在股票开始暴跌之前中国一切都正常，如果政府没有介入它将继续下跌， 其中包括用临时禁止卖空甚至逮捕，中断IPO，花费大量资金来支撑股市，忽视过度的债务和经济增长放缓鼓励投资者购买股票，施压给国有银行贷款给下滑的商业。

 

虽然这些都发生了，中国还对特别提款权和成为储备货币抱有希望，但是国际货币基金组织已经宣布2016年9月之前将不会做出改变。

 

上面两个情况导致中国政府将其货币相对美元贬值2%。这听起来可能不是一个巨大的变动，但是2015年8月11日之前最大的变动为0.16%。从2005年开始，人民币相对美元升值了25%，这为中国政府提供变动的空间。但是这重要吗？（相关阅读请见：《中国怎样管理其货币供应》）

 

红色多米诺骨牌

中国是世界上第二大经济体，并且许多人相信在本世纪某个时间它将超过美国成为最大的经济体。如果你观察过长期趋势、过度债务、为了GDP的过度建造，你就能计算出这不可能发生。（更多请见《现在是买入中国股票的时机吗？》）

 

美国现在处于摇摇欲坠的经济形势，但是美国也已找到回到繁荣的方法。当你把美国人的聪明才智和其丰富的自然资源结合起来，整个21世纪美国将继续是最大的经济体。然而，在那之前由于通货紧缩将会有一段非常困难的过程。

 

而中国可能不会达到通货紧缩，那是不可能的情况。当前，中国的经济增长被估计为7%，但这似乎不大可能。中国经济增长达到7%的唯一方法就是中国政府扭曲数字。中国上半年经济增长达到7%的唯一原因就是金融服务表现异常良好和股市飙升。股票已经不再上升。（更多请看《投资者应该看空中国吗》）

 

把7月作为中国经济的一个小样本。出口下降8.3%而汽车销量下滑7%。中国政府贬值其货币的一个原因是让国际买家能够负担的起他们的商品。（相关阅读：《怎样投资中国的汽车行业》）

 

同样是7月，国有银行一共贷出2400亿美元贷款。上一次国有银行贷款达到这个数量是2008年。这告诉你什么？同时把拥有美元债务的中国公司将遭受重大打击考虑进去。（更多请见：《中国拥有美国国债，但是多少呢？》）

 

如何利用

很可能这个中国政府引导的狡猾的移动将会导致股市一个短暂的反弹，这将导致错误的认为中国经济在全球央行都在拼命和通货紧缩搏斗时能够维持V型复苏。

 

从长远看来，毫无疑问股票将会再次复苏。同样，中国政府也将再次提振市场。这将导致间歇的交易经验。最终，中国政府将会耗尽弹药而自然力量将会接手，使中国股市远低于现在水平。（更多请见：《为什么中国货币现在围着美元上下摆动？》）

 

讽刺的是，中国人尽管以有耐心著称，尽管由于人口趋势中国在未来经济的反弹可能很高，（二线和三线城市正在现代化加上庞大的消费群体），中国政府却想维持其现在的经济泡沫时间越长越好。从投资的观点看来，存在一个更好的选择。（更多请见：《三个在中国投资的顶尖ETF》）

 

交易货币可能不能导致与卖空中国股票一样的上升潜力，但是会少很多麻烦。考虑到货币是高风险和不可预知的，这听起来可能很奇怪，但是现在世界上几乎所有的东西都有利美元。(更多请见：《中国的经济指标，对市场的影响》）

 

在这个事件之前，如果事件没有发生我们还有欧洲央行和日本央行的印刷货币，这正好与美国发生的去债务化一致，将导致一个强势的美元。现在中国政府对其货币的贬值使美元更加强劲。

 

这不是一个建议。如果你想投资美元，那么在这之前请做好自己的调查。我的观点是美元在不久的将来会升的更高。我同时相信中国政府只能支撑股票有限的时间。问题是时间很难判断，这使投资风险很高。

 

总结

中国政府正在尽其所能的争取时间。在上证指数第一次暴跌之前，中国政府愚弄所有人去满仓，但是投资者发现那不过是一个毫无用处的虚张声势。

 

What China Devaluing its Currency Means to Investors

By Dan Moskowitz | August 12, 2015

 

All was well in China until stocks began to plunge, and they would have continued to plunge if it hadn’t been for government intervention, which included the temporary banning of short-selling with the potential for arrests, a hiatus for IPOs, throwing good money after bad to prop up equities, encouraging investors to buy equities despite excessive debts and slowing growth, and pressuring state-owned banks to lend to failing businesses.

