Chase Carmichael  2016年7月29日

2016年6月24日，大量抛售使标准普尔500指数合约进入了一个下跌交易限制。在英国退欧公投期间，标准普尔500指数的电子迷你期货合约下跌到1999点，在交易暂停之前下跌5.07%。投资者担心英国离开欧盟的决定威胁了英国国内和国际的经济稳定，正如英国的主权债务评级从AA+下降到AA。然而，这次美国股票价格的下跌仅仅相当于2015年8月中国人民币贬值引起的股票下跌的12%。

人民币贬值

法国兴业银行的Albert Edwards认为人民币正在进行秘密贬值对全球经济的危害远远大于英国退出欧盟。在2015年8月起，中国的贸易加权货币篮子已经下降10%，即使在人民币对美元汇率稳定之后还在下跌。中国人民银行对人民币的贬值散发出极度不祥的信号，因为这说明中国这个全球第二大经济体的疲软。为了保持GDP的增长，中国人民银行采取了出口通货紧缩政策，以防止该国最大的经济板块出口业的萎缩。这不仅仅对大宗商品价格产生进一步压力，更重要的是，中国的行为可能会挑起一场货币战争。在这种情况下，出口依赖型国家会争相进行货币贬值，以全球经济的增长为代价避免本国的通货紧缩。

巨大的债务压力

除了正在发酵中的货币危机，中国人民银行的宽松货币政策使得信贷情况日益不稳定。因此，中国的银行资产在七年间上涨了210%，在2016年第一季度超过了31万亿美元。在这31万亿美元之中，净债务占25万亿美元，其中包括国内和国际借贷。事实上，2015年末中国的总私人和公共债务额为GDP的350%，远远高于专家认为的250%到300%这个经济增长下降的水平。

贷款效率低下

中国在2009年达到效率的最低点，要求四个单位的贷款产生一个单位的GDP。贷款效率低下的一个重要原因是新贷款被用来偿还原来的贷款。2014年，中国政府同意地方政府发行债券。从那之后，地方政府债券收入的97.5%都被用来偿还未偿还债务。此外，2015年发行公司债券的44%用于偿还现有债务，当你考虑到中国的最高企业负债比率为GDP的160%时，你会发现这是一个非常高金额。国际货币基金组织预测，中国因企业贷款违约造成损失将超过该国GDP的7%。截止到2016年6月，中国的不良贷款率达到了1.7%，世界知名的咨询管理公司麦肯锡的信用分析师预测如果中国继续以当前的形式放贷，那么到2019年这一比例将达到15%。

新贷款的高速发放
到目前为止，中国仅仅加大了信贷创造。2016年第一季度是中国经历了有史以来新增贷款最快的三个月，新增贷款6.2万亿元，时新增贷款的速度比2015年快50%多。麦肯锡公司认为，如果中国继续当前的借贷趋势，每年处理的不良贷款数量将从1万亿增加到3万亿。

China, Not Brexit, Is the Biggest Problem for the World

By Chase Carmichael | July 29, 2016 — 11:00 AM EDT

On June 24, 2016, massive selling in stock futures sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) contracts into a limit-down trading curb. Amid the Brexit vote, E-mini futures in the S&P 500 Index dove to 1,999, dropping 5.07% before trading was halted. Investors worry that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) threatened domestic and international economic stability, as evidenced by the downgrade of U.K. sovereign debt from AA+ to AA rating. However, the recent drop in U.S. stock prices pales in comparison to the 12% plunge following the contagion caused by China’s currency devaluation in August 2015.

Renminbi Devaluation

Albert Edwards of the Societe Generale Group believes that the ongoing stealth renminbi (RMB) devaluation presents a greater danger for the worldwide economy than Britain’s exit of the EU. Since August 2015, China’s trade-weighted currency basket has tumbled 10%, continuing to decline even as the RMB/dollar exchange rate has stabilized. The devaluation of the RMB by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is quite foreboding as it signals considerable weakness in the world’s second largest economy. Attempting to preserve gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the PBOC has resorted to exporting deflation to prevent the contraction of the country’s largest sector, exports. Not only does this place further pressure on commodity prices, but more importantly, China’s actions risk starting a currency war. During this scenario, export-dependent countries competitively devalue their currencies, warding off deflation at the cost of global growth.

Massive Debt Burden

In addition to the brewing currency crisis, the PBOC continues to foster an increasingly precarious credit situation through an accommodative monetary policy that supports the creation of bad credit via lax regulation and cheap lending. As a result, China’s total banking assets have risen by 210% in seven years, amounting to over $31 trillion as of the first quarter of 2016. Of that $31 trillion, net debt amounts to $25 trillion, including both domestic and foreign borrowing. In fact, at the end of 2015, China’s total private and public debt stood at 350% of GDP, well above the 250 to 300% level that expert studies credit to a decrease in economic growth.

Credit Inefficiency

China has reached the highest point of debt inefficiency since 2009, requiring the input of four units of credit to produce a single unit of GDP. A large factor surrounding debt inefficiency has been the increased use of new lending by both the public and private sectors to finance existing credit obligations. In 2014, the Chinese government agreed to allow the issuance of bonds by local municipalities. Since then, the income generated from 97.5% of municipal bonds has gone to paying outstanding debt obligations. Additionally, 44% of corporate bonds issued in 2015 went to repaying existing debt, which is a considerable amount when you take into consideration that China has the highest corporate debt ratio at 160% of GDP. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China’s potential losses from corporate loan defaults would total over 7% of the country’s GDP. As of June 2016, China’s ratio of nonperforming loans hit 1.7%. Nevertheless, world-renowned management consulting firm McKinsey & Company’s credit analysis predicts this ratio could hit 15% in 2019 if China continues on its current path of exorbitant lending.

Rapid Pace in New Lending

Thus far, China has only expanded its rate of credit creation. In the first quarter of 2016, the Chinese economy experienced the biggest three-month surge in new borrowing on record, increasing credit by 6.2 trillion yuan and pushing the rate of new lending to more than 50% ahead of 2015’s pace. According to McKinsey & Company, if China continues its current borrowing trend, the cost of handling bad debt could appreciate from 1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan every year.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供 

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/072916/china-not-brexit-biggest-problem-world.asp