美元走强 石油库存增加 油价下跌

亚洲时间周四早间，美元走高，美国原油库存突然增加，引发了原油的抛售，油价因此下跌。

纽约商品交易所，六月交付的轻质低硫原油期货下跌了1.2%，跌至每桶47.63美元。伦敦 ICE 期货交易所，七月交付的布伦特原油下跌了1.4%，跌至每桶48.2美元。

不久前非洲和加拿大出现石油供应中断，拉丁美洲的制造商陷入了经济困境，美国石油产量也略有下降，供应过剩的情况因此有所缓解，油价便开始飞速上涨。

周三下午，布伦特原油即将冲破50美元的大关，是这自去年十一月以来从未出现过的情况。但随后美联储发布了四月会议记录，表明美联储很可能在下个月提高利率，美元因此飞涨，油价的走势也因此转涨为跌。华尔街美元指数下跌了0.01%。

对于国外买家来说，美元走强使得以美元计价的石油更加昂贵。

油价下跌的另一原因是那些见利抛售者，他们目睹了原油上涨到六个月以来的最高点，于是纷纷平仓盈利。

最近几周，持续不熄的加拿大野火以及尼日利亚和利比亚地区的石油供应中断将每日的石油产量拉低了100万桶。委内瑞拉的财政危机影响了该国的石油产业。

澳新银行高级商品战略家 Daniel Hynes 说道：“油价没有突破50美元意味着市场中的石油足以抵消供应中断的影响。这些问题悬而未决，供应过剩的危机仍会给油价施加压力。

此外，一些分析家认为实际油价仍低于生产成本，当前的价格水平无法保证市场平衡。”

伯恩斯坦的一份调查报告显示，非石油输出国组织的边际成本减少了30%，2015年为每桶73美元，而布伦特原油为52美元，减少了47%。

伯恩斯坦高级分析师 Neil Beveridge 表示：“油价的跌速远高于制造成本，因为石油行业的利润空间已微乎其微。这种情况是很难长久的。若想市场恢复平衡状态，油价至少要达到每桶60-70美元。”

纽约商品交易所，六月交付的新配方汽油合约下跌了189个点，现跌至每加仑1.6300美元，而六月交付的柴油则下跌了185个点，现跌至1.4646美元。

ICE 六月交付的汽油的成交价为每吨464.25美元，较周三下跌了9.5美元。

Oil prices drop on dollar strength, rising inventories

Crude oil prices headed lower in early Asian trade Thursday as a stronger dollar and the unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories triggered selling.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, -1.25%  traded at $47.63 a barrel, down $0.57, or 1.2%, in the Globex electronic session. July Brent LCON6, -1.59%  crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.74, or 1.4%, to $48.20 a barrel.

Oil prices had surged in recent sessions as outages in Africa and Canada, economic woes among Latin American producers, and production declines in the U.S. propelled expectations of a smaller glut.

Even as late as Wednesday afternoon, Brent, the global benchmark, was lumbering steadily towards $50 a barrel, a level unseen since November. But oil futures reversed direction after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting indicated that the central bank could raise U.S. interest rates as early as next month, causing the dollar to jump. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index BUXX, +0.05% which tracks the dollar against 16 other currencies, was last down 0.01%.

A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-traded oil more expensive for foreign buyers.

Another factor suppressing prices could be profit-taking after prices rose to six-month high earlier in the week.

“The market may be sufficiently overbought to peak at any time here, but we may see at least a few sessions of consolidation at a high level to help define a top rather than a more abrupt A-shaped market turn,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures.

In recent weeks, the ongoing wildfires in Canada and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Libya have taken at least 1 million barrels of oil offline each day. Fiscal distress in Venezuela is also posing challenges for its oil operations.

“The fact that oil hasn’t pushed through $50 a barrel suggests the market is discounting the impact of the disruptions. As these issues linger, we expect an increasing supply risk premium will price into the market,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist with ANZ.

Moreover, some analysts said with oil prices still below production cost, the current price level is still not economical enough to spark a rebalance in the market.

A Bernstein research report estimates global marginal cost for non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 30% to $73 a barrel in 2015, less than the fall in Brent of 47% to $52 a barrel.

 “With oil prices falling more rapidly than costs, industry margins have been wiped out and the industry is free cash flow negative. This is not sustainable,” said Neil Beveridge, senior analyst at Bernstein, adding that global oil market is unlikely to see a rebalance until prices edge up to at least $60-$70 a barrel.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for June RBM6, -1.27%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 189 points to $1.6300 a gallon, while June diesel traded at $1.4646, 185 points lower.

ICE gasoil for June changed hands at $434.25 a metric ton, down $9.50 from Wednesday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-drop-on-dollar-strength-rising-inventories-2016-05-19