美油数据疲软与退欧危机致油价下跌

亚洲交易时间星期四，由于美国原油数据疲软以及对英国退欧的担忧，原油期货价格连续第六个交易日下跌。

在纽约商品交易所，七月交付的轻质低硫原油期货下跌了1%，跌至每桶47.55美元。在伦敦洲际交易所，八月交付的布伦特原油下跌了0.8%，跌至48.61美元。

全球油价近来震荡下跌，起因是美国页岩油产量可能随着钻井数量的增加而开始回升。

在6月10日的那一周，美国原油库存缩减量低于预期，只有93.3万桶。奥克拉荷马州库新码头的原油运输量增加了52.5万桶。

但原油产量减少了2.9万桶，跌至每天872万桶。

法国兴业银行分析家表示：“全球原油的基本面仍呈上升趋势，今年下半年的全球原油产品受到小幅牵引，但当前的原油市场仍处在规避风险的情绪中。美国周报也无法改变这一状况。”

投资者们担心的是，随着油价的攀升，美国原油制造商会禁不住诱惑，开始大量挖掘新油井，这样一来，油价暴跌将不再遥远。

以阿帕奇公司为例，公司以35美元的油价为基准制定了年度预算，但油价已经涨至50美元，公司在帕米亚盆地增加五口钻井也是合情合理的。

6月23日的退欧公投在即，公众的紧张情绪推动美元上涨，而石油又与美元密切相关，那么用外国货币交易原油的利润将大幅缩水。

新加坡华侨银行分析家 Barnabas Gan 表示：“虽然联邦公开市场委员会投票决定维持0.5%的利率不变，但当前市场的基调仍是规避风险。”

某些分析家认为，虽然利率不变会给大宗商品价格提供一定的支撑，但美联储的行动如此谨慎，也可理解为他们对美国的经济增长更加谨慎了。

石油投资者将密切关注贝克休斯公司在明天公布的美国钻井数量。行业数据显示，在过去的两周中，美国石油钻井数量呈上升趋势。

SCI International 的能源分析家高健表示：“目前为止，石油市场的基本面仍是主要的价格推动因素。事实上，全球的石油还是太多了。”

在纽约商品交易所，七月交付的新配方汽油合约下跌了51个点，跌至每加仑1.4693美元，而七月交付的柴油则跌至1.4691美元，下跌了87个点。

在洲际交易所，七月交付的汽油的成交价为每吨435美元，较周三下跌了6美元。

Oil under pressure after downbeat U.S. oil data, Brexit worries

Crude oil futures fell for six straight sessions in early Asia trade day Thursday, dragged by a somewhat disappointing U.S. oil data and looming risk of Britain’s departure from the European Union.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July traded at $47.55 a barrel, down $0.46, or nearly 1%, in the Globex electronic session. August Brent crude  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.38, or 0.8%, to $48.61 a barrel.

Global oil prices have been on a downward streak for days, first pushed down by the prospect that the decline in U.S. shale production since April last year could be reversing as rig counts rise.

In the week ended June 10, U.S. crude stockpiles shrank less than expected, decreasing 933,000 barrels. Stockpiles also grew by 525,000 barrels at the key crude delivery hub of Cushing, Okla.

However, production fell by 29,000 barrels to 8.72 million barrels a day.

“While the outlook for global oil fundamentals remains constructive, with slight global crude and product draws expected in the second half of this year, the current mood in the oil markets is risk averse, and the US weekly report did not do anything to change that,” say analysts at Société Générale.

The apprehension among investors is that as prices climb, more U.S. producers will be lured to drill new wells or complete the ones that were half-way developed before the price plunge.

Apache Corp. , for example, based its budget this year on U.S. oil prices of $35 a barrel, so it is “not unreasonable” to think the company could add five rigs in the Permian basin with oil now near $50, analysts at energy-focused investment bank Simmons & Co. International, part of Piper Jaffray Cos., said in a note Wednesday.

Prices have also been stunted by nervousness regarding the June 23 British referendum on leaving the EU which has buoyed the greenback, making it less profitable for oil traders using foreign currencies as oil is pegged to the dollar.

 “Risk aversion continues to stay on the table, even as the Federal Open Market Committee votes to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%,” said Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore bank OCBC.

Some analysts say that while keeping interest rates flat may provide some support to commodities prices, the dovish action can also be interpreted as a sign that the Fed is becoming more cautious about U.S. economic growth.

Oil investors will be keeping a close eye on the U.S. rig count report by Baker Hughes Inc. tomorrow. Data by the industry group has showed an uptick in U.S. oil drilling activity for the last two weeks.

“For now, the fundamentals of the oil market will remain as the primary price movers. The fact is the world still has too much oil,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for July  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 51 points to $1.4963 a gallon, while July diesel traded at $1.4691, 87 points lower.

ICE gasoil for July changed hands at $435.00 a metric ton, down $6.00 from Wednesday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-under-pressure-after-downbeat-us-oil-data-brexit-worries-2016-06-16