英国退出欧盟将会对欧洲经济造成怎样的影响

John Burke 2016年7月8日

美国东部时间2016年6月24日上午2点英国退欧公投出现了结果，最终结果是51.9%的投票选民决定离开欧盟而48.1%的投票选民决定留在欧盟。一小时之后，欧洲股票市场开盘大跌。在五分钟内，英国FTSE 100指数下跌8.39%，欧洲STOXX 50指数下跌9.73%，德国DAX指数下跌 9.14%%。到美国东部事件上午5：32，英镑汇率下跌到1.33美元，为1985年以来的最低点。

尽管市场对这一消息出现了震惊反应，但是还是有许多英国会退出欧盟的警告以及这一事件对英国和欧盟可能造成的后果的预测。虽然英国不是欧洲货币联盟的成员，但是该国还是欧洲无障碍贸易和统一市场的受益者。

经济风险的警告

在一项对英国退出欧盟对全球经济影响的评估中，国际货币基金组织按照国际货币基金协议条款的第四条进行了一次官方行动。在2016年5月13日发布的评估结束声明中，国际货币基金组织提出了下述关于英国退出欧盟可能出现结果的警告。

虽然英国不需要再支付占其GDP 0.33%的欧盟预算费用，但是增加的贸易壁垒将会使产出损失超过其GDP的1%。如果英国不与欧盟谈判建立新的关系，该国将失去单一市场准入便利并受国际贸易组织条款的约束受到贸易壁垒的阻碍。根据英国与欧盟和世界其他国家新建立的经济协议的不同，该国的损失可能在GDP的1.5%到9.5%之间浮动。英国经济受到的打击可能会产生连锁反应，导致地区和全球市场受到影响。

投资银行的观点

在英国退欧刚刚出现明显迹象时，摩根士利丹的Andrew Sheets在2016年6月23日提示客户欧洲股票市场可能从他们购入水平下跌15%到20%。Andrew Sheets预计美国股票和债券将从其避险地位中受益。

瑞士信贷集团警告称香港、新加坡和越南是与英国关系最密切的亚洲经济体。大约有2%的新加坡GDP来自对英国的出口。由于欧盟经济受到打击，新加坡和越南将是亚洲受影响最为严重的国家，因为他们6%-7%的GDP来自对欧盟的出口。

2016年6月21日，索罗斯发布了对英国退出欧盟可能引发英国经济衰退的担忧，因为可能的金融危机将会使英格兰银行的可用资源减少。他指出金融投机者将是英国退出欧盟的唯一受益者，因此选民将会变得更加贫穷。

仅仅在公投结果即将公布之前，德意志银行发布了一份市场长期不确定的前景预测。虽然大多数新闻报道都认为英国需要两年的时间准备正式离开欧盟，德意志银行预测这一准备时间将为三年。德意志银行的预测包括欧洲STOXX 600指数下跌15%和德国十年期债券的收益率将为-0.10%到-0.15%。报告中提到的其他下行风险包括可能出现的欧洲银行危机。

How Brexit Can Affect the European Economy (MS, DB)

By John Burke | July 8, 2016 — 3:00 PM EDT 

At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, June 24, 2016, the final voting results from Britain’s referendum on whether to leave the European Union (EU) indicated 51.9% in favor of leaving and 48.1% in favor of remaining. One hour later, the European stock markets opened to an air pocket. Five minutes into the session, Britain’s FTSE 100 index was down 8.39%, the Euro STOXX 50 index had plunged 9.73%, and Germany’s DAX index sank 9.14%. By 5:32 a.m. EDT, the exchange rate for the British pound had fallen to $1.33, its lowest level since 1985.

Although the markets exhibited a shocked reaction to the news, there had been plenty of warnings about the risks of a vote in favor of a Brexit, as well as the potential consequences for both Britain and the EU in the event of such an outcome. Although Britain is not a member of the European currency union, known as the eurozone, the nation benefits from the trade barrier-free, EU single market.

Warnings of Economic Risks

In an effort to assess the global economic consequences of a potential exit from the EU by Britain, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted an official mission pursuant to Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement. In its May 13, 2016, consultation concluding statement of the mission, the IMF provided the following admonitions about the consequences of a Brexit.

Although Britain would avoid its obligatory, net EU budget contribution of 0.33% of its gross domestic product (GDP), increased trade barriers would bring output losses exceeding 1% of the nation’s GDP. Unless Britain negotiates a new relationship with the EU, the nation would lose its single-market access and become subject to trade barriers in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Depending on the terms of Britain’s new economic agreements with the EU and other nations of the world, the United Kingdom’s estimated losses could range between 1.5 and 9.5% of the nation’s GDP. The hit to Britain’s GDP could have contagion effects, causing spillovers to regional and global markets.

Views From Investment Banks

Once it became apparent that a vote in favor of the Brexit was likely, Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) advised clients that the European equity markets could experience declines of as much as 15 to 20% from their closing levels on June 23, 2016. Sheets anticipated that U.S. stocks and bonds would benefit from an enhancement of their safe haven status.

Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS) warned that Hong Kong, Vietnam and Singapore were the Asian economies with the most exposure to the United Kingdom. Nearly 2% of Singapore's GDP results from its exports to Britain. Should the spillover hit the EU, Singapore and Vietnam would be the hardest hit Asian nations because 6 to 7% of their GDP is derived from exports to the European Union.

On June 21, 2016, George Soros expressed his concern that the aftermath of a Brexit could push the U.K. into a recession because the Bank of England had dwindling resources available as a result of the financial crisis. He noted that financial speculators would be the only ones to gain from a Brexit, and the voters would become considerably poorer as a result.

Just before the Brexit votes were completely counted, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) provided an outlook of a sustained period market uncertainty. While most news reports explained that Britain would have two years to resolve its official departure from the EU, Deutsche Bank anticipated that it would take three years. The Deutsche Bank forecast included a 15% drop for the Euro STOXX 600 index and a yield of negative 0.10% to negative 0.15% for the 10-year German bund. Other downside risks mentioned in the report included a potential European banking crisis.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/070816/how-brexit-can-affect-european-economy-ms-db.asp