鲍威尔：英国退欧加剧全球经济下行风险

美联储理事鲍威尔周四表示：在英国退欧公投之前，全球经济疲软，金融市场动荡，这些都给美国的经济带来了风险，而公投的结果更是雪上加霜。

鲍威尔是英国退欧后首个发表讲话的美联储官员。

他认为现在判断英国退欧公投的影响还为时过早，因为美联储可能在未来的几个月内继续维持利率不变。自上周公投以来，美国金融市场已经出现了“适当”收紧，美元持续走强，股票价格不断下跌，信用利差仍在扩大。

市场参与者们都认为美联储不会在年内加息了。

鲍威尔在演讲中没有提及美联储加息的时机。去年十二月，美联储的利率从0.25%上涨至0.5%，然后便再无寸进。

美联储官员们想放慢加息的步伐，而不是等到通胀出现再突然加息。但是鲍威尔认为这不是当前需要考虑的问题。

他说：“人们认为应该在经济形势变得紧张以及通胀出现之前提高利率。但这不是我们现在需要面对的问题。”

他很担心四月和五月的就业数据。

鲍威尔说：“虽然我不想从两个月的数据中得出太多结论，但劳动力市场的复苏至关重要，因为我们可以从中推测出当季的GDP增长情况。”

他补充道：“就业增长可能丧失动能令人倍感担忧。”

他认为美国经济只能勉强应付过去。

鲍威尔对美国经济“基本预期”是：美国经济继续保持2%的增长速率，劳动力市场有所回暖，通胀逐渐上涨并将超过年度目标。

但是投资者们认为通胀会维持在较低的水平，鲍威尔也认为这是个问题。

鲍威尔说：“当前的通胀水平太低，这是个问题。我们会不断努力，争取将通胀率提升至2%。”

鲍威尔表示，如果美联储退缩了，利率也不会自动上涨。

“这不仅仅是我们的事情，是全球各方势力压低了利率。”他说。

鲍威尔不太担心通货紧缩的问题，他反而担心低通胀、低增长、低利率的状况会持续太久。

“经济复苏不是理所当然的。”他说。

“我们需要继续努力。”

Brexit has shifted global risks ‘even further’ to the downside, Fed’s Powell says

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Global weakness and financial market volatility posed dangers to the U.S. economy even before the Brexit vote last week and the results of the referendum have simply shifted these risks “even further” to the downside, said Fed Governor Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

“The risks to the global outlook were somewhat elevated even prior to the referendum, and the vote has introduced new uncertainties,” Powell said in a speech followed by questions from the audience at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Powell’s remarks are the first from a Fed official in the wake of the decision last week by U.K. voters to leave the European Union.

The Fed governor said it was “far too early” to judge the effects of the Brexit vote on the U.S. economy, suggesting the U.S. central bank could hold interest rates steady for months. He said there has been a “modest” tightening in U.S. financial market conditions since the vote last week as the dollar has strengthened, equity prices have dropped and credit spreads have widened.

Markets don’t expect any more rate hikes this year.

In his remarks, Powell did not discuss the timing of future rate hikes. The U.S. central bank hiked rates once in December to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% but has so far been unable to move again.

Fed officials had wanted to move rates up gradually rather than waiting and hiking rapidly if inflation reemerged. But Powell said this didn’t seem the problem at the moment.

“People say interest rates have to go up before the economy gets so tight that it will overshoot and there will be inflation...that doesn’t seem to me to be the problem we face right now,” he said.

Powell said he was worried about the weak job growth in April and May.

“While I would not want to make too much out of two monthly observations, the strength of the labor market has been a key feature of its recovery, allowing us to look through quarterly fluctuations in GDP growth,” Powell said.

“So the possible loss of momentum in job growth is worrisome,” he added.

Still, Powell said he thought the U.S. economy was likely to muddle through.

Powell said his “baseline expectation” has been that the U.S. economy continues to grow at around 2% growth, with “healing” labor markets and inflation moving up “over time” to the Fed’s 2% annual target.

But investors believe inflation will stay low and Powell said this was a concern.

Inflation expectations are “low to the point where it is troubling. We’ve got to get inflation to 2% and I’m certainly committed to doing,” Powell said.

The Fed governor said interest rates would not automatically go way up if the Fed “stepped back.”

“It is not just us. These are global forces that are driving these rates down,” he said.

Powell said he wasn’t worried about deflation. Instead, he was more concerned about a prolonged period of low inflation, low growth and low interest rates. This makes fiscal policy much harder and makes Fed interest-rate policy ineffective, he said.

“The recovery is not to be taken for granted,” he said.

“We need to keep pushing.”

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-has-shifted-global-risks-even-further-to-the-downside-feds-powell-says-2016-06-28