供应过剩致担忧 原油创一周新低

在亚洲交易日的星期二，由于中国新股上市和依旧疲软的制造业数据，原油价格跌至一周以来的最低点。

在纽约商品期货交易所，3月交割的轻质低硫原油期货的价格跌至每桶31美元。在伦敦 ICE 期货交易所，四月交割的布伦特原油下跌1.8%，跌至每桶33.61美元，是周四以来的最低价。

两年来的石油供需失调导致原油价格不断下跌。分析家认为，今年下半年，原油价格可能会出现一些修正，因为他们认为一些高成本的制造商会停止损人不利己的行为。

澳新银行调查表明：“缓慢的经济增长和大宗商品政策的有效性都给油价回升增加了难度。”

世界顶级银行高盛投资公司在周一重申了之前的预测，认为油价在回升之前，可能会跌至每桶20美元，因为在短时间内减少俄罗斯和中东的产量是不可能的。

高盛银行认为，如果价格出现回升，制造商一定会立刻增加产量，所以他们的预测是不可撼动的。伊朗的增产计划也引发了对顺差增加的担忧。伊朗已经表示，在产量达到每天150万桶之前，他们不会考虑减产的问题。此外，去年俄罗斯产出的1073万桶凝析油也加剧了全球供应过剩的状况。

华侨银行表示：“随着人们对供应过剩的担忧，原油价格再一次下跌，美国原油库存也在继续增加。”

最新数据显示，美国原油库存连续三周增加，截至1月22日，库存已达840万桶。因季节性维护，炼油厂已降低了产量。花旗期货预计在1月29日增加500万至600万桶原油。美国原油上一周的库存和产量数据将在周三发布。

悲观的情绪加剧了中国制造业数据的疲弱，已出现连续六个月下降。中国的经济重心将从工业版块转向服务版块，导致了投资者对中国原油需求的担忧，但有些人认为这是不必要的。

澳大利亚国家银行首席经济学家 Alan Oster 认为，占据中国经济半壁江山的制造业和建筑业将在今年增长8.5%。他还表示，即使中国将经济重心转移至服务业，陆运和空运方面对石油也是有需求的。

Oster 说：“中国经济没有崩溃，但包括石油在内的大宗商品的需求也不会有大幅增加。”

纽约商品期货交易所三月交割的混调型精制汽油合约价格下跌了36个点，跌至每加仑1.0794美元；三月交割的柴油期货下跌了55个点，跌至1.0310美元。

ICE 2月交割的汽油的交易价格为每公吨294.5美元，较周一下跌了4.25美元。

Crude prices drop to nearly one-week low as supply worries build

Crude-oil prices hit a nearly one-week low in Asian trade Tuesday, as more fresh supplies are set to hit the market and data showed manufacturing activity in China remained weak.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March CLH6, -1.87%  traded at $31 a barrel, down $0.61, or 2% in the Globex electronic session and its lowest since Wednesday. April Brent crude LCOJ6, -1.78% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.63, or 1.8%, to $33.61 a barrel, its lowest since Thursday.

The mismatch between oil supply and demand has strained prices for nearly two years. Analysts say a price correction could happen in the second half of this year, as they expect some high-cost producers to halt production to avert debt defaults or operational losses.

“The recovery in oil prices remains fragile amid slowing global growth and concerns around the effectiveness of policy measures for commodity demand,” said ANZ Research in a note.

Goldman Sachs, one of the first banks to forecast a plunge to $20 a barrel before a turnaround for oil, reiterated its prediction Monday and said a near-term collective cut by Russia and major Middle Eastern producers would be highly unlikely.

A cut at this point would be self-defeating because it would jump-start prices and encourage producers to pump more, the bank said. Iran’s plan to increase production has also amplified fears of a swelling surplus. Tehran has said it won’t consider a production cut until its exports hit 1.5 million barrels a day. Adding to the worries, a record-high oil and gas condensate output of 10.73 million barrels from Russia last year is also pushing the global surplus higher.

“Crude oil prices slumped once again on supply concerns, now that the markets are eyeing another episode of higher U.S. inventories,” said OCBC in a note.

Latest data showed U.S. crude stockpiles grew for the third straight week to 8.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22, as refinery activity slowed because of seasonal maintenance. Citi Futures expects an increase of 5 million to 6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 29. U.S. crude inventories and production data for last week is scheduled for release Wednesday.

The downbeat sentiment was further fuelled by China’s latest soft manufacturing data, which registered a sixth straight month of contraction in January. However, some say the fear could be overblown as China’s oil demand will likely be supported by the industrial sector while the economy shifts toward a more services-oriented one.

Alan Oster, chief economist at National Australia Bank, said he expects China’s manufacturing and construction sector, which makes up about half of China’s economy, to grow by 8.5% this year. Moreover, oil is still needed in the services sector for transportation and freight, he added.

“I don’t see the Chinese economy falling over, but I don’t see a huge increase in demand for commodities, including oil,” Oster said.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for March NGH16, -1.02%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 36 points to $1.0794 a gallon, while March diesel traded at $1.0310, 55 points lower.

ICE gasoil for February changed hands at $294.50 a metric ton, down $4.25 from Monday’s settlement. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-drop-to-nearly-one-week-low-as-supply-worries-build-2016-02-02