Jens Erik Gould 2015年7月24日
用持续的出口来刺激欧元区经济复苏是个很有诱惑力的方法。欧洲央行的资产购买计划和希腊债务危机带来的市场恐慌，使得2015年欧元兑美元的汇率下降了10%。欧元已经快同美元等价了，现在的交易价格是1.09美元兑1欧元。今年五月，出口大国德国的贸易顺差扩大到1021亿欧元，而整个欧元区的出口额环比下降了1.5%。
瑞士信贷的专家指出，虽然欧元贬值会促进出口，但推动欧元区经济增长的关键是内部消费者，而不在外部。瑞士信贷的欧元经济部门主管称：“欧洲的成败都取决于欧元区的公司和股东。消费支出和企业支出的回升以及财政紧缩的结束才是关键。”
2011年至2013年期间，财政紧缩政策和高失业率导致欧元区的内部需求崩溃，而未来将会发生惊人逆转。数字会告诉你这个故事。在2015年第一季度，欧洲内部需求的增速达到金融危机以来的最高点，而零售业的增速也在六月达到了2.4%，创2007年以来的新高。六月的汽车销量增加了15%，创五年以来新高，并且保持了连续22个月的增长。在第一季度中，除了法国，欧洲其他主要国家的购房信贷需求皆有增加，瑞士信贷预测，贷款将继续增加。
油价下跌也促使欧洲消费者掏出钱包。若不将价格变化考虑在内，名义上的消费支出在第一季度上涨了0.6%，而实际支出则增加了1.9%， 2014年下半年和2015年初油价下跌是产生差额的主要原因。
考虑到欧洲的美好增长前景，0.2%的通货膨胀率就不甚理想。但是瑞士信贷指出，第一季度因劳动力成本和企业利润等因素导致的“内部通货膨胀”已达到了2008年以来的最高点。企业从中获利最多，企业收益增长了6%，而工资收入只上涨了1.6%。企业收益提高，将有利于促进长期的消费需求。不仅如此，公司利润率越高，越有可能增加新员工，从而降低欧洲的失业率。Hill说道：“强健的投资和就业，即使无法刺激内部需求的复苏，但也能起到维持现状的作用。”
The Key to Europe Is Domestic
On the one hand, it is tempting to make the case for a continuing Eurozone recovery based on exports alone. Thanks to the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program, as well as market jitters over the Greek debt crisis, the euro has fallen some 10 percent against the dollar in 2015. The European currency is now flirting with parity, trading at €1.09 to the dollar. Export powerhouse Germany’s trade surplus widened to a record €102.1 billion in May, even though the Eurozone as a whole saw exports decrease 1.5 percent from the previous month.
But while Credit Suisse analysts acknowledge that the weakening currency does benefit exporters, they say domestic buyers, rather than foreign ones, hold the key to European growth. “The euro area’s recovery will stand or fall on the behavior of euro area firms and households,” says Credit Suisse Head of European Economics Neville Hill. “The revival in consumer and corporate spending, as well as the end of fiscal tightening, is what matters.”
For a region where austerity measures and high unemployment caused domestic demand to collapse between 2011 and 2013, that outlook represents a stunning about-face. But the numbers tell the story. In the first quarter of 2015, European domestic demand grew faster than at any point since the financial crisis, while retail sales notched their highest growth rate since 2007 at 2.4 percent in June. Auto sales rose some 15 percent in June, the fastest pace in five years and the 22nd consecutive monthly increase. Credit demand for home purchases rose in all major European economies except for France in the first quarter, and Credit Suisse expects loan growth to continue throughout the year.
Falling oil prices have played a key role in encouraging Eurozone consumers to open their wallets. While nominal consumer spending, which doesn’t take price changes into account, rose at an annualized pace of just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, real spending levels rose 1.9 percent. Most of the difference was due to the 57 percent decline in the price of oil in the second half of 2014 and the continued weakness in early 2015.
In thinking about this rosy outlook for European growth, the region’s 0.2 percent inflation rate seems like a spoiler. But Credit Suisse points out that “domestically-generated inflation,” which consists primarily of labor costs and corporate profit margins, grew faster in the first quarter than in any other since 2008. Corporations reaped the lion’s share of that benefit, as profit margins rose some 6 percent while wages rose just 1.6 percent. But higher corporate profits should juice consumer demand in the long run. Not only that, companies with healthier margins are likely to start hiring more people, putting a dent in Europe’s high unemployment rate. “Stronger investment and employment,” Hill writes, “should sustain, if not boost, the ongoing revival in domestic demand.”
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