Chase Carmichael  2016年8月21日

月23日英国公投决定离开欧盟，6月24日英镑兑美元下跌12%达到30年的最低点。据估计英国退出欧盟和英镑下跌将会对英国的并购活动（M&A）造成重大影响，很可能在短期内增加交易的数量但是在长期则对行业造成严重损害。律师事务所Baker & McKenzie预测退欧公投将使英国在合并和收购中的损失超过3380亿美元，到2020年对跨国公司造成的损失将高达1.6万亿。

短期内收购和合并活动的增加

尽管健康和活跃的并购市场与信用和信心息息相关，但是英镑价格下跌使一些交易对国外买家更加有吸引力。英国的投资银行报告来自亚洲公司的收购正在增加。6月，日本电讯公司SoftBank Group Corp.提出了以243亿欧元收购英国软件设计和半导体公司ARM Holdings PLC 的计划，创始人Herman Hauser把这个交易描述成英国退欧决定带来的影响之一。在6月的公投之前，SoftBan已经考虑要收购ARMH了。然而，英镑接近10%的下跌促使该日本公司启动了计划。

中国并购的激增

6月中旬，王健林的万达以9.21亿欧元收购了英国的Odeon & UCI影院集团。最近，来自中国的并购活动有大幅度增加。2016年是中国跨境交易数量（364起）和交易价值（1058亿美元）最大的一年。2016年上半年，中国跨境交易活动总量已经超过800亿美元，而且据估计因为英镑价格的下跌这一数量将会大幅增加。

总体并购交易数量的下降

尽管来自中国的跨境交易数量迅速上升，2016年英国并购活动的数量仅为一年前的一半多。2015年英国的并购活动数量达到历史最高点，总交易价值为2015亿美元。考虑到今年的并购活动可能达到2011年以来的最低点，英国退欧对投资者心理带来的影响是不可低估的。即使是通常在不利情况下获利的收购板块，也在对英国公司进行大幅度收购时采取谨慎态度。目前英国退欧带来的不确定性影响的风险非常大。

债务融资和上市数量的下降

除了并购行业，有超过6个原来计划进行融资交易和IPO的公司现在必须改变计划了。Dealogic的数据显示英国2016年IPO筹集的资金比2015年同期下降50亿美元。截止到2016年6月中旬，筹集的资金仅为33.3亿美元，而去年同期为82.9亿美元。此外，英国的跨境并购交易约比去年同期下降74%。汤森路透的数据将2016年英国并购活动列入历史最低点，到6月中旬仅占国际活动的4%。尽管英镑下跌使一些交易更具吸引力，但是不可预测的英国退欧结果给潜在投资者的心理造成重大打击，减少了英国并购活动的数量。

Will Brexit Hurt M&A in UK? (SFTBY, AMC)

By Chase Carmichael | Updated August 21, 2016 — 12:00 PM EDT

Since Britain's June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union, the pound sterling has slid 12% against the U.S. dollar to a 31-year low as of July 24, 2016. The Brexit decision and a falling pound sterling are expected to make waves in merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity, potentially boosting the number of deals in the near term while severely hurting the industry in the long run. Law firm Baker & McKenzie predicts that the Brexit vote will cost the United Kingdom upwards of $338 billion in lost M&A activity, and cost the international economy up to $1.6 trillion by 2020.

Near-Term M&A Boost

While a healthy and active M&A market is all about credibility and confidence, the fall in the pound sterling's value has made some deals much more attractive for overseas buyers. Britain's investment banks are reporting increased inquiries from Asian companies. In June, the Japanese telecommunications company SoftBank Group Corp. (OTC: SFTBY) proposed a 24.3 billion euro takeover of the British software design and semiconductor company ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH), which founder Herman Hauser describes as one of the "sad and unintended consequences" of the Brexit decision. Before the referendum in June, SoftBank was already considering a takeover of the smartphone chip designer. However, a more than 10% drop in the pound sterling prompted the Japanese company to pull the trigger.

Surge in Chinese Acquisitions

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC), the cinema chain owned by China's wealthiest citizen, Wang Jianlin, bought out U.K.-based Odeon & UCI Cinemas Group for 921 million euros in mid-July 2016. Lately, there has been a phenomenal surge in Chinese M&A activity. The year 2015 was the largest for Chinese cross-border deals in terms of the number of deals (364) and aggregate transaction value ($105.8 billion). For the first half of 2016, total Chinese cross-border M&A activity had already topped $80 billion and is expected to increase further with the fall of the pound sterling's value.

Decline in Total M&A Activity

Despite the immediate uptick in the amount of Chinese cross-border deals, U.K. M&A activity has so far been more than halved from the year before to $73.3 billion for 2016. Britain M&A activity enjoyed a record year in 2015, with a total transaction value of $201.5 billion. Considering that M&A activity is now on pace to reach its lowest level since 2011, the full impact of Brexit on the mindset of investors cannot be understated. Even the buyout sector, which usually takes advantage of distressed situations, is wary of attempting any big takeovers in the United Kingdom; the risks surrounding the uncertainty of the eventual outcome of the Brexit are simply too large at the moment.

Fall in Debt Financing & IPOs

In addition to the M&A industry, more than half a dozen British companies that had planned to begin debt-financing deals and initial public offerings (IPOs) must now change their plans. Dealogic data shows that the amount of capital raised by U.K. IPOs is down by almost $5 billion in 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. From January to mid-June of 2016, only $3.33 billion has been raised, down from $8.29 billion in the same period in 2015. Additionally, cross-border M&A deals in the United Kingdom are down by roughly 74% from the same span of time a year earlier. Thomson Reuters' data puts Britain's M&A activity at record lows for 2016, accounting for only 4% of international activity through mid-June. While a cheap pound sterling has certainly made some deals financially more attractive, the unforeseen consequences of Brexit have collectively put a major dent in the psyches of would-be investors, punishing Britain's M&A activity.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080816/will-brexit-hurt-ma-uk-sftby-amc.asp