黄金价格上涨的背后推动因素

在几年的下跌之后，黄金在今年截止到4月25日已经上涨了17%，使其成为今年最好的投资商品之一。也许更值得注意的是，根据彭博社的数据显示黄金矿业股票在相同时间内上涨了78%。 

黄金的上涨能持续吗？

首先让我们来看一下黄金上涨的催化剂。全球经济增长放缓的预期、美联储的温和态度和美元疲软是当前黄金价格上涨的主要动力。

根据彭博社的数据，在年初美国西部轻质原油价格跌到13年低点时迫使其他大宗商品价格也跟着下跌。然而黄金却在当时展现出回弹性，恢复了其在动荡时期作为“避风港”的作用。

什么在推动黄金价格上涨

与此同时，黄金却在央行政策和真实利率中受益。根据彭博社的数据，黄金通常在真实利率低于零的环境中受益。我们在当前的日本和欧洲许多地方的负利率环境中看到了许多鲜明的例子。

当利率上涨，由于不会产生利润或者支付费用，黄金投资者需要面对一个机会成本。然而在负利率环境中，投资者在存款时需要支付利息。与其花费这部分资金，许多投资者行选择投资例如黄金的传统潜在价值。

因此，虽然确实存在全球经济和政治不确定性，通货膨胀和美元疲软也确实使金价受益，但是今年黄金价格上涨的主要影响因素还是央行政策和真实利率。值得注意的是，日本央行和欧洲央行都已经表示在近期仍将持续宽松政策，而美联储政策没有发生变化。

简而言之，由于对全球经济增长放缓、油价的不稳定性、英国退欧、美国大选担忧的增加，我们认为持有黄金仍然将是资产多元化配置的一个良好方法。

你有投资黄金和黄金开采企业吗？

对于黄金开采企业，需要强调的是投资实物黄金和购买黄金开仓公司股票的不同。与为持有实物黄金的投资者提供信托的黄金ETF不同，黄金开采企业ETF追踪那些开采公司的股票。

尽管相关度非常高，黄金开采企业从资产配置角度来说并不能很好的代替实物黄金。作为一种大宗商品，黄金能使投资组合多元化，因为它能降低股票市场的相关性，并且它还是一个很好的通胀对冲工具。另一方面，黄金开采企业本质上是一个影响黄金价格的杠杆，它通常会放大黄金价格的上涨或者下跌。

摩根士利丹全球黄金开采企业指数在今年令人难以置信的上涨了76%，但是这主要是由于估值恢复。根据彭博社的数据，黄金开采企业股票在去年遭到重创，该指数从2015年的最高点下跌了45%。现在这些股票没那么有吸引力了。与此同时，历史经验告诉我们真实利率很难对股票回报产生影响。

然而，我们相信未来黄金和黄金开采企业股票的表现将受到美联储政策的影响。如果美联储在下几次会议中态度强硬并加息，黄金和黄金开仓企业的股票将会很可能会表现不佳，因为投资者将转向收益率更高的资产。然而，如果真实利率维持在低水平，黄金作为股票市场稳定器的储存价值将维持其吸引力。

The Surprising Force Behind Gold’s Rally

By Blackrock Author | May 12, 2016

After a few years of losses, gold prices have risen 17% year-to-date as of April 25, making it one of the best-performing investments this year. Perhaps more remarkably, gold mining stocks are up nearly 78% during the same period, according to Bloomberg data.

The question now is: can the rally continue?

To begin, let’s take a look at the catalysts for the rally. Market expectations of slower global growth, a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) and weakness in the U.S. dollar have been some of the major drivers behind the current rally.

Earlier in the year, when WTI oil prices dropped to a 13-year low, according to Bloomberg data, it dragged many other commodities with it. Gold, however, showed resiliency, and regained its status as a “safe haven” asset in turbulent times.

What is pushing gold higher

At the same time, gold has benefited from central bank policies and the level of real interest rates (in other words, the interest rate after inflation.) According to Bloomberg data, gold has typically performed best in environments in which real interest rates were low to negative (see the chart below). We are seeing stark examples of this with the current environment of negative interest rates in Japan and many parts of Europe.

When rates are rising, there is an opportunity cost for investors of gold since it doesn’t produce an income stream or pay a dividend. However in a negative rate environment, investors are paying money to issuers to “hold” their money. Rather than pay for that privilege, many investors opt for traditional stores of potential value like gold. 

Thus, while it is true that global economic or political uncertainty, rising inflation and a weak dollar benefit gold prices, the most compelling argument for gold this year may center on central bank policy and the level of real interest rates. Notably, both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) have made it clear they will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future, and the Fed remains on hold. 

In short, given the increased concerns of global growth slowing, oil price instability, the potential Brexit, and U.S. election, we think owning gold as part of a diversified asset allocation continues to be a sound approach. 

Are you investing in gold or gold miners?

With respect to the gold miners, it is important to highlight the differences in investing in the physical commodity of gold versus buying stock in the companies mining the gold. Unlike gold ETFs that give investors exposure to trusts which hold physical gold, gold miner ETFs track the equity shares of companies that extract the precious metal from the earth. 

Despite being highly correlated, gold miners are not a good substitute for physical gold from an asset allocation perspective. As a commodity, gold is diversifying to a portfolio, because it offers lower correlation to the equity market, and is a better inflation hedge. On the other hand, gold miners are essentially a leveraged play on gold prices and they have tended to magnify strength or weakness in gold prices. 

The MSCI Global Gold Miners Index has rallied an incredible 76% this year, but much of the performance is due to the recovery in valuations: According to Bloomberg data, gold miner stocks were battered last year, with the index down 45% from its 2015 high. Now the stocks are not as attractive. At the same time, real rates have historically had little to no impact on equity returns.

However, we believe the future performance of gold and gold miners will depend in part on the Fed’s policy path. Should the Fed be more hawkish and raise rates in the next couple of meetings, both gold and the miners will likely underperform as investors position towards higher yielding assets. However, if real rates remain low, gold will continue to attract attention as a potential store of value which may offer a ballast to equity market volatility.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/051216/surprising-force-behind-golds-rally.asp