 

While all of this was taking place, China also had high hopes for special drawing rights and becoming a reserve currency, but the IMF has stated that no change is likely prior to September 2016.

 

The two above situations led to the Chinese government devaluing its currency by almost 2% against the U.S. Dollar. This might not sound like a big move, but the biggest daily move prior to Aug. 11, 2015 was 0.16%. Since 2005, the Renminbi has appreciated 25% against the U.S. Dollar, which gave the Chinese government room to move. But will it matter? (For related reading, see: How Does China Manage Its Money Supply?)

 

Red Dominoes

China is the second-largest economy in the world, and many people felt that it would surpass the United States as the largest economy in the world at some point this century. If you were to look at long-term trends, excessive leverage, and overbuilding to show GDP growth, you could have concluded that this wouldn’t take place. (For more, see: Is Now the Time for Chinese Stocks?)

 

The United States is in a shaky economic situation right now, but the United States also has a way of finding its way back to prosperity. When you combine American ingenuity with its vast natural resources, the United States is still the favorite to be the largest economy in the world throughout the 21st Century. However, there will be some very difficult times ahead due to deflationary forces.

 

While China might not reach deflationary levels, it’s not an impossible scenario. Currently, estimates are for China to grow at 7% in 2015, but this seems highly unlikely. The only way China grows at 7% is if the Chinese government finds a way to skew the number. The only reason China grew at 7% in the first half is because of financial services performing exceptionally well as equities soared higher. Equities are no longer soaring. (For more, see: Should Investors Be Bearish on China?)

 

Look at July as a small sampling for the Chinese economy. Exports declines 8.3% and auto sales slid 7%. One of the reasons the Chinese government devalued its currency was to make its goods for affordable for international buyers. (For related reading, see: How to Invest in China's Auto Industry.)

 

Also in July, state-run banks loaned a total of $240 billion. The last time state-run banks loaned that amount was 2008. What does that tell you? Also consider that all those Chinese companies that own debt in U.S. Dollars are going to get slammed. (For more, see: China Owns U.S. Debt, But How Much?)

 

How to Play It

It’s possible that this crafty move by the Chinese government leads to a temporary bounce in Chinese equities, which will then lead to the false belief that the Chinese economy is capable of a sustainable v-shaped recovery in a global economy where central banks are desperately fighting against deflation.

 

Over the long haul, there is little doubt that Chinese equities will head south once again. And again, the Chinese government will probably move in to prop up the market. This can lead to a fitful trading experience. Eventually, the Chinese government will run out of ammunition and natural forces will take over, bringing Chinese equities much lower than where they currently stand. (For more, see: Why China's Currency Tangos With the USD.)

 

Ironically, the Chinese are known for patience, but despite the high likelihood of the Chinese economy bouncing back in the future thanks to demographic trends (Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities being modernized + massive consumer population), the Chinese government wants to extend the current economic bubble as long as possible. From an investment perspective, a much better option exists. (For more, see: Top 3 ETFs for Investing in China.)

 

Trading currencies might not lead to the same kind of upside potential you would see with shorting Chinese stocks, but it will lead to a lot fewer headaches. That may sound strange considering currencies are seen as high risk and unpredictable, but almost everything in the world is working in favor of the U.S. Dollar right now. (For more, see: China's Economic Indicators, Impact on Markets.)

 

Prior to this event, we had the ECB and BOJ printing money as if there was no tomorrow, which coincided with the anticipated event of deleveraging in the United States-this would lead to a strengthening Dollar. Now we have the Chinese government devaluing its currency, which strengthens the U.S. Dollar even more.

 

This is not a recommendation. If you want to invest in the U.S. Dollar, then please do your own research prior to doing so. My opinion is that the U.S. Dollar will move higher in the near future. I also believe that Chinese equities can only be propped up the government for a limited amount of time. The problem here is that the timing is difficult, which makes for a high-risk trade.

 

The Bottom Line

The Chinese government is doing everything in its power to buy time. Prior to the first wave of the crash in the Shanghai Composite Index, the Chinese government fooled everyone into believing it held a full house, but investors are beginning to see that it was nothing but a stone-cold bluff. (For more, see: How Undervalued is the Yuan?)

本文翻译出自兄弟财经

 
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081215/what-china-devaluing-its-currency-means-investors.asp