OPEC初步冻产协议之疑虑

石油输出国组织制定了初步计划，拟将当前的石油产出速度略微放缓，但交易员们都在讨论这一计划最终能否产生作用。

Price Futures Group高级市场分析师Phil Flynn说道：“任何产出限制都是大事。”

十四国组织希望将产量限制在每天3250万桶至3300万桶之间。OPEC上月的石油报告显示，当前的产量为每天3324桶。但是产量协议要到11月30日才能完成。

为了达到目标产量，OPEC成员们需要降低当前的原油开采速度。

美国银行财富管理中心的高级投资策略师Robert Haworth表示：“石油产出减速可能会有些作用，但是市场仍有过剩的美国原油和OECD原油库存需要处理。”

他说：“目前我们的观点是，好处是有限的，当油价突破50美元时，石油制造商的热情会被重新点燃，这限制了油价的进一步上涨。”

分析家指出，石油产出的削减幅度让人极为震惊。

Huron总经理Scott Cockerham说道：“卡特尔的石油产量减少2%无异于从泰坦尼克号上搬下一张椅子，这对全球供应影响微乎其微。除非OPEC严格按照公布的方法去执行，并制定流程来减少全球的供应量，从而使石油现货价格恢复至今年第二季度的水平。”

据知情人士透露，OPEC会在11月30日的维也纳会议上发布研究报告结果，公布减产的具体数值。这表明在接下来的两个月中，没有任何协议会生效。

“这总比没有协议要好一些，市场会时刻关注着他们。”Edward Jones的高级能源分析家Brian Youngberg说：“如果协议今天就能生效，那油价会更高。”

路透社在周三早间报道称，OPEC可能会公布石油冻产协议，但协议的细节要在下次会议上公布。

Schneider Electric 大宗商品分析家Robbie Fraser表示当时的市场情绪非常好。他将这一公告称为“OPEC有史以来的最佳公告。”

路透社的报道发布后油价便开始回升，冻产协议正式公布后油价涨幅更大。

西德州中质原油上幅逾5%，达到三周最高点。布伦特原油的涨幅也接近6%。

阿尔及利亚国际能源会谈的非正式会议是八月初以来最受关注的石油市场大事件。OPEC成员普遍希望对冻产水平进行讨论。

但又很多交易员怀疑冻产协议最终能否实行。

除此之外，OPEC的产量接近了历史最高点，原油交易员和分析家们怀疑冻产协议能否起到明显作用。

杨伯格指出，在十一月会议之前，伊朗的石油产量将达到惊人的400万桶，他们便得偿所愿了。伊朗曾表示在加入冻产计划之前先要将产量恢复至制裁前水平。

杨伯格说：“十一月可能会皆大欢喜，但在十一月之前会发生很多事。”

Doubts linger over OPEC’s preliminary deal on oil output

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has a preliminary plan that would cap oil production slightly below its current pace, but traders are debating whether it will make a lasting difference.

“Any production restraint is a big deal,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

The 14-nation group of major oil producers is targeting a production cap that would hold output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day. OPEC’s latest monthly oil report pegged current member output at 33.24 million barrels a day. But the output agreement won’t be completed until at least Nov. 30.

To reach that output target, OPEC members would need to reduce the rate at which they’re producing crude oil.

“This downshift is likely to help” rebalance the global oil market, said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist with U.S. Bank Wealth Management. But the market will still have to “work through the excess of U.S. and OECD oil inventories.”
“For now our view remains that upside here is limited, with prices above $50 per barrel likely rekindling U.S. oil production and limiting further prices gains,” he said.

The scale of the production cut isn’t terribly impressive, analysts noted.

“A 2% cut in cartel production is a lawn chair off the Titanic with regards to global supply. Unless OPEC follows up with announcements for the methodology of the cut, the specific magnitude of it, and the intent to enact a program that appreciably affects global supply going forward, expect to see the spot price of oil settle back into the range it’s inhabited since the second quarter of this year,” said Scott Cockerham, managing director at Huron.

A study will be done and reported to OPEC at its next official meeting on Nov. 30 in Vienna to figure out exactly how the reductions in output would be implemented, the sources told the newspaper. That essentially means any agreement won’t go into effect for another two months.

“It is better than no agreement, and the market is looking at it that way,” Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, told MarketWatch. “If it was effective today, oil would be even higher.”

Reuters had reported earlier Wednesday that a deal to cap output might be announced, but with details of any such agreement not set to be released until the next OPEC meeting.

Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, conveyed market sentiment at that time very well. He dubbed that news as “the most OPEC announcement ever.”

Oil prices had rallied when the Reuters report came out, then surged much more when the headline news showed that the potential deal translated into a production cut.

West Texas Intermediate crude CLX6, +0.06%  jumped by more than 5% to settle at a nearly three-week high. Brent crude LCOX6, -0.16%  tacked on almost 6%.

The informal meeting on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria had been the oil market’s most-anticipated event since it was announced in early August. OPEC was widely expected to discuss a freeze on its production levels.

Many traders have their doubts that the deal will stick.

Besides, with OPEC production near record high, oil traders and analysts alike aren’t quite sure if an output agreement will make much difference.

Still, Youngberg pointed out that by the November meeting, “Iran should be near its 4 million barrels per day bogey by then, so they would be where they want to be.” Iran has said that it planned to reach pre-sanction output levels before it would consider participating in a pact to cap production.

So, “November may finally make markets happy, but a lot could happen before then,” said Youngberg.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubts-linger-over-opecs-preliminary-deal-on-oil-output-2016-09-28