这样做的目的是“使市场在决定人民币汇率中起到更大作用，使人民币进行更深层次的改革。”

 

中国向国内消费主导经济过度可能遇到一些挑战。尽管人民币的使用正在增加，达到了国际货币基金组织特比提款权的标准，人民币在全球货币交易中的份额仍然很低。尽管中国已经做出重大的可见举措开放其金融市场，这一过程需要很长时间才能完成。

 

总结

在短期内，中国决策制定者不得不应对汇率系统改革，保持离岸人民币和在岸人民币汇率持平，并证明在经济增长放缓中货币管理的有效性。

 

在长期来说，中国的经济规模使人民币成为自由市场国际储备货币的合格候选。随着中国进入国际舞台的中心，它需要平衡国内重点和国际责任。到那时，它可能继续影响国际金融市场并且对后续影响做好准备。

 

Chinese Currency Devaluation Hits Global Economy 

By Shobhit Seth | January 25, 2016 

 

China has been devaluating its currency on occasion since August 2015. Given its greater role in the global economy, China's surprise moves are having serious repercussions around the world. 

 

Reasons For Yuan Devaluation

Developed economies took a long time to absorb the aftershocks of the global financial crisis of 2008, with their recoveries being slow.Because these economies were major markets for Chinese exports, their sluggish recoveries led to declining production, reduced employment and falling incomes in China. In response, China decided to shift from being a manufacturing-based, export-driven economy to one built more on domestic consumption and a growing service sector.

 

However, such paradigm changes will take a long time to materialize and show results, and China still significantly depends on its exports. By devaluating its currency, China makes exports cheaper and gains a competitive advantage in the international markets. A weaker currency also makes China's imports costlier, thus spurring production of substitute products at home and so aiding domestic industry.

 

Impact On Global Trade Market

Currency devaluation is nothing new. From the U.S. and the European Union to developing nations like India, countries have devaluated their respective currencies to help cushion their economies. That said, China's devaluations could spell trouble for the global economy. Given that China is the world’s largest exporter and its second-largest economy, any change that such a large entity makes to the macroeconomic landscape will have serious repercussions.

 

With Chinese goods becoming cheaper, many small- to medium-sized export-driven economies may see their trade revenues reduced. And if these nations are debt-ridden and have a heavy dependence on exports, their economies could take a beating. For instance, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia greatly rely on their exports of footwear and textiles. They could be in serious trouble should China's devaluations make its goods cheaper in the global marketplace.

 

Impact On Global Economy

In a bid to establish the yuan as an international currency, China has been liberalizing its currency system. For instance, it moved from its former dependence on the U.S. dollar to a weighted basket of different currencies belonging to its trading partner economies.

 

In December 2015, China succeeded in getting the renminbi included as the fifth currency in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, which will be effective from October 2016. Along with generally adopted reserves of U.S. dollars and gold, SDR is an additional international reserve asset that IMF members can use to purchase domestic currency in foreign exchange markets in order to maintain exchange rates. 

 

The Chinese renminbi has a weight of 10.92%, which is more than the weights of the Japanese yen (JPY) and U.K. pounds sterling (GBP), at 8.33% and 8.09%, respectively. With the renminbi recognized as an international reserve currency, its valuations could have major effects on holders, including nations and large organizations. The rate of borrowing funds from the IMF depends on the interest rate of the SDR, which will now include a Chinese instrument. As currency rates and interest rates are interlinked, the cost of borrowing from the IMF for its 188 member nations will in part hinge on China's interest and currency rates.

 

Zimbabwe recently added the Chinese yuan (CNY) to its legally approved currency list, which already included U.S. dollars (USD) and the South African rand (ZAR). Though this move was politically attributed to China canceling Zimbabwe’s $40 million debt, such developments indicate the growing influence of China at the global level.

 

Developments and Challenges

All present-day economic powerhouses have moved their currencies from domestic to international. With two versions of Chinese currencies already existing, the onshore (CNY) and the offshore (CNH), the next aim for Chinese authorities will be to keep their rates close.

 

Trading activity in renminbi has shown a significant rise in usage at the international level. It can now accommodate any large-value international transactions occurring even at the levels of organizations like the World Bank and the IMF. The ongoing integration of the Chinese currency should soon make it a freely usable currency, leading to more international transactions and making it competitive with the U.S. Dollar.

 

As mentioned earlier, China's falling exports and its efforts to move to a consumption-based economy has led it to devaluate its currency recently. The moves in some cases seemed driven by a clear motive. For instance, the surprise renminbi devaluation in August 2015 was accompanied by the announcement that the “yuan's central parity rate will align more closely with the previous day's closing spot rates," which was aimed at “giving markets a greater role in determining the renminbi exchange rate, with the goal of enabling deeper currency reform."

 

China's transition to a domestic-consumption based economy could encounter some challenges. Despite the increasing international usage of CNY, which is meeting set standards for inclusion in the IMF SDR, the renminbi’s share in world currency trade remains lower. Though China has made significant, visible moves to open up its financial system (like removing the U.S. dollar peg), the process will take time to complete. 

 

The Bottom Line

In the short term, Chinese policymakers will have to deal with reforming their exchange rate system, bringing its onshore and offshore currency rates to par, and demonstrating effectiveness in managing currency valuations (or devaluations) amid its ongoing economic slump.

 

In the longer run, the size of the Chinese economy makes it an eligible candidate for having a free market global reserve currency. As China takes center stage at a global level, it needs to balance its domestic priorities and global responsibilities. Until then, it will likely keep sending ripples across global financial systems, and rival economies should brace themselves for the after-effects. 

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012516/chinese-currency-devaluation-hits-global-economy.asp