经济停滞的六种最常见解释

 Sean Ross  2016年9月18日

现在大多数发达国家的经济增长仍然难以捉摸，并且似乎没有人能解释这是因为什么。1947年到2000年间，美国经济的年均增长速度为2.2%。而这一数字在2001年到2015年间仅为0.9%。而日本、英国和欧洲的经济在这期间表现更加糟糕。尽管中央银行和政府做出了史无前例的经济刺激政策，但是经济停滞的现状并没有改变。

什么是经济停滞？

哈佛大学教授Gregory Mankiw把经济停滞称为当代的“经济病”，前财政部长awrence Summers则把它称为“长期经济停止”。尽管一些投资者从资产价格上涨中受益，但是发达国家大多数家庭的实际收入都在持平或者出现下降。

The advisory service Strategic Economic Decisions Inc.（SED） 列出了对2016年经济停滞状况的六种常见解释，这些解释都来自著名的思想家和公共政策观察家。SED表示这些解释都只是个人观点并可能包含逻辑或者事实错误。

1.没有所谓的经济停滞

第一个解释假设的成份比较大。它基于总体经济统计方式没有跟上时代的假设。高盛集团经济学家Jan Hatzius 和 Kris Dawsey指出官方失业率相对较低、企业利润率和股票估值极高、技术进步显著。这一观点声称经济增长速度的下降是一个因为软件没有改进出现的统计幻觉。

2.仍然受到经济大萧条的影响

考虑到2008和2009年糟糕的经济情况，奥巴马执政时期的经济实际上是相当强劲的。布鲁金斯学会经济学家Martin Neil Baily认为现在的经济困难一部分是因为经济衰退对经济和投资的影响。美国劳工部的数据显示1995年到2005年经济年均增长速度仅为0.3%。

3.长期经济停滞

Larry Summers重新使用“长期经济停滞”一词来形容实际利率长时间的下跌和对资本需求的伤害。这在很多方面都是经典凯恩斯主义的复苏，即经济缺乏足够需求并且从长期供应过剩中受到伤害。Summers说人们对手中的资金过于保守，这导致“长时间非常低的实际利率”、不景气的增长预期和对通胀能增长到2%以上的能力的担忧。

4.缺乏创新

一些专家认为美国人创新力不足。西北大学教授和经济学家Robert Gordon认为1870年到1970年是个不正常时段，很难再恢复那种经济增长速度。与发明市内自来水、电灯、飞机和空调相比，现在的企业家更多的将精力集中在小巧的机械装置和软件上。这一观点正好与统计谬误和长期经济停滞观点相反，前两种观点都强调当代创新的兴起。

5.糟糕的政府政策

分别来自米兰、伦敦、米兰和波士顿大学的经济学家Alberto Alesina、Silvia Ardagna、Roberto Perotti和Fabio Schiantarelli在美国国家经济研究所发布的数篇论文表明紧缩政策在应对经济衰退时有最好的结果，而不是政府刺激计划。从这个角度看来，美国和欧洲2001年起实施的高消费、严监管和低利率的政策一直以来都是私营部门的巨大负担。

6.大政府和大企业的联合

奥巴马总统的经济顾问、白宫经济学家Jason Furman认为大企业现在可以从大政府中获得太多的好处。这些好处包括垄断特权、政府补贴、优惠政策和其他非竞争性优势。Furman特别引用了在超低利率环境下资本回报率的上升。总而言之，是政府在挑选输家和赢家，这意味着大公司不再需要提供有吸引力的工资或者用更低的成本赢得市场。

The 6 Most Common Explanations for Economic Stagnation

By Sean Ross | September 18, 2016 — 12:00 PM EDT

Economic growth remains elusive for most of the developed world, and nobody seems to agree about why. Between 1947 and 2000, the U.S. economy grew by an average of 2.2% each year. That slowed to just 0.9% per year between 2001 and 2015. The economies of Japan, the United Kingdom and continental Europe have performed even worse over that span. This widespread economic stagnation endures despite unprecedented stimulus efforts from central banks and governments.

What Is Economic Stagnation?

Harvard professor Gregory Mankiw dubbed economic stagnation the modern "economic sickness," and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers credits it with the term "secular stagnation." While some investors have benefited from rising asset prices, especially those at the top of the income scale, most households in advanced economies have experienced flat or falling real income.

The advisory service Strategic Economic Decisions Inc. (SED) lists six common explanations for 2016's stagnant economic conditions, each drawn from leading thinkers or public policy wonks. The SED is clear that each explanation only represents a partial explanation and many contain logical or factual fallacies.

1. There Is No Economic Stagnation

The first explanation is mostly anecdotal. It rests on the assumption that traditional aggregate measures of the economy have not caught up with the times. As Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) economists Jan Hatzius and Kris Dawsey noted, the official unemployment rate is relatively low, corporate profit margins and stock valuations are extremely high, and technological progress abounds. This view purports that the decline in growth is a statistical mirage that does not account for software improvements.

2. Still Suffering From Great Recession

A common refrain from the outgoing Obama administration is that the economy is actually fairly strong, considering the terrible nature of the Great Recession years of 2008-2009. Brookings Institution economist Martin Neil Baily argues that the economic woes are partially resultant of the recession clobbering the economy and hurting investment. From 1995 to 2005, labor productivity increased 2.5% per year. Between 2010 and 2015, growth was just 0.3% per year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

3. Secular Stagnation

Larry Summers famously revived the old term "secular stagnation" to refer to a period when real long-term interest rates decline and hurt demand for capital. This is in many ways a revival of classic Keynesian arguments: The economy lacks sufficient aggregate demand and suffers from chronic excess supply. People are too conservative with their dollars, says Summers, which results in "very low long-term real rates, sluggish growth expectations, and concerns about the ability even over the fairly long term to get inflation to average 2 percent."

4. Lack of Innovation

Some experts believe that the U.S. population is not innovative enough. Northwestern professor and economist Robert Gordon believes the period between 1870 and 1970 was an aberration, and that level of growth is unlikely to return. Rather than inventing things such as indoor plumbing, electrical lighting, air travel and air conditioning, the modern crop of entrepreneurs is mostly gadget and software-savvy. This view stands in contrast to the statistical mirage and secular stagnation theories, both of which highlight the rise of modern innovation.

5. Bad Public Policy

Economists Alberto Alesina, Silvia Ardagna, Roberto Perotti and Fabio Schiantarelli, professors from Milan, London, Milan and Boston College, respectively, published several working papers through the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that show austerity measures working best in response to recessions, not government stimulus programs. In this light, the high-spending, high-regulation and low-interest-rate policies of the United States and Europe since 2001 have been a chronic burden on the private sector.

6. Marriage Between Big Government and Big Business

White House economist Jason Furman, chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, argues that big businesses can now receive too many favors from big government. These benefits include monopoly privileges, unearned subsidies, preferential government regulations and other noncompetitive advantages. Furman specifically cites rising returns on capital in the face of ultra-low interest rates. In short, the government is picking winners and losers, which means big companies no longer have to offer attractive salaries or lower costs to win in the marketplace.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/091816/6-most-common-explanations-economic-stagnation.asp