谁是退欧的大赢家？

英国退欧成功后的情况十分复杂，几个月甚至几年的时间都不足以搞清英国和欧盟之间的关系。退欧成功后，除了货币，还有哪些地方会受到影响呢？

退欧公投刚刚结束，便有人一败涂地，还有一些人成为了赢家却鲜有人知晓。

输家是一目了然的：

英国首相卡梅伦是留欧派，他在周五早间宣布辞职。

英镑计价的资产和收入，或者说是富有的英国人。

输家还有各金融机构，他们的股价在周五出现大幅下跌，其中以欧洲央行为最（瑞士联合银行下跌13%，瑞士信贷下跌16%，法国巴黎银行下跌21%，苏格兰皇家银行下跌27%，巴克莱银行下跌20%，劳埃德银行下跌23%，德国商业银行下跌16%）。

那么退欧成功的赢家是谁呢？

第一个赢家是黄金持有者。黄金仍然是金本位时期的避险资产。交易员们在周五早上做的第一件事情就是买入黄金。金价在当天上涨了5%，达到每盎司1315美元，在周一继续上涨至1325美元。而其他的大宗商品，如原油、天然气等都同股票一样被大量抛售。

在接下来的几周中，政治领域和金融领域都会有很大的不确定性，因此黄金信徒都是退欧公投的大赢家。

第二个大赢家是鲍里斯·约翰逊。他是前任伦敦市长，曾在国会担任了13个月的议员，现在他是最热门的首相候选人。事实上，英国的博彩公司认为约翰逊带领的保守党取代首相卡梅伦的赔率为4:6。

约翰逊是退欧派的领袖，他会给新任首相带来极大的政治威胁。他现在已经收获了他的政治果实。

保守党在去年的选举中以微弱的优势获胜，在650个下议院席位中获得了330个。如果约翰斯能够接任卡梅伦的职务，那么他将一直担任首相之职，直至下次选举。

第三大赢家是在线交易商/外汇经纪商。退欧成功引发了金融市场的剧烈动荡，而且这个动荡将持续很长时间，因此外汇经纪商在很长时间内都会享有极高的交易量。

在市场动荡的时期，外汇经纪商的现有客户会增加交易量，也会有很多新户加入到炒汇行列。所有的外汇经纪商都能从中获益，而且这一趋势将持续很长时间。

这些在线经纪商的股价也被整体股市拉低，在周五的交易日内，IG 集团股价下跌4%，CMC Markets 下跌2%，Plus500下跌3%，伦敦资本集团下跌2%，瑞讯银行下跌4%，盈透集团下跌6%。

然而，一旦投资者们清醒过来，就会发现这些外汇经纪商是退欧事件的大赢家。

第四个大赢家是唐纳德·特朗普。令人讽刺的是，在退欧公投结果公布的那一天，唐纳德就在英国。如果全世界的目光没有聚焦于退欧公投的结果，特朗普重新收购苏格兰西部特恩贝里高尔夫度假村的消息便会登上头条。

虽然特在特恩贝里的投资没有收获世界的瞩目，但是他和他的支持者对退欧的结果十分满意。

Who are the big winners from the #VoteLeave Brexit referendum victory?

It will be a long time before we better understand the implications of the #VoteLeave victory in last week’s UK Brexit referendum.

Indeed it will be a while – perhaps even months or years – before we really find out what the new relationship will be between the UK and the rest of Europe. And what else might change (breakup of the EUR currency?) in the wake of the Leave win.

However in the immediate aftermath of the Leave side victory there were some very clear losers, and some less obvious winners.

The (near term) Brexit losers were fairly easy to spot:

• about-to-be-former British Prime Minister David Cameron who led the Remain campaign, and who fell on his sword Friday morning by resigning;
• anyone with GPB denominated assets and income, namely wealthy Brits; and
• financial institutions, especially European banks, whose shares dropped more than most in Friday trading (e.g UBS -13%, Credit Suisse -16%, BNP Paribas -21%, SocGen –23%, Royal Bank of Scotland -27%, Barclays -20%, ING -19%, Lloyds -23%,  Commerzbank -16%…).

The winners, however, were a little harder to discern.

So who seemed to gain from the surprise Leave victory?

Here is an initial list we compiled. Do you agree, or disagree? Someone or some group we left out? Let us know by adding your comments below.

Gold bugs. Gold is still the ‘Gold Standard’ when it comes to safe haven assets. And one of the first things traders did Friday when all heck broke loose was buy gold. For the day Friday, Gold ended up about 5% to $1,315 an ounce (and continued upwards early Monday to $1,325) as other commodities such as Crude Oil and Natural Gas were dumped alongside equities. CNBC reported that a number of noted hedge funds were long gold, including George Soros (who seems to always benefit from UK woes), his former protege Stan Druckenmiller, and UK based Odey Asset Management (known in the Forex world as a 25% owner of Plus500 Ltd (LON:PLUS)).

With a lot of both political and financial uncertainty to follow in the weeks and months to come, it looks like Gold believers will be one of the big winners from Brexit.

Boris Johnson. The Mayor of London until less than a year ago, Boris Johnson has been a Member of Parliament for just 13 months and although he was not a minister in departing PM David Cameron’s cabinet, he now stands as the odds-on favourite to replace Cameron as Prime Minister. In fact, UK bookmakers have Johnson as the odds-on favourite at 4:6 to be the choice of his ruling conservative party to win the PM race to replace Cameron, which should occur by the time of the party’s October caucus.

Johnson was both the emotional and vocal leader of the Vote Leave campaign, which was a big political risk for the new MP, and he now stands to reap the rewards of his political gambit.

And with the Conservatives having won last year’s election with a (slim) majority, holding 330 seats in the 650 seat House of Commons, Johnson (if he’s the chosen as successor to Cameron) might be Prime Minister for a while until calling the next election.

Online trading / Forex brokers. The Leave victory creates a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets, which looks like it will last a while. And that is likely, in our view, to result in increased trading volumes at Forex brokers for a prolonged period, as volatility is likely to rule the markets for a prolonged period.

Periods of heightened volatility leading to increased trading volumes are ideal conditions for Forex brokers to both increase Revenues from existing clients, and to attract new clients who want to get in on all the action. A good example was our report earlier this morning on FCA regulated FX and CFD broker Plus500, which saw record Spread revenues as well as record new client signups on Friday.

We also earlier reported on record trading volumes at some of the institutional eFX platforms on Friday. No reason to believe that it was any different at most of the Retail Forex brokers. And the good times in the form of growing trading volumes are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

The shares of publicly traded online brokers were dragged down on Friday along with the rest of the equity market – IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) -4%, CMC Markets Plc (LON:CMCX) -3%, London Capital Group Holdings plc (LON:LCG) -2%, Plus500 Ltd (LON:PLUS) -3%, Swissquote Group Holding SA (SWX:SQN) -4%, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) -6%.

However once the markets regain their sanity we believe that investors will come to realize that all this change and volatility will benefit those who are agents of change – the Forex brokers.

Donald Trump. The Donald was, somewhat ironically, in the UK the day the Brexit vote result was announced. If not for the total focus of the global media on Brexit fallout, Donald Trump’s appearance at the formal re-opening of his recently acquired Turnberry golf resort in western Scotland would have been lead-item news in the UK, the US and elsewhere.

While Trump might be a bit disappointed that he didn’t get the coverage he was hoping for to promote his new investment in Turnberry, he and his supporters were nevertheless very buoyed and encouraged by the result of the Brexit referendum.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：

https://www.leaprate.com/2016/06/who-are-the-big-winners-from-the-voteleave-brexit-referendum-victory/