理解外汇市场基本分析原理

2017-01-09 18:36:38

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交易者接触金融市场的方法主要有两个:技术分析或基础分析。但有很多成功的交易者同时采用了两种分析方法。

事实上,在杰克·施瓦格的畅销经典《金融怪杰》中有两名受访交易者,艾德·塞科塔和吉姆·罗格。罗格坚信自己无法以技术交易员的身份生存。时至今日,他仍然没有成为一个富有的技术人。塞科塔的故事却是完全相反的。他在做基本分析师时苦苦挣扎,直到做了技术分析才逐渐稳定下来。

前文提到,成功的交易者会同时进行技术分析和基本分析。本文将分解外汇市场的基本分析原则。

基本分析的定义是,通过分析一系列经济数据和金融数据来评估某个特定金融产品的内在价值。外汇市场中的金融产品指的便是货币。市场参与者不断地分析新兴国家的基本情况,以判断该国货币的内在价值。在最基本的层面上应了解几个关键的经济指标。这些关键指标的波动会导致货币价值的上涨或下跌。

利率

这是最主要的长期货币价值驱动因素。大多数央行每月会公布一次利率,市场参与者会密切关注利率的变化。央行控制利率从而对经济体的货币供给进行调控。如果央行想要增加货币供给,就会降低利率,反之亦然。

国内生产总值 (GDP)

GDP是判断一个国家经济健康与否最重要的指标。各国央行每年都会对经济前景进行预测,GDP决定了国家的增长速度。如果GDP低于市场预期,货币价值就会下跌,如果GDP超过市场预期,货币价值就会上升。

通货膨胀

通货膨胀会损害到货币的实际购买力,因此在大多数情况下,通货膨胀是对经济有害的。正常的年化通胀预期为2%-3%,如果通胀水平超过央行设置的上行目标,货币价值反而会因为突然的加息而增加。提高利率对通货膨胀有抑制作用。

失业

在推动经济增长的因素中,我们不得不谈到人以及消费者需求,失业率会影响经济增长。失业率增加会对经济增长带来极大的打击,因此,当劳动力市场中的失业率增加时,央行会降低利率以增加货币的供给并刺激经济增长。

消费需求

人是驱动经济增长的主要原因,因此健康的消费者需求是经济正常、健康运作的基础。当消费者对产品和服务有需求时,经济会增长,反之同理。

即使你是一个技术交易者,了解这些基本分析的重要知识也是很有帮助的。

Understanding the Basics of Fundamental Analysis in the Forex Market

Traders typically approach financial markets in one of two ways: either through technical analysis or fundamental analysis. The reality is that history is full of traders who have had very successful careers as traders that employed both of these types of analyses.

In fact, in Jack Schwager's best-selling classic, Market Wizards, two of the traders interviewed are Ed Seykota and Jim Rogers. Rogers is quite adamant in his statement that he believes it is impossible to make a living as a technical trader. He goes so far as to say he has never met a rich technician. Seykota actually shares the exact opposite story. According to Seykota's own interview, he was a struggling trader when he traded according to fundamental analysis. It was not until he became a technician that he started to make a living trading financial markets.

As stated, successful traders throughout history have employed both technical and fundamental analysis. In this article we are going to break down the basic principles of fundamental analysis in the forex market.

Fundamental Analysis is commonly defined as a method of evaluating a specific security in order to determine its intrinsic value by analyzing a host of economic and financial data. In the foreign-exchange market, a security would be a currency. Market participants are continually analyzing the emerging fundamental from a country in order to determine the intrinsic value of the country's currency. There are several key economic indicators that every trader should understand on a basic level. Fluctuations in the data of these key indicators will generally cause the value of a currency to rise and fall.

Interest Rates

These are the single greatest driver of currency value over the long-term. Most Central Banks announce interest rates each month, and these decisions are watched very scrupulously by market participants. Interest rates are manipulated by Central Banks in order to control the money supply in an economy. If a Central Bank wants to increase the money supply, it lowers interest rates, and if it wants to decrease money supply it raises interest rates.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is the most important indicator of economic health in a country. A country's Central Bank has expected growth outlooks each year that determine how fast a country should grow as measured by GDP. When GDP falls below market expectations, currency values tend to fall and when GDP beats market expectations, currency values tend to rise.

Inflation

Inflation destroys the real purchasing power of a currency, and, therefore, inflation is very bad for the economy in most circumstances. Each year a normal rate of inflation between 2-3% is expected, but if inflation begins moving beyond the upward targets set by the Central Bank, a currency value will actually rise due to expectation of an imminent rate hike. Higher interest rates tend to fight off inflation.

Unemployment

We will discuss consumer demand in a moment, but people are basically what drive economic growth; therefore, unemployment is the backbone of economic growth. When unemployment levels increase, it has a devastating effect on economic growth; consequently, when the labor market contracts and unemployment increases, interest rates are often cut in an attempt to increase the money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth.

Consumer Demand

As stated in the previous point, people are what drive economic growth; as a result, healthy consumer demand is essential to the normal, healthy functioning of an economy. When consumers are demanding goods and services, the economy tends to move forward, but when consumers are not demanding goods and services, the economy falters.

Even if you are a technical trader, it can still be very helpful to understand these basic elements of fundamental analysis.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.actionforex.com/articles-library/forex-articles/understanding-the-basics-of-fundamental-analysis-in-the-forex-market-20101119127128/
 

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