英国退欧是“长期缓慢增长”的结果

在退欧星期五那天，市场纷纷暴跌。我在上一季的致客户信中列出了潜在市场干扰的详单，而英国退欧正是其中一个。

在我看来，英国退欧是经济长期缓慢增长的结果。全球经济持续疲软，财富流向少数人，很多人对此感到沮丧。人们都渴望着有人能够解决他们的焦虑。

对于市场来说，退欧事件是夏季修正的导火索而不是一天就能了结的事件。对于那些惶恐的人们来说，现在可能会有现金投资的机会。在过去的几年中，我一直建议投资者积累资金，随着市场逐渐步入长期缓慢增长的阶段，这些人便是明天的赢家。

赢家不会是引领市场的商业大鳄，而是追随我的投资基本趋势的人们，我建议大家关注以下公司及版块：

从世俗破坏性变化中获益的公司和版块，如：老龄化人口、气候变化以及千禧年家庭的形成等。

受政府和央行支持的公司和版块，无论它们是否有价值。

在活跃的动量交易中展示价值定价的公司和版块。

反过来说，没有上述支持的公司和版块可能会出现生产力低下、员工不足、高额全球债务、市场结构受损以及情绪民粹主义等问题。这些公司关注于热点问题，但却不能给出清晰的解决方案。

我一直在描述着一个“长期缓慢增长”的世界，现金充足的前瞻性投资者应该关注在这个世界中仍然表现良好的投资产品。以下是我看好的进一步修正的ETF产品：

SPDR Select Health Care ETF，关注人口老龄化问题及分红。

Powershares QQQ，包含大量生物技术，在分散投资的 ETF 中将继续保持其破坏性及支撑性。

Guggenheim Solar ETF 处于增速最快的市场之中，不久后将从行业整合中获益。

First Trust Natural Gas ETF 持有页岩油公司，并计划在行业整合、油价和汽油价上涨后开始反弹。

WisdomTreee Europe Hedged Equity ETF 将从欧元下跌及欧洲央行刺激性政策中获益。该 ETF 分红优厚并提供分散投资。

我知道，形势惨淡时期的投资令人无比担忧，但这时候做出的决策往往是正确的。对于那些满仓投资的人们来说，挽回的方法是寻找斩仓的机会，因为高速增长的时代已经过一去不返，市场将继续走低。

Brexit is a result of ‘slow growth forever’

KIRK SPANO

Last Friday morning, many markets fell sharply based upon the Brexit vote. The Brexit was one of the items in my long list of potential market disruptions that I had noted in my last quarterly letter to clients.

In my opinion, the Brexit is a symptom of the "slow growth forever" that I have talked about here and here, as well as, on my blog. People are frustrated that the global economy continues to be slow and that wealth flows to relatively few. This vote, even if it had gone the other way, underscores that people want answers to their anxieties.

For markets, this event is likely more of a catalyst for a summer corrective period than a one-day event. For those who don't panic, there will likely be some opportunities to invest some of the cash I have urged people to accumulate the past year as the world and markets adjust to "slow growth forever" and pick out tomorrow's winners.

The winners of tomorrow won't be the mega-caps that have led in the past couple years. Nor will the winners be broad indexes. The winning themes we are following at my investment letter Fundamental Trends are these:

·         Companies and sectors that benefit from secular and disruptive change, such as aging demographics, climate change and millennial household formation, will do well — there are many sub-themes.

·         Companies and sectors that receive government and central bank support will benefit whether they really deserve to or not.

·         Companies and sectors that exhibit value pricing in the face of hyperactivity by momentum traders will set up to be the next momentum plays.

Conversely, companies and sectors that do not have at least some of those supportive factors will likely stagnate or decline in an era with flat productivity, fewer workers to dependents, high global debt, damaged market structures and an emotional populism that focuses well on problems but offers little in clear-headed solutions.

What forward-looking investors with cash to invest ought to be doing is looking for opportunities to start scaling into the types of investments that will do well in the "slow growth forever" world I keep describing. Here are a few ETFs that I like on further correction:

SPDR Select Health Care ETF XLV, +0.63%  due to aging demographics and its dividends.

Powershares QQQ QQQ, +0.50%  which contains a heavy slug of technology and biotechnology that will continue to be disruptive and supportive of this top performing diversified ETF.

Guggenheim Solar ETF TAN, +0.19%  which is riding one of the fastest-growing markets in the world and will soon benefit from consolidation in the industry.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF FCG, +1.44%  which holds shale gas companies poised to rebound on industry consolidation, and, rising oil and gas prices. Of note is that the fund has replaced many of last year's financial unsound stinkers.

WisdomTreee Europe Hedged Equity ETF HEDJ, +0.02%  which will benefit from a falling Euro and ECB stimulus. It pays a good dividend and offers diversification.

I know it is scary to invest when things seem dark, but it usually the right thing to do. For those of you who are fully invested, rallies are opportunities to trim, as high growth rates are never coming back and the markets will eventually head further down than last week.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-is-a-result-of-slow-growth-forever-2016-07-01