Dan Moskowitz  2016年1月23日

法国兴业银行全球战略分析师和著名空头投资人Albert Edwards对经济的担心有许多原因，但是最大的忧虑是自2009年以来市场对美联储的严重依赖。

他相信量化宽松政策提高了资产价格，导致了大宗商品泡沫和虚拟繁荣并对新兴市场增长产生帮助。他认为全球经济离开美联储的支持不能独立。

谈到中国，他描绘出了一个可以扩散的逻辑模式。在他看来，人民币现在价值是被高估的，这使中国政府处于骑虎难下的境地。如果人民币维持被高估的现状，将会阻碍经济增长。如果人民币贬值以刺激经济增长，将会导致资本外流。为了维持市场份额，中国制造商不得不降价。当制造商降价，就是通货紧缩。

Edwards近期做出了另外一个评论：“在这种进口紧缩自救中西方制造商将会受到抑制。”

尽管制造业仅占美国GDP的约12%，Edwards相信通货紧缩危机将会蔓延到服务业。

Edwards认为将会出现一个衰退，导致美联储再次尝试挽回形势，而这次将不会有良好效果。根据Edwards预测的模式，他认为标准普尔500将会跌到550点。在这篇文章发布时，也就是2016年1月23日，标准普尔500在1925点交易。如果Edwards是正确的，这次危机将会比互联网危机和金融危机更加严重，这将成为“这代人遇到的最大经济崩溃”。

市场时机

如果我们全部知道如何判断市场时机，那么我们全部成为富豪。做多主义者相信市场将会出现一个修正而且经济正处于一个缓慢恢复模式中。做空主义者认为市场增长缓慢而且带有债务水平处于历史最高阶段、不计后果的借贷和谨慎消费的特点。

例如，根据基本面和变化消费以及行业趋势已经选择正确投资的做多主义者能在长期阶段赚钱，即使股票市场崩盘。这对使用平均成本方法的投资者更加适用。如果一家公司已经支付股息几十年，将会增加一个积极因素。

在做空上，大规模反弹将会使人沮丧，但是如果做空正确，他们知道牛市需要几年才能建立，而摧毁它们只需要几个月（有时几周）。换句话说，在市场反弹中的所有损失都有被未来收益抵消的可能。

总结

Edwards的观点是对的吗？不幸的是，他可能是对的。当一个前所为的老龄化和谨慎消费的经济环境中的过剩生产力必须解除和高额债务必须减少时，这不可能是我们所说的乐观情况。像往常一样，你应该做好自己的调查形成自己的结论并考虑向一个财务顾问咨询。

S&P at 550? What Wall Street's Biggest Bear Believes 

By Dan Moskowitz | February 23, 2016 

Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale and well-known perma-bear, is concerned about the economy for many reasons, but his biggest concern appears to be the market relying heavily on the Federal Reserve since 2009.

He believes that QE is what helped prop up asset prices, led to the commodity bubble and shale boom, and aided emerging market growth. He doesn’t think that the global economy can stand on its own two feet, as in without Federal Reserve assistance.

Moving over to China, he maps out a logical pattern that could lead to contagion. In his opinion, the Chinese Yuan is overvalued, which creates a dilemma for the Chinese government. If the Chinese Yuan remains overvalued, then it will stifle economic growth. If the Chinese Yuan is devalued in order to stimulate economic growth, then it will move capital out of the Chinese economy. In order to maintain market share, Chinese manufacturers will have to cut prices. When manufacturers cut prices, it’s deflationary.

Edwards recently made another comment: “The Western manufacturing sector will choke under this imported deflationary tourniquet.”

Despite manufacturing only representing approximately 12% of U.S. GDP, Edwards believes that deflationary contagion will spread to the services industry.

According to Edwards, there will be a recession, which will lead to the Federal Reserve attempting to save the day once again, only this time there won’t be enough impactful ammo. Based on the pattern Edwards expects, he’s calling for the S&P 500 to fall as low as 550. At the time of this writing — intraday Feb. 23, 2016 — the S&P 500 is trading at 1,925. If Edwards is correct, this crash would be worse than the Tech Bubble and the Financial Crisis, which is why he refers to it as “the biggest crash in a generation.”

Market Timing

If we all knew how to time the market, then we would all be rich. The longs believe there was a recent market correction and that the economy is in slow-growth recovery mode. The shorts believe that the economy is slowing while featuring record debt levels, reckless lending practices, and a cautious consumer. Nobody can say with absolute certainty that they’re correct. The best you can do is research to find out the most logical answers. And, believe it or not, longs and shorts could both still win.

For example, longs that have chosen the right investments based on fundamentals and changing consumer and industry trends should still make money over the long haul — even if the stock market crashes. This is more likely to be true for the investor taking a dollar-cost averaging approach. If the company has paid a dividend for decades, then it’s an added positive. Applying a DRIP is always worth consideration.

On the short side, large rallies can be frustrating, but if the shorts are correct, then they need to remember that while bull markets take years to build, they only take months (sometimes weeks) to be destroyed. In other words, any future gains made by shorts have the potential to offset any losses while the market was rallying.

The Bottom Line

Is Edwards correct? Unfortunately, he could be. When excess capacity must be unwound and massive debts must be deleveraged in an economic environment where an aging and reluctant consumer is ever-present, it’s not what you would call a bullish situation. As always, you should do your own research to form your own conclusions and consider consulting a financial advisor.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022316/sp-550-what-wall-streets-biggest-bear-believes.asp