俗话说一帆风顺，但实际情况却不总是这样。
在过去的几十年里，我不止一次看到这样的事，一个人一开始就赚到钱，后来也赚钱，于是他就一直赚下去。
然而前一阵子，我见了我一个朋友，她非常纠结。她有明确的目标，坚实的基础以及严谨的思维，偏偏她的交易结果不尽如人意。
不管是什么交易，她总是一开始就赔掉，她的挫败感就这样建立了起来。随着经验增加，她也有所提高，她每一步都做对了，为什么就是赚不到钱？
答案很简单：运气太差。
在网球比赛中，每次锦标赛的抽签都是随机的。抽签时，种子选手的位置时确定的，但其他的就看运气了。只要你不是排名第一的种子选手，那么每次都抽到对阵1号种子的可能性是存在的。虽然不太可能发生，但这跟你第一次玩21点就连输六局是一样的（我亲身经历过）。
交易员也会遇到同样的事，可能你拥有一个完善的系统（坚实的基础），严谨的思维（严守纪律、不情绪化），却还是赔了。
世界上最不幸的事情是，你是个优秀的交易员，但你的账户却说你是个失败者，而你失败的唯一原因就是你运气太差。如果你在别的任何时间交易，你可能就赚的满盆满钵了。可你偏偏选了这个时间点，那没办法，只能做个失败者了。
你还能做些什么呢？办法还是有的。
方法一，坚持。这是最艰难的办法。用实际行动来消除焦虑、减少怀疑。坐以待毙解决不了任何问题。
巴菲特是怎么做的?他坚持不懈。他花了320亿美元买入某公司股票，但按当前的市场形势来分析，这个公司的股价在接下来的几个月可能会下跌。巴菲特在一个运气可能不太好的时间花掉了几百亿，却仍然自我感觉良好，这是因为他打算持有“100年”。如果你信任你的长期策略，那么坚持住，它会带你致富。
方法二，多样化。如果你不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，而是分散到不同的投资组合中，事情会怎样发展呢？
方法三，每月进行一次组合优化。虽然你可能又选中了一个倒霉的时机，但你在当前市场条件中仍有挽救的机会。
坏运气就在那里，它可能会妨碍你。可是如果你准备好了，结局也会是美好的。
Good Trading During Unlucky Times
Usually, things go well right from the start, however this is not always the case.
One thing I’ve repeatedly seen with traders over the past decade is that they start winning right away, and the process is always the same. And then the winning begins.
But a while ago, I had a meeting with a friend of mine who was really struggling. She had specific goals, solid fundamentals, and a pretty good mindset. In practice, she was looking really good.
Yet, she was losing in the first round almost every trading competition and in key trades, and the frustration was starting to build. She had improved. She was doing all the right things. She’d done everything she was supposed to do. Why wasn’t it paying off?
Simple: bad luck.
In tennis, every tournament draw is made at random. The seeded players are placed in a predetermined spot in the draw, but everything else is luck of the draw. If you’re not one of the highest ranked players in the tournament, there is a chance you could be randomly chosen to play the #1 seed every time. It’s not likely, but it’s nothing different than stepping up to play Blackjack in Vegas for the very first time and losing the first six hands in a row (the first and last time I gambled in Vegas).
The same thing can happen to a trader. You can have a good system (good fundamentals), a good mindset (disciplined and unemotional), and still lose.
Ultimately, you are a good trader. But your account balance says you’re a failure, and the only reason you’re a failure is simply bad luck. If you had started trading at almost any other time, you would have had a lot of money in your account. But because you started at an unlucky time, though, you’re a loser.
So, is there anything you can do? Here are a few solutions.
One, you can persevere. It’s, by far, the hardest solution. Taking action removes anxiety and lessens doubt. Sitting around and trusting does nothing to take away those emotions.
But what does Warren Buffett do? He perseveres. He buys companies for $32 billion at a time when the stock of that company is probably going to fall in the upcoming months (along with the stock market in general). Buffett can spend billions in a potentially bad luck period and feel good about it because he’s going to be in that business for a “100 years.” When you trust your system over the long-term, perseverance can make you very wealthy.
Another thing you can do is diversify. What if, instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, you added other Robots to your portfolio? Lastly, you could choose to re-optimize every month. There’s still a chance you could start at a bad luck time, but you have a fighting chance that your system is prepared to trade in current market conditions.
Bad luck is out there and it can sabotage you. If you’re ready for it, though, you will come out very happy in the end.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